Question for the low pop buyers

Steelcity99

Is anyone else ever concerned that the post-1960 (and especially post-1970) low pop cards are destined to lose substantial value over the next 15 years or so? I'm just speculating that with grading gaining popularity each year and more and more raw being slabbed, that over time those 1/5's are likely to turn into 1/25's, causing a loss of value. Not so much with the older vintage since its considerably less likely that too many 9's and 10's are floating around, but with the more recent vintage it seems plausible that there are a fair amount out there ungraded that will be slabbed as it becomes almost expected over the coming years. Not a knock on grading or buying low pops, just something I was pondering while looking around and was reminded of the high prices some of them command.

fsjeter

<<over time those 1/5's are likely to turn into 1/25's>>

For that reason alone, I'll often wait a little bit to buy a low pop common if the price gets too high. There's still alot of unopened material available to get high grade mid to late 70's singles.

Scott

mikeschmidt

Not an easy question.

There are not too many post-1975 set collectors who pay premiums for low pops. With star cards - there are often an ample amount submitted to determine if a card is tough to find or not. 1975 and 1978 Topps Nolan Ryan --> they are exceedingly tough, and there is ample data out there to prove that. They go for high $$$, because they are relatively low pop for such a popular star. Will more come out? Sure. But how many is unclear. Also - there are a number of issues/players where the people collecting the set/star is growing faster than the supply of 9s - so there have been a number of places where there is some upside.

MiniMaster

A truely valid point made! However, I look at it a bit differently....just thought I'd share my thoughts

Consider the fact of how many cards have ever been printed of any card in the 50's 60's and 70's. Realize that even if graded populations of these cards reach 20-50? The populations are still extremely low considering the total number of these cards printed. This is somewhat the perception when looking at the 50's and into the 60's cards today. Yet when we start talking about the 70's it is suddenly a different story? Any current population of 70's (especially up until the mid 70's) the graded cards with populations between 5 and 10 should raise some high interest yet I see very little? Thousands upon thousands of these cards were printed, most not centered to well and many with some other kind of defect right out of the pack! Then you consider all the cards that have wear on them and will never be graded. To get a PSA 9 or 10 is still a rare thing....perhaps more collectors thinking about getting into graded card collecting will begin to look at this differently?.....maybe they won't? Perhaps it's just the fact that the number of collectors willing to spend money on graded cards has not risen to a level high enough to increase demand. I'm pretty sure its the latter......The ever boring "Supply and Demand" is usually the answer to most of these types of questions

WinPitcher

add the fact that many cards remain in collections and are put out of circulation too.

For the set I collect (65 topps baseball) any card with a pop of 30 or less is considered low IMO

That would include total cards graded in 8 and above.

a few cards, notably Smith and Gabrielson etc, are low from 7 and above.


SD