"Buy the coin, not the holder"-blah, blah, blah. The only coin that will stand its ground

RegistryCoin

The trend, due to "market grading" is an endless roller coaster. The only coin that, in this market, will stand up to the muster, time and time again, is the PCGS 70. Any thoughts?

XXX

I've noticed some weak MS70's this year in PCGS Plastic (Which I beleived belonged in 9 holders).........Seem to have "Bulk holder decorations on them". I have also seen some 69s that I would not have submitted hoping for an 8.
I too, have seen some 70's come out this year that were fantastic. I kept those.
We all have bad days, I just sucks when they are having a bad day, and your box is on their desk.

RegistryCoin

Yes, there is a variety of PCGS 70s ranging from a perfect 70 to a 9 hiding out and in need of regrading. This is the key to the discussion of all third party graded, and misgraded coins. There are dealers who sell plastic, then there are some dealers, and even more collectors like you, xxx, who know the difference between a real 70, and a 9 disguised. These people represent the resources that should be utilized to keep one from getting burned. Holding "perfect" PCGS 70s is the only sensible, and more importantly to me, relaxing thing to do in our hobby today.

wondercoin

"Holding "perfect" PCGS 70s is the only sensible, and more importantly to me, relaxing thing to do in our hobby today."

RC: I know you are personally enjoying your PCGS 70 Eagle and Ike collecting and to some extent I can appreciate your comment concerning the relaxed manner in which you can build these sets without concern that a substandard coin will appear in a higher graded holder - unless, of course, the grading companies start adopting grades MS71 and higher. However, 70 collecting is certainly not for everyone and I can think of numerous "sensible" and enjoyable things to considering collecting these days outside of the 70's market. In the modern arena, for example one could build a lovely set of raw or PR69DC Platinum Statue of Liberty coins and in doing so have in their collection (2) of the lowest (if not the very lowest) mintage coins struck in the past 100+ years of the Mint. MS Plats seem sensible to me as well- again, either raw or MS69 graded. Also, collecting any specialized area of US patterns generally gets one away from any concerns about "market grading". For example, I posted a scan on the Liberty Nickel thread right beneath this thread of the R-8 pattern Liberty Nickel that recently fetched $46,000 in PR64BN grade. Had the coin been graded PR65BN, I seriously doubt it would have commanded a single dollar more money at auction (perhaps not a $1 more even it it had been graded 2 points higher). As such, any concerns with "gradeflation" are markedly minimized with many pattern coins I believe. I could list many more things that seem very sensible to collect (both classics and moderns) outside the 70 arena.

So, 70 collecting can be great fun and a wonderful challenge (like the MS Modern Commem sets (50 cent, $ and $5 Gold) I have personally been working on for a few years now as a father-son project), but, there are also many neat non-70 projects (classic and modern) that are out there, notwithstanding the pains of "gradeflation", or "market grading" as you have mentioned.

Wondercoin

RegistryCoin

Baseball and WonderCoin: Your responses are obviously well intended, based on knowledge and experience, and for me, well respected and appreciated. Thank you for the posts.

Cameonut

This is a topic that has been visited many times on the boards.

The following are my views IMHO - relating to deep cameo proofs only:
Yes, a 70 is nicer than a 69 - but not by much. Most 70's aren't perceptibly different from a nice 69. But why do people spend so much money for a 70? For recent proofs, a 69dcam can be found for less than $15 while the 70 dcam goes for as high as $1000. I have posted before that a more reasonable price point for "common" 70dcams is more like $150-200. (I have started to see this price level on ebay now).

So, for my money, the 69 dcam will do just fine until the price of the 70dcams comes down from the Registry Set driven hype. IMO, the huge price premium is not worth the tiny improvement in quality unless you need to feed your ego on the Registry sets.

Also, look at the downside potential. If I want to sell a 69dcam, I have only about $15 invested, so I only have a $15 downside if I decide to give it away! I have found that dealers will buy 69dcams all day for about $8-10. But now look at the 70 dcams: If you bought one for big money, you have lots of potential downside. As already pointed out, the coin can turn in the holder or you can't get your money out as the prices are falling.

To be fair, lets look at upside. The 69dcams will always be common as the mass submitters sell off the coins that didn't make 70. No upside in my view. But for the 70dcams, the market is moving downward on the common dates as more and more are made. The less common dates might have some upside potential due to continued demand.

I have purchased a few 70dcams in the past - some from board members here. I stopped a couple of years ago when I wised-up. Are those dealers willing to buy back those 70dcams for what I paid for them two years ago? I don't think so. Let those dealers PM me with buyback offers and I'll change my tune.

To summarize, I don't view the proofs as a roller coaster. The 69 dcams are flat and the vast majority of 70dcams are heading downhill.

Those are my humble thoughts on the proofs. I don't have any experience with the Mint State 70's, but I can't help but wonder if the same logic applies.

ellewood

So, for my money, the 69 dcam will do just fine until the price of the 70dcams comes down from the Registry Set driven hype. IMO, the huge price premium is not worth the tiny improvement in quality unless you need to feed your ego on the Registry sets.



Isn't that the truth. Amen.

cladking

Any way someone wants to collect is the right way to do it. I'm more interested
in just finding the finest possible example most of the time but maybe I'm just
jealous that the coins I collect don't exist in MS-70.

RegistryCoin

CK- you have a way to say the right thing... It isn't so much that I have a "registry set ego". My point is about gradeflation, and I realize that it has been previously discussed.
My decision to continue to collect coins, in general, has turned my focus to what I see as "the only relaxing grade to collect". There is a ceiling on 70s, but there isn't one for 69s, or lower grades. 69s, and down, are open to upgrade, or downgrade. 70s are not affected in this manner, or at least "half" of this manner. This is what cuts down the chances of outside influences making the grade on my coins subject to change.
I have had the previlege of starting a new reg. set, without "having" to persue my "childhood dream", or, without any other emotional reason to collect a certain series. As you know, I have collected many series. I just like to collect coins, and since I could start fresh, I chose a coin series "of least resistance", and wanted to pass on my reasons for doing so.
Thanks for your comments.

dbldie55

A 70 is the only coin that cannot go up a grade. Sounds like a loser to me.

coinguy1

<< <i>69s, and down, are open to upgrade, or downgrade. 70s are not affected in this manner, or at least "half" of this manner. This is what cuts down the chances of outside influences making the grade on my coins subject to change. >>

I don't understand the line of reasoning and comfort level here.

While a coin graded a perfect 70 can't get up-graded, others graded less than 70 can and do. That affects the population (and likely the value) of the 70's.

How is the potential downside of up-grades and gradeflation any less significant with respect to coins graded 70 then? In fact, I would think that when paying large premiums for 70's, the downside would be as great as or greater than that for buying lower grade examples.

DennisH

It's all a game IMO... a game with huge downside potential and a huge risk of coins going 'bad' in the holders.

I feel exactly the same way about red copper, by the way.

lincolncentguy

Maybe the only possible partial redeeming factor for MS70 and PR70 coins would be the PCGS guarantee?

RegistryCoin

DD. Sometimes you come up with great insight, but most of the time you are simply negative. When you say "sounds like a loser", I have to acknowledge that it's your contention, but not others...
Coinguy. You don't see what makes my statements worthy? You may have an agenda, although I believe that you are sincere. I clearly explained the downside in my opinion.
Dennis. Yes it is a game. And, within that game there will be a loser and a winner....
Baseball. The "copper thing" is an untouchable subject due to the pcgs guarantee. But


<< <i> I'm not saying they won't, or that they won't go up even further, it just seems way too much risk for the potential possibilty of a reward. >>

Thanks for this comment. I have done my homework. I do not feel a risk when I learn about "grade-through rates", mintages, and bulk submission activity.

wondercoin

"Maybe the only possible partial redeeming factor for MS70 and PR70 coins would be the PCGS guarantee?"

To date, as far as I know, PCGS has addressed any and all problem-70 coins that collectors have presented.

Baseball - I believe your "cautionary" comment is especially helpful to those colllectors who may not have much experience in the area of finest known Proof Moderns and desire to "dive" in.

Another interesting point I tend to consider when analyzing the value to me personally of any 70 coin I am considering buying is the percentage increase from the 69 grade to the 70 grade. For example, there are many coins with jumps from 69 to 70 where the cost only increases by around double (ex: 69 worth around $300 and 70 around $600). There are other coins where the jump is upwards of 300x, such as coins that jump from $25 (69) to $7,500 (70). This is just another factor in the overall thought-process - of course, I am not saying the $600 coin is always a great buy or the $7,500 is always a horrible buy.

Wondercoin

coinguy1

<< <i>Coinguy. You don't see what makes my statements worthy? You may have an agenda, although I believe that you are sincere. I clearly explained the downside in my opinion. >>

I have no agenda. I merely expressed the thought, that, based upon re-grade/grade-flation factors, I didn't understand your reasoning and comfort level with regard to coins graded 70, as opposed to those graded lower. There was nothing more or less to it than that.

RegistryCoin

Interestingly, I am talking about collecting coins that "in the undergrade" sell for a small percentage over melt or current bullion buy-prices. In other series, one step below PCGS 70, there is relatively no understandable premium.

braddick

The same logic can be applied to collecting PO01 coins. No where to go and you can certainly sleep well at night knowing the grade (read: jumps up to FA02) won't change.

RegistryCoin

Pat. Throughout my thought process on this concept, I have always had, in the back of my mind, that one of your personal fortes perfectly "fills the bill". Thank you for not generalizing, and seeing my point.

Coinguy. I have been unfair to you, and your comment(s). What is critical, and I blew this part of my discussion, is that, one has to do a considerable amount of homework to understand that "just buying 70s" is not what I am talking about, and you point this out. Buying 70s in a very specific series that provide opportunities for benefit is what I had in mind. Please, lets all understand that I do not feel that all PCGS 70s are worth our attention. One MUST get a feel, through their personal efforts and education, to be able to find those series that provide the opportunities I have mentioned.
I started this thread to cause a discussion within the reg. set forum realm, that hopefully brings some fun, interaction, and perhaps education. I learn from your comments, and respect your efforts. Sometimes, in a "business-like" attempt to write with brevity, I miss some "real" issues.
Thank you for putting me on the right track.

RegistryCoin

Baseball. It is a difficult task, as you and I and WonderCoin, Coinguy and others, refer to, to make sure that our comments our not taken in a context that a presentation is designed for "new" collectors. This IS the registry forum, and any information offered has to be taken within the context that we are experienced and serious.

RegistryCoin

This is a very good point, and perhaps why PCGS feels that our discussions of "sales" should be curtailed. What we discuss is available information that could be misused. As I said, and I will emphasize continually in the future, we, as "clued" collectors, have done our homework, have the knowledge gained from that homework, and do not offer all of our knowledge... just parts, and pieces.

ColonialCoinUnion

<< <i>Also, collecting any specialized area of US patterns generally gets one away from any concerns about "market grading". For example, I posted a scan on the Liberty Nickel thread right beneath this thread of the R-8 pattern Liberty Nickel that recently fetched $46,000 in PR64BN grade. Had the coin been graded PR65BN, I seriously doubt it would have commanded a single dollar more money at auction (perhaps not a $1 more even it it had been graded 2 points higher). As such, any concerns with "gradeflation" are markedly minimized with many pattern coins I believe. I could list many more things that seem very sensible to collect (both classics and moderns) outside the 70 arena.

Wondercoin >>



Excellent example about the R-8 pattern nickel. Rare colonials behave in much the same way, whereby a 1 point or 2 or 5 or more point difference in grade can impact the value not at all.

I collect colonials, and I consider myself to be both sensible, and relaxed.

RegistryCoin

Thanks for the learning experience, and the response.