Investing in modern RCs....

CDsNuts

Hi guys,

Just wanted to see if any of you have a particular player or card that you have been buying low in the hopes of selling high when the player breaks out. Not talking about cards like Pujols or Brady that have already skyrocketed. It's always fun to go on a hunch even if you only buy a couple. Mine is........................drumroll please........................ 2001/02 SPx Andrei Kirilenko RC.

Here's my reasoning: Last year, he was the most dominant player in the NBA for the first quarter of the season doing everything for the Jazz who were atop the West. For the first time since Pistol Pete, the Jazz were running and gunning, outscoring people and playing a fun style of basketball. Kirilenko was the early favortie for MVP scoring around 20 a game, but letting the offense run through him and completely dominating on defense (averaging something like 6 blocks a game at SF!!). Basically, he was doing for the Jazz what Nash did for the Suns. Then at the end of Nov. he sprained his knee, and later in the year sprained his wrist and all went downhill for the Jazz. This year, he bulked up over the summer so he could avoid injury, and they drafted an immediate starter at PG in Deron Williams from Illinois, a great passer who can hopefully get the ball to Kirlenko, Boozer, and Harpring. Currently the SPx RC is selling at $8-$15 and it hit around $40 last year when he was playing well.
I'm trying to get as many as I can. (Then again, I also did the same thing with Shareef Abdur-Rahim RCs back in 1998 and we all know how that turned out).

Anybody doing anything similar?

Lee

Boopotts

"I'm trying to get as many as I can. (Then again, I also did the same thing with Shareef Abdur-Rahim RCs back in 1998 and we all know how that turned out)."

I think you did fine with Shareef. He's had a very solid career, and it isn't over yet. The one thing you cannot predict at all is 'hobby buzz'. Some guys get it, fewer still get it and keep it, and most never get it at all. Unfortunately Shareef falls in this third group; but I wouldn't kick yourself thinking that you loaded up on a dud.

I'd stay away from Kirilenko because white, foreign born players don't tend to generate much hobby interest. Guys like Peja, Dirk, etc. don't seem to demand that kind of prices that you would think their accomplishments would demand. When it comes to basketball I look for swingmen who have some 'street cred' and are explosive athletically.

CDsNuts

I agree with you about the foreign players thing on a long term basis, but if you look at Peja and Dirk SP Auth. RCs, they both hit around $50-75 when they had their breakout seasons then cooled off. I'd like to get rid of the AK47 RCs at around $50, and a phenomenal half season should be enough to push them that high. Let's hope he can stay healthy.

Lee

eyebone

I did this for a couple of years with football....basically picked a rookie I thought had some promise (both on the field and in the hobby) and then bought up a whack of their cards. I tried to pick guys who were sort of second tier so the prices wouldn't be too high. I was 0 for 2: back about 4 years ago I went with QB Chris Redman (Louisville Cardinals to the Ravens) and then followed that disaster up with QB Marques Tuiassosopo (Washington Huskies to the Raiders) who seems very adept at carrying a clipboard...

Eyebone

Boopotts

Actually, one guy I kind of like is Aaron Rodgers. In the NFL going to a decent franchise means everything. God knows it worked for Elway, and it will probably work for Eli as well. Also, you get no 'hobby love' if you go to a lousy team. When was the last time an Arizona Cardinal, or Bengal, or Saint, sustained any kind of hobby buzz? You really have to go to a team that has a history of winning if you want to have a hobby impact, and the Packers at least have that. Plus, he'll be able to sit all year learn from a master. This guy is going to totally fly under the radar for the next year or so, but when he finally gets a chance to start the fans will be behind him (Packers fans are some of the most supportive out there). It's easy to forget that he had a shot to go first in the draft, so I think he probably has the arm and the smarts to succeed in the NFL. Whether he does or not is, of course, another story entirely.

ctsoxfan

Football is probably the toughest to do this with - I should know, I try almost every year. In 2003, I was on the Anquan Boldin bandwagon even before pre-season. Trouble is, I never sold any of his cards...and I'll bet they never hit those same numbers again. Last year, I bought some Big Ben stuff early, but it wasn't long before the hype took over. So, I went with some lesser known QB's - and I think I might be rewarded this season with J.P. Losman in Buffalo. Time will tell - one injury can shift the players (and his cards) fortunes in a heartbeat.

jrdolan

Gregg Jefferies, Mike Greenwell, and Wally Joyner. All of 'em "can't miss" studs. Surefire investments: Buy as many as you can and tuck 'em away for huge profits in a few years.

Oops. I was daydreaming about the late '80s again. Sorry.

abc

...what about tiger's 2001 spa rc? With a possible 3rd major this year, should we not see a major surge? This card has stayed level EVEN after winning 2 major....

2dueces

I speculated on rookies from 1989-1991...Did real good on 6 or 7. But, the key is to be willing to sell all of them when they are hot!!! I refused to do this on 2.. although I did flip most of them and did very well. I wont get into naming all of them, I can say 7 of 60 panned out and 2 looked like HOFer's. I recently purchased a lot of 539 rookies from the 1 modern set I build every year. 2004 SP rookies and prospects. Prolly not high $$ cards even if I get 6 or 7 of the 55 players to pan out. I guess you would call this group speculation. BTW, the lot only cost me $26.00. So not a big investment, even if they all fail. Out