How would PCGS handle their grading guarantee if....

gyocomgd · July 31, 2005 1:21AM

They slabbed a 1986, '88 or '95 American Silver Eagle at MS70 and it spotted a year later? I ask because their price guide lists them for only $7,500.
And, is it the one thing that would prompt them to change the silly values on their price guide, which they've stubbornly kept there for at least a year?
This is a takeoff on a previous thread about their overpricing certain coins.

BAJJERFAN · July 31, 2005 1:30AM

Well FWIW it IS only a guide and not an obligation to pay anything on PCGS's part. I'm certain they would come up with some sort of current market value which, of course, you are free to challenge.

wondercoin · July 31, 2005 1:44AM

My 2 cents:

I am not sure what price PCGS would come up with if they get back a spotted up MS70 Silver Eagle under their grading guarantee, BUT, why I personally believe the "$7,500" guide price is too high (and, of course, others may disagree and believe it is too low) is for (2) distinct reasons:

1. Assuming a spotted up MS70 Silver Eagle, it would not grade MS70 today. Since many of the Mint State Silver Eagles naturally spot / tone (not so much the Proof Silver Eagle series from my experience but primarily the MS coins), I would not be surprised if many, perhaps most, of the "MS70" coins have developed spots naturally (through no fault of PCGS).

2. I believe PCGS stopped slabbing MS70 Silver Eagles around 4-5 years ago as a result of the obvious spotting problem. For example, this year, PCGS has graded 35,952 MS69 Silver Eagles already with -0- MS70 (in the past several years, the count on MS70's is also -0-). Assuming the spotting issue ever gets resolved with the US Mint and MS Silver Eagles begin slabbing out even at the same (low) rate as very difficult Platinum MS coins (say around 1%-2% throughout the series), there would have been roughly 36-72 MS70 Silver Eagles alone for this year! Hence, these coins, IMHO, would not be "$7,500" coins, but a small fraction of that price.

It is the COMBINATION of the (2) reasons above why IMHO I personally would not care if collectors were, in fact, "fighting" for the current existing coins (graded many years ago) at $7,500 - I would simply not be valuing the coins at multiples of MS70 $100 Plats (which trade at around under $3,500 and up and contain around $900 of base metal in them as opposed to $7 in silver content) or $50 MS70 Gold Eagles (which trade at under $1,000 with base metal at close to $425).

I would be interested in hearing from anyone out there who disagrees with this analysis as I am always interested in hearing the other side - perhaps from any MS70 Silver Eagle owners who believe the pricing at $7,500 is just right or even too low.

Wondercoin

gyocomgd · July 31, 2005 1:50AM

The pressing question is, then why won't they lower the insane $7,500 by oh, say, 1000%?

wondercoin · July 31, 2005 1:56AM

I suspect KNOWLEDGE from the boards (Jamie) who runs the Price Guide is studying the issue and the pricing on these coins. This is a very unique issue - I am personally not aware of any other modern MS or Proof coin that spots like MS Silver Eagles do (although, as I mentioned, Proof Silver Eagles to a far lesser extent).

Wondercoin

BAJJERFAN · July 31, 2005 2:06AM

<< The pressing question is, then why won't they lower the insane $7,500 by oh, say, 1000%? >>

Obviously its not a pressing priority at PCGS.

It looks like they have graded only 12 ms70's for ALL years so its basically gonna be pretty much impossible to have a full set of the things in ms70 unless you go to another grading company like NGC? ANACS? ACG? ICG? In that light I would think that they are worth nowhere near $7500; esp with the next lower grade being relatively common.

PerryHall · July 31, 2005 2:17AM

If someone sent in a spotted MS70 for the grade guarantee, all PCGS would have to do is replace the coin with a newly created MS70 coin of the same date.

kranky · July 31, 2005 2:25AM

<< The pressing question is, then why won't they lower the insane $7,500 by oh, say, 1000%? >>

I don't think you can do that mathematically. Lowering it 100% is as far as you can go.

BAJJERFAN · July 31, 2005 2:27AM

<< If someone sent in a spotted MS70 for the grade guarantee, all they would have to do is replace the coin with a newly created MS70 coin of the same date. >>

So you think that they have a few in the back room to use as replacements?

Bochiman · July 31, 2005 2:29AM

As someone who has recently used their grade guarantee, they do not just use their own price guide.
They use "Fair Market Value"....FMV.
They also don't use what you paid....

So, I bought a 1968-s Pr69DCam Kennedy that developed a spot in the holder. It was sent back and bagged for environmental damage.
I paid $200+shipping.
They paid me ~$300.

Their price guide shows $450 at the time I sent it in.
I would have loved to get paid that much.
I would have been ok with full reimbursement of what I paid.

Instead, it was in the middle and I made a few bucks for my effort.

BAJJERFAN · July 31, 2005 2:54AM

<< They also don't use what you paid.... >>

Of course not; you are the sole judge if what you paid is proper.

WACoinGuy · July 31, 2005 3:08AM

Which begs the question, why isn't their price guide just the FMV that they use in determining what to pay for the grading guarantee? Seems that's a more accurate reflection of actual value...

BAJJERFAN · July 31, 2005 3:18AM

Which begs the question, why isn't their price guide just the FMV that they use in determining what to pay for the grading guarantee? Seems that's a more accurate reflection of actual value...

xxxxxxxxxx

Probly cuz they don't pay out on every different coin!! The guide would be woefully incomplete and out of date!!

gyocomgd · July 31, 2005 3:41AM

<< Which begs the question, why isn't their price guide just the FMV that they use in determining what to pay for the grading guarantee? Seems that's a more accurate reflection of actual value... >>

Exactly the point I was hoping someone would make.

gyocomgd · July 31, 2005 3:43AM

<< 

<< The pressing question is, then why won't they lower the insane $7,500 by oh, say, 1000%? >>

I don't think you can do that mathematically. Lowering it 100% is as far as you can go.

>>

Right, thanks. I was thinking if it were worth $75 and it was increased by 1000%, that would be $7,500.

I need to devote 101% of my effort to improving my math.

RegistryCoin · July 31, 2005 4:10AM

<< << Which begs the question, why isn't their price guide just the FMV that they use in determining what to pay for the grading guarantee? Seems that's a more accurate reflection of actual value... >> >>

The FMV is a moving target. Even if two guys get together to exchange money for coins, they don't know the FMV until they shake hands. It would be impossible to "publish" what changes from moment to moment. A price guide is just that. I don't think anyone can ask for anything more.

RegistryCoin · July 31, 2005 4:14AM

<< And, is it the one thing that would prompt them to change the silly values on their price guide, which they've stubbornly kept there for at least a year? >>

Spotted Eagles are problems, hopefully on their way to extinction. Next question is, will a new mint product spot? I hope not, but we'll have to wait to see. In my collection of Eagles, I simply ignore the ms70 silver Eagles , just like they never existed.

WACoinGuy · July 31, 2005 8:19AM

<< 

<< << Which begs the question, why isn't their price guide just the FMV that they use in determining what to pay for the grading guarantee? Seems that's a more accurate reflection of actual value... >> >>

The FMV is a moving target. Even if two guys get together to exchange money for coins, they don't know the FMV until they shake hands. It would be impossible to "publish" what changes from moment to moment. A price guide is just that. I don't think anyone can ask for anything more. >>

The way Bochiman described it, it sounded like PCGS made an offer for his coin of $300 based on FMV. Unless there was back and forth negotiating on their part of the price (which it sounds like there wasn't since he said he would have been OK with $200), they had to have pulled that value from somewhere.

relayer · July 31, 2005 8:32AM

Compare the words used in the phrases "Price Guide" and "Fair Market Value"

They don't seem the same to me

Russ · July 31, 2005 8:48AM

<< The way Bochiman described it, it sounded like PCGS made an offer for his coin of $300 based on FMV. Unless there was back and forth negotiating on their part of the price (which it sounds like there wasn't since he said he would have been OK with $200), they had to have pulled that value from somewhere. >>

In the case of his coin determining FMV would have been a very easy process. A quick check of eBay or TT would come up with dozens of sales. Not so easy with something like an MS70 SAE that is far, far less common.

Russ, NCNE

ziggy29 · July 31, 2005 8:57AM

<< The pressing question is, then why won't they lower the insane $7,500 by oh, say, 1000%? >>

Then it would list for negative $67,500!

FullStrike · July 31, 2005 9:09AM

Interesting concept - Fair Market Value vs Price Guide.

So how do I determine fair market value on Coins I want to bid on thru eBay. Like a true beginner I've been looking at the PCGS Price Guide, obviously not a good thing to continue doing.

What's a better way to determine value?

WACoinGuy · July 31, 2005 9:31AM

<< 

<< The way Bochiman described it, it sounded like PCGS made an offer for his coin of $300 based on FMV. Unless there was back and forth negotiating on their part of the price (which it sounds like there wasn't since he said he would have been OK with $200), they had to have pulled that value from somewhere. >>

In the case of his coin determining FMV would have been a very easy process. A quick check of eBay or TT would come up with dozens of sales. Not so easy with something like an MS70 SAE that is far, far less common.

Russ, NCNE >>

Exactly my point -- if you wanted a more accurate price guide (at least for more common coins), it wouldn't be hard to put together one. You could probably write a program that would automate it.

BAJJERFAN · July 31, 2005 9:46AM

<< So how do I determine fair market value on Coins I want to bid on thru eBay. Like a true beginner I've been looking at the PCGS Price Guide, obviously not a good thing to continue doing. >>

Depends on how badly you want the coin; if you want it at all costs just bid $1000 over what the price guides and auction archives say its worth. If you use the auction archives to set smoe sort of reasonable (I won't pay more than x amount) value then be prepared to lose a lot since its likely there are others who are willing to pay a bit more than you.

WACoinGuy · July 31, 2005 9:54AM

<< 

<< So how do I determine fair market value on Coins I want to bid on thru eBay. Like a true beginner I've been looking at the PCGS Price Guide, obviously not a good thing to continue doing. >>

Depends on how badly you want the coin; if you want it at all costs just bid $1000 over what the price guides and auction archives say its worth. If you use the auction archives to set smoe sort of reasonable (I won't pay more than x amount) value then be prepared to lose a lot since its likely there are others who are willing to pay a bit more than you. >>

Just hope there isn't someone else who's doing the same thing!

BAJJERFAN · July 31, 2005 10:13AM

<< Just hope there isn't someone else who's doing the same thing! >>

Yeah

tho I think it would be pretty rare for me to set my snipe $1000 above smoe reasonable value.

How would PCGS handle their grading guarantee if....

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