Fun with stats, like when we were kids

jrdolan

When I was a kid poring through the stats on the backs of baseball cards, I would play all sorts of games with numbers (with stats determining who deserved to be at the top of the stack, rather than the assigned number on the card). In a moment of nostalgia, I feel like doing that this morning.

Who puts up the best power / speed numbers in the majors? The surprise answer is ... Scott Posednik. Even with zero HR, his 51 SB is more than anyone else's HR / SB total.

Of course, this is off-the-charts silly. SB don't have the same impact on the game as HRs, and Posednik only has 18 RBI to go with those zero HR. So let's confine the list to those who have some stick (at least 10 HR) to go with their wheels. Would you have guessed Carl Crawford?

Carl Crawford 12 HR + 34 SB = 46
Derek Lee 32 + 12 = 44
Bobby Abreu 18 + 23 = 41
Alfonso Soriano 25 + 14 = 39
A-Rod 28 + 9 = 36

This is still faulty because it gives SB the same weight as HR. Without trying to make this an exact science, let's just say a HR is worth 3 times as much as a SB. In fantasy ball, a dinger adds to HR, RBI (at least 1), and boosts the BA. But a SB is just that, a SB. It does get the runner closer to being able to score a run, but then a HR can generate anywhere from 1 to 4 runs. It gets complicated. I'm just settling on a weight of 3 for HR and 1 for SB.

Lee 32 (96) + 12 = 108
A.Jones 32 (96) + 2 = 98
A-Rod 28 (84) + 9 = 93
Pujols 27 (81) + 11 = 92
Soriano 25 (75) + 14 = 89
Teixeira 28 (84) + 4 = 88
Ramirez 28 (84) + 1 = 85
Ensberg 26 (78) +6 = 84
Abreu 18 (54) + 23 = 77
Crawford 12 (36) + 34 = 70

Now we see some familar names at the top, but note that this does NOT take into account poor batting average, inability to take a walk, or a mediocre rate of success at stealing. It's a simple numbers game using HR and SB.

Crawford drops from 1st to 10th, and of course Posednik is wayyyyyy down the list. A fantasy leaguer might say, "Hold on. In my 4x4 (or 5x5) league, SBs are weighted the same as HRs. They don't help in the RBI or BA categories like HRs do, but SB are in shorter supply and each SB has a greater impact within its category than a HR does." Hmmm, I guess so. So Crawford and Posednik are worth more in fantasy ball than in real baseball?

Fun with numbers. Someone else can follow this train of thought if they care to.

wufdude

Interesting. If you've read Moneyball, there's some pretty interesting discussions about stats in there including how much Billy Beane hates the SB!

julen23

This is interesting. When I spoke w/ the reporter from Money magazine yesterday at Nationals, he said he had spent the night before hanging out w/ a bunch of vendors who are attempting to create some online "stock market" indicator for baseball cards. He admitted that they seemed to have a lot of work to do and even more work raising $$$ to finance such a thing.

Perhaps the people considering the "bb card stock market" should read this thread and create a "stock market stat indicator" .... heheh

Julen

jrdolan

<< <i>Perhaps the people considering the "bb card stock market" should read this thread and create a "stock market stat indicator" .... heheh >>


TimeMachine woulda bought Posednik halfway through the 2nd paragraph, sold him and bought Crawford halfway through the 3rd paragraph, then dumped Crawford before the rest of the market started reading the paragraph that starts "This is still faulty."

Nothing personal, TM, just pokin' fun at daytraders in general.

gosteelers

<< <i>Interesting. If you've read Moneyball, there's some pretty interesting discussions about stats in there including how much Billy Beane hates the SB! >>



Every year I say, look, 'Moneyball' isn't doing $hit this year, and every year, around June, the A's go nuts and win 25 of 30 games and get back in the race...Unbelievable...I personally love the SB and it's affect on the game...Remember the early '80s Cards and how they used to create havoc on the basepaths? I loved it...

Mark

wufdude

Yeah, I think the SB is definitely an exciting part of the game however it is interesting to hear Beane's philosophy on its lack of value.

Isn't (or wasn't, not sure if it's still around) ThePit.com similar to a sports card stock market?

dallasactuary

If I had the time and access to the stats I would love to pursue this train of thought a lot further; it would be kind of like discovering a unified theory of the universe to develop a single stat that told you immediately how good a player was.

I think the foundation of this hypothetical stat would be the "base" - how many bases you earned for yourself (hits, walks, HBP, SB, etc.) is probably 75% or more of the equation. Things like runs scored and RBI, to the degree that they are not readily explainable by your own "bases", are mostly a reflection of how good your teammates are - and this should have absolutely no impact on your own rating. If the best player in the league plays for a team that wins 50 games, he's still the best player in the league.

Most of the rest of the equation would be a measure of how likely your bases are to advance players on other bases. What I mean by this is, not all bases are equal. If you steal a base, that's one for you. Period. If you hit a dinger, that's four for you, and probably several more for your team. Realistically, I think a home run is worth at least 5 times a stolen base, probably more like 6 or 7 (and once you net out the times caught stealing, a home run is probably at least 10 times more valuable to a team than a stolen base). Even among singles, there is a difference between a solid line drive and beating out an infield dribbler. One base for you either way, but nobody's going to score from second on your dribbler down the third base line (except Willie Mays Hays).

MajorDanby

dallas....you're logic is the same as beane's and depodesta's...except they think the SB is useless because they are more concerned with "getting bases" when you are up to bat.

wufdude

Moneyball discusses this very issue in terms of dividing the playing field into grids and tracking where a player's hits fall, etc. Pretty interesting stuff but makes you wonder if this game is really all about throw the ball, hit the ball, catch the ball.....

dallasactuary

<< <i>dallas....you're logic is the same as beane's and depodesta's...except they think the SB is useless because they are more concerned with "getting bases" when you are up to bat. >>



I haven't read their theories, but I'm probably pretty close to their thinking. Theoretically, it is possible to have two players who are alike in all respects except that player 1 steals 100 more bases a year and gets caught 20 more times while player 2 hits 12 more homers. I'll take player 2.

In the game today in 2005, where a big base stealer might steal 40 more bases and get caught 10 more times - I'll take a guy who can hit just 5 more home runs. A stolen base isn't worthless but it is by far the most overrated statistic in baseball (offensive stat anyway; nothing will ever approach the "Save" for worthlessness). Where it does have some hidden value, as gosteelers alluded to, is in the distraction value it poses to pitchers. However, I think the way for pitchers to neutralize this added value is to simply ignore the runner most of the time; pitch from the stretch, check on him now and then, but mostly be aware that getting the current batter out is much more important than keeping the runner off second base.

wufdude

"Where it does have some hidden value, as gosteelers alluded to, is in the distraction value it poses to pitchers. "


This is where you'd differ from Moneyball. Everything Beane and Depo did was based on objectiveness. "A distraction value" is purely subjective.

WinPitcher

I wonder who would be on top if you added hits and homers together career wise? That is active of course.

Steve

NickM

The best basestealers also will create a lot of opportunities for hitters behind them - especially lefthanded ground ball hitters. A first baseman holding a runner on can't cover much ground.

Basestealing is also associated with the ability to take an extra base on a hit or an outfield fly, both of which are of value to a team.

BTW, why not go for the traditional power/speed number: (2 times HRs times SBs) divided by (HR + SB)?

Nick