Will Mike Mussina make the Hall of Fame if he gets 300 wins?

Gemmy10

What if he gets 300+ wins but has no 20 Game Win season? I think he would still make the HOF. He has come close several times with two 19 game win years and several high teens. I think he will get a 20 Game winning year during his career....maybe this year but it will be very close. Has any 300 game winner ever failed to win 20 games in a season?

Mike Mussina (Carreer 221-124)

I call him Mellow Mike.

Axtell

What makes you think that at age 36, in the twilight of his career, he will pull out 20 wins somehow?

He won't make 300 wins (He needs nearly 80 more, and that's 6 more 14 or so win season).

That being said, a good pitcher, but not HoF worthy.

Gemmy10

Twighlight? He is still pitching very good. What makes you think he won't average 16 games for 5 years?

Axtell

<< <i>Twighlight? He is still pitching very good. What makes you think he won't average 16 games for 5 years? >>



Uhm because he's never had a 5 year stretch of winning 16 games in his career perhaps?

The best he's been able to do over any 5 year stretch in his career is:

18
14
16
19
19

And that is when he was 23-28 years old.

joestalin

300 wins means a lot in my book in todays game, much more than 500 homers. Anyone who can win that many games should be in the hall.

JS

Gemmy10

17, 18, 17, 12 the last 4 years and probably 16+ this year. What does that average out to? You didn't answer the orignal question.

Gemmy10

joestalin, yes 300 wins will be a shoe-in and there are not going to be nearly as many in this age of 5 man rotations. JS, we have had our difference but at times we agree. On the other hand, Axtey will just take the other side to be annoying.

Axtell

In order to answer the question, you have to make the assumption he gets to 300 wins.

ANY pitcher who gets to 300 wins will be a lock, even if it means 25 years to get it. That's the mentality of the typical fan (and voter) nowadays, so fixated on nice round numbers.

Yes spammy, if Mussina gets to 300 wins, he'll make the hall. He won't get to 300 wins though, simply because he isn't durable enough to get there. I mentioned the 5 year run of 16 wins solely because he's never had a 5 year run like that, and what are the odds that, at age 36, he'll start one?

DeutscherGeist

Axt,

He did average 16 wins a year for a 5 year period. It does not matter if he gets 12 wins one year and 21 the other as long as it all averages out. Come on, you know that.

Your argument that he may not be durable enough. OK, that's valid. But even with that, we don't really know. He is not injury, so he has that working for him. He is a finesse pitcher, so he that working for him.
He might get 300 wins. There is a chance. If he does, he is in. That's how the voters do their votes.


I don't know if he will get in right now though. I think he will be left behind in the vote along with David Cone, Dwight Gooden, Kevin Brown, David Wells, Orel Hershiser and others in that class. We took a poll here not too long ago about Cone's chances and no one was enthusiastic about that. Heck, Tom Glavine might not make it.

Axtell

My point is that he has a lot of years with 10, 11, 12 wins....and not being an ardent follower of his, I can only assume that's due to injuries?

I just don't see a guy with his history being able to stick it out for 5, 6, 7 more years and garnering those 300 wins...time will tell though.

frankhardy

Gemmy10,

The answer to your question is yes - IF he gets to 300 wins, he will get in. But that's a big if. I mean, if Juan Pierre ends up with 600 homeruns, he will get in too - but that's just not likely. I know that is sort of an exagerated analogy, but it gets the point across.

Skinpinch

Wins of course aren't the best measure to define a pitcher. However, since HOF voters are in love with that stat, then lets look at it.

He is playing in an era where wins from SP aren't the same from years past, due to reasons everyone knows of already. There just aren't many 20 game winners in a season. So lets look at how he ranked on the yearly leaderboard in wins.....

1,2,2,3,4,5,6,6,8. Not bad, with SIX top five finishes and four top three finishes. That is HOF material there.

I still cannot fathom to put my name on an analysis that just uses wins. I just can't do that knowing how faulty a measure that is. So I have to add his ERA+ finishes to at put a little validity to the looksie.

ERA+ finishes....
2,2,3,4,4,5,7,7,8. SIX top five finishes, and THREE top three finishes.

Add in pretty good Innings Pitched finishes, and Mussina has done well. He hasn't done any better than Bert Blyleven had though.

Unless he gets 300 wins though, I don't think the writers would put him in. If they recognize that 300 wins from now on will be extremely difficult, then he may get a pass with 280 wins or something. WHo knows.

WinPitcher

Another player that quietly went about his business, if Mussina does reach that milestone I see no reason for his exclusion. What i do see is him in retirement before that happens. However if in fact he does reach 300 wins his winning pct would be at or above 650 or somthing similar. Outstanding big game pitcher too.


Skin as usual great post, thanks for the info.


Steve

DeutscherGeist

Kevin Brown
CY Young finishes: 62366
ERA+ : 6144433

6 top 5 finishes in ERA+
ranks 100 all time for eating up innings.

David Cone
CY Young: 31446
SO: 24112464354
ERA+ : 68273 10 4

7 top 10 finishes in ERA+
Ranks 19th all time for SO




Dwight Gooden
CY Young: 21754
ERA+ : 2177
SO: 1149829





I am just trying to compare Mussina's contemporaries to see how distinguished this guy is. It is very likely he will never break the top 10 in ERA+. All three pitchers listed above have either been leaders in SO, Wins, ERA, shutouts, innings pitched and so on.


I guess I should have put wins up there as well, but all three pitchers have been ranked #1 in that with a lot of top 5 finishes.

It seems that Brown, Mussina and Cone are even in ERA. Added that they have done well in seasonal wins and eat up innings well. If you put in Mussina, then why not Cone and Brown? The thing is that Mussina does not pull away from this crowd so convincingly. Like skin pinch pointed out. Mussina's numbers are still not better than Bert Blyleven's when put into context of course.

I don't know if Mussina can get anymore black ink numbers. He could finish in the top 10 in wins, but things would have to go his way for now on. I have not checked the league rank in ERA this year, but he leads the Yankees--that is not saying much.



I am not ready to throw in the towel on any of these players as we need to crunch some more numbers. I mean, the fact that Brown never won the CY Young award does not mean he did not have a dominant year like when he led the MLB in ERA+. Cone could not accomplish that, but he did earn a CY Young. Cone is 19th all time in SO and has led in SO twice.

WinPitcher

Good post Giest, didnt cone also lead the majors one yr but didnt lead either league? I think he went from Mets to Blue jays one year and did that.

Has any 300 game winner ever failed to win 20 games in a season?

gemmy i do not think so. I think Sutton came close , he had one (21) if memory serves me.

Throwdown

<< <i>300 wins means a lot in my book in todays game, much more than 500 homers. Anyone who can win that many games should be in the hall.

JS >>



Agreed.

DeutscherGeist

Yes, Cone did win the SO title in MLB, but in neither league because of a trade. He lost the league title by one strikeout against John Smoltz. We need to give that credit to Cone and not forget that when evaluating him. I mean strikeouts do not indicate that a pitcher is necessarily good, but Cone did dominate in that category. He was a big game high pressure pitcher, but that does not show up in numbers necessarily. The fact he transitioned from power pitcher to finesse was amazing and speaks volumes as to the champion and warrior he was.


So, as far as Mussina, Cone and Brown go, I cannot shut the door on their HOF credentials. It all depends on how they end up ranking against their peers. So far, we have Maddux, Clemens, Johnson that are shoe ins right now. Then maybe in the second tier, Smoltz and Glavine. Can we take in any more pitchers, or is 5 the limit in any 20 year span? I am all for not diluting the HOF, but how many pitchers is fair to take?

WinPitcher

Glavine all but blew his chance the day he signed that mets contract. Smoltz is a possiblity as he was a fairly dominant pitcher and do not forget how he transformed into a reliever too. As for Cone , mussina and Brown I just think that they will fall short.

as for how many are too many? that is hard to answer as if a player is deserving (for whatever reason) he should get in. I wouldnt think that the voters would care, but then again they may have left out Morris, blyleven, kaat and John for the very reasons you speak of possibly.

Steve

SDSportsFan

<< <i>.....Has any 300 game winner ever failed to win 20 games in a season? >>




I think Don Sutton is the closest...he had one 20-win season, 1976, when he went 21 - 10.


Steve

WinPitcher

Yep Steve that is what i thought, he did however have somthing like 5 19 win years.


Steve D

SDSportsFan

<< <i>Yep Steve that is what i thought, he did however have somthing like 5 19 win years.


Steve D >>




Actually, Sutton only had two 19-win seasons; 1972 and 1974. He also had one 18-win, and three 17-win seasons.


Steve

WinPitcher

Jeese, my memory is getting worse by the day. for some reason i saw all those 19 win seasons on the back of his card (or so I thought)

perhaps I was thinking about jim Bunning, not that he has 300 wins.

Thanks for the clarification.

At least i did remm that he was the guy with 300 and only one 20 win season.


Sd

SDSportsFan

Steve,

At least you didn't do as bad as I did on that 1969 to present World Series winner thread


Steve

WinPitcher

Steve I didnt even try it! I only knew the real early dates cuz they was when i was growing up. and would read baseball digest and such.

Sd

Gemmy10

Who knows more Axtey, who does not know how to calculate a moving average let alone a simple average of 2 numbers, or baseball-reference.com?

Black Ink: Pitching - 14 (146) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 212 (31) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 45.0 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 101.0 (87) (Likely HOFer > 100)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mussimi01.shtml

DeutscherGeist

Gemmy, I know about the baseball reference. It really is a good guide. The Hall Monitor indicates that both David Cone and Mike Mussina belong in the HOF. It indicates that mattingly should be in as well.

There is only a limited amount of players one can induct per era. I mean, we must select the top pitchers that have distinguished themselves from the pack. I don't know if there is enough room for Mussina and Cone. Its possible though.

Axtell

Spammy you really are pathetic aren't you?

ANY pitcher who gets 300 wins, yes, even Mussina (even if it takes him 30 years) will get into the hall.

My point (as it was obviously lost on you) was that he's obviously not been durable enough in the past for any stretch of time. I am not talking averages, I am talking raw numbers man.

When a guy can't sustain a run of 15, 16 wins because of injury, that speaks volumes as to his durability. Even more so in the twilight of his career (and yes, spammy, 36 is the twilight of most pitcher's careers - not everyone is Clemens or Unit, who can pitch past 40).

I see Mussina getting to about 275, and not having enough juice to not get to 300....keeping him out of the hall.

Gemmy10

Moose Mussina is in great shape. Last year he only won 12 games and was injured for about 3 weeks. That is it. He is as durable as they come. Learn how to add 4, 3, or even 2 numbers together and take an average. I will make it easy for you. What is the average of one number, how about the number 16?

And now a message bought to you by the Gemmeister (just put 2001 Mariner uniforms on the Red Sox players and close your eyes and pretend)



Excedrin Headache #100


Boone Boom


Celebrate

Axtell

You might want to kill those photos...not everyone is on broadband, and those huge photos of you trying to live down the biggest choke in sports history is really going to peeve a lot of folks on dialup.

DeutscherGeist

74 wins to go.

I think because he is not injury prone and a finesse pitcher, I believe he can get in 200 innings a season for a few more years. He is doing very well right now, but its a long road ahead.


I think Glavine has the best chance now. He is very strong this year and would not need all of next season to get to 300. He is real close and he is pitching very effectively. Its a matter of time. I doubt Glavine will have a hard time finding a team that will sign him next year.

softparade

Mike Mussina is not "durable"? Shut up Axtell, you don't have a clue as to what you are TRYING to talk about. Mike Mussina has the wins that he DOES have because he has been exceptionaly DURABLE throughout his career. Now, 300 wins is a LONG SHOT for him but to say he has not been durable is complete bull $hit.

Axtell

Softy-

Has Mussina not missed starts in each of the last 2 years due to the same troublesome elbow? Last year he went down in late august, when his team needed him most.

I don't see this guy getting the 70+ wins needed to get to 300, that's all.

80sToyguy

I agree with most of what's being said, DeutscherGeist don't forget about Pedro being right in the middle of your two tiers (not in the Maddux/Clemens/Johnson group yet but definitely has a better shot than Glavine or Smoltz if all of thier careers ended tomorrow). Dominance can get you in just as easily as longevity, just ask Sandy Koufax. I do believe Mussina is in for sure if he reaches 300 wins, but that's realistically nearly impossible for him because of his age. JS made a good point too by saying maybe in 10-15 years voters will see how incredibly difficult 300 wins will be to get (lets not forget many of these pitchers have made 100 million or more after 10-15 years in the league, alot of them just want to go home and get off the grind like the Rocket), and guys who are close but not necessarily dominant will get in--only time will tell.
Jay

bri2327

if he gets to 300 then sure he will make it, but I dont see any chance in this lifetime of him getting to 300.

tkd7

I don't believe Mussina will make 300 wins.

DirtyHarry

Agree - he won't make it to 300. Hope he does, but he is not strong enough to go into the mid-late innings to make this happen by his own virtues, like the greats. Five and he is done..at best. I like him and wish him the best.

GlynRParson

If he gets to 275 he will get in.

Axtell

275 wins, with no 20 win seasons, no cy youngs?

I don't see it happening unless somehow, someway he gets to 300 wins.

ctsoxfan

His stats are a bit better than I would have thought, but he isn't a HOF pitcher based on the numbers. His career ERA is 3.63, he has had several seasons with an ERA over 4, and the last few seasons he has allowed more hits than IP. Not to mention never winning 20 games or a single Cy Young.

softparade

I don't think Moose is HOF material. He is a very good pitcher blessed with health through most of his career. A solid solid pitcher but falls short of HOF status.

DeutscherGeist

73 wins to go.....that is a long road to 300


He looks like he has a shot at 20 wins this season. He got off to a good start and his ball is popping even though he relies mostly on finesse. However, anytime a finesse pitcher starts getting a lot of strikeouts, you know he is right on and the mechanics are sound.

I know he has no CY Young awards, but he has gotten very close multiple times.

If he gets 300 wins, no one will argue his HOF credentials, but could he make it without the magic number? He is not as good as Johnson, Maddux or Clemens, but is he necessarily in that borderline group of Cone, Gooden, Brown, Wells, Hershiser....

I think Pedro will get the nod before Mussina, but let us just see how the Moose does this year. He may climb up the Bill James HOF Monitor.

GlynRParson

NOT DURABLE??

10 of his 14 seasons as a full time big leaguer he has gone over 200 innings including 9 straight seasons. the 4 years he didn't hit 200 he pitched 167+,176+,164+, and 179+ thoses are alot of innings for a modern era pitcher.

DeutscherGeist

The main reason why Mussina has an outside shot is that he is on a good offensive team that tries to win every game. The run support can inflate his win totals some. His ERA is higher than a Greg Maddux mainly because he pitches in the American League. He has a good closer to help him win games too.

This could be a big year for him, so it will be exciting to see what will happen. There is no doubt he is durable though.

WinPitcher

I agree, except for the past 2 seasons he was very durable and they are saying his arm/elbow probs are behind him. This is a make or break year for him. What would be funny is if he in fact did reach 300 w/o any 20 win seasons. Sorta would be like (Yaz) Who I think was the first 3000 hit guy not to bat 300 lifetime. Stats can be weired.

Steve

DirtyHarry

I wish Moose well. He does have above average durability for a front line, first class starter. He is not prone to extended injury. He is not the ace of your staff. By the numbers...162 games, starting every 5 for 6 innings equals 195 innings. He may get there, but not likely in today's age of the reliever. He is not dominant, just holds the line. He will have a solid, but not HOF career. Too many others have similar stats that are not highly acknowledged.

RickyHendersonSD

The Yankees can't develop even 20% of their rosters. They overpay players to come play for them (often continuing to pay a large portion of their salaries after they trade them), and make up for their mistakes by paying again for some new players.

Their "fans" think that only their team counts, and that all other players on other teams are not worthy; until their respective GM overpays to acquire some of those players; and then they can't stop telling everyone in the world how good they are now that they play for their team.

They think all that's important in the world is their baseball team, and that people through out the world hang on every morsel of tidbits about their team. Like a snotty little kid saying "look at me, look at me, my bicycle is the shiniest"; while they don’t bother to look at anyone else’s bicycle.

They jam up internet sport sites, and ESPN makes them out to be so important because the dummies that follow them buy more sports merchandise then the other markets.

I hate the Yankees. With that said I hope Mussina gets to 300+ wins and that Jeter bats .400 this year. I wanna see Axtell do a hissy fit on this board.

DirtyHarry

Rickey - c'mon man...that sounds like the ramble that would be suitable to your ID's namesake. Not high IQ. No need to spin this to Axtell. Mussina's prime and bulk of statistics was as the ace with the Oriole's. He could have/should have stayed there. He went to the Yanks pure and simple for the money.....and to be a #2 or #3 man on the staff.

ctsoxfan

<< <i>I think Pedro will get the nod before Mussina >>



Well, of course! At times, Pedro has been the very best pitcher in baseball, and he has had seasons where he has dominated. When has Mussina ever been anywhere near that? I'll answer for you - in his dreams.



<< <i>I know he has no CY Young awards, but he has gotten very close multiple times. >>



Oh, well okay then. We should put guys who come close to winning awards in the HOF now.



<< <i>The main reason why Mussina has an outside shot is that he is on a good offensive team that tries to win every game. >>



That is great, because of course the Yankees are the only team that tries to win every game. The other teams just try and win once in a while, thereby keeping their pitchers out of the HOF.

Axtell

Rickey-

uhm...are you ok? Mussina won't get to 300 wins, and Jeter won't bat .400. And if either of those things did happen by some miracle, I can guarantee you I wouldn't have a 'hissy fit'. I think a hissy fit would describe your rant.

bri2327

<< <i>The Yankees can't develop even 20% of their rosters. They overpay players to come play for them (often continuing to pay a large portion of their salaries after they trade them), and make up for their mistakes by paying again for some new players.

Their "fans" think that only their team counts, and that all other players on other teams are not worthy; until their respective GM overpays to acquire some of those players; and then they can't stop telling everyone in the world how good they are now that they play for their team.

They think all that's important in the world is their baseball team, and that people through out the world hang on every morsel of tidbits about their team. Like a snotty little kid saying "look at me, look at me, my bicycle is the shiniest"; while they don’t bother to look at anyone else’s bicycle.

They jam up internet sport sites, and ESPN makes them out to be so important because the dummies that follow them buy more sports merchandise then the other markets.

I hate the Yankees. With that said I hope Mussina gets to 300+ wins and that Jeter bats .400 this year. I wanna see Axtell do a hissy fit on this board. >>




What a joke. Firstly, NON Yankee fans spend far more time talking about the Yankees than do their fans. Every time I come on this board or any other there are several posts crammed with non fans talking about them. Did it ever occur to you Rickey that you might be a bit obsessed with them ? If you hate the team so much then why rant ? Just dont talk about them period.

I have never heard any Yankee fan claim that only their team counts, so that was just a foolish statement. The problem may not be Yankee fans talking about their team, but the large portion of non Yankee fans having nothing better to do than talk about them too. Do ya think for a second that maybe thats why you hear so much about them ? Maybe they jam up the sites as you claim because ignorant little boys like you have nothing better to do than spew hatred for them rather than starting an intelligent post regarding a team YOU ARE a fan of.


That aside, Pedro would of course get the nod over Mussina. He was the single most dominant pitcher in baseball for a few years, and had maybe the best season ever recorded by a pitcher. Mussina is not even in the same league as Pedro talent wise.....never was even close.

DeutscherGeist

72 wins to go now. What an April for Mussina!!!! Excellent ERA, throws the ball well (top 4 in SO--not bad for a finesse pitcher), 4 wins, staying healthy.... so far so good. If he maintains this in May, then perhaps he will be selected an ALL-STAR.