The future of grading cards, values, etc......
thedpro
Posts: 170
I just had a conversation with someone about the future of grading cards. It is their opinion that somewhere down the line, the demand for grading of cards will fade and eventually dissapear and eventually the lack of interest in the hobby.
They are saying "why should I send my cards into be graded just so it has an artifical premium to sell the cards at. I attempted to rebutt this arguement with reasons why grading is important (extreme analyzation of condition, quality, and in some cases authenticity).
A point that they made is; why should a PSA 9 or 10 demand such a premium over a 7 or 8, when to the naked eye, there is little difference in condition? My answer was kinda weak; the graders may have seen something we missed.
My question to the board; how can people justify spending 2 or 3x as much for a grade higher on a slab then for a lower one? For instance, if you take a PSA 8 and 9 out of the slabs, would you still pay the prices that the grades would demand OR would you offer a discount since it has not had the opinion of a 3rd party grader (and for the sake of this arguement we will assume that the graders are PSA or similar calibur).
So in the respect of paying for premiums, we are essentially paying for opinions of the grade of cards. At the end of the day, will this last or will this eventually fall?
They are saying "why should I send my cards into be graded just so it has an artifical premium to sell the cards at. I attempted to rebutt this arguement with reasons why grading is important (extreme analyzation of condition, quality, and in some cases authenticity).
A point that they made is; why should a PSA 9 or 10 demand such a premium over a 7 or 8, when to the naked eye, there is little difference in condition? My answer was kinda weak; the graders may have seen something we missed.
My question to the board; how can people justify spending 2 or 3x as much for a grade higher on a slab then for a lower one? For instance, if you take a PSA 8 and 9 out of the slabs, would you still pay the prices that the grades would demand OR would you offer a discount since it has not had the opinion of a 3rd party grader (and for the sake of this arguement we will assume that the graders are PSA or similar calibur).
So in the respect of paying for premiums, we are essentially paying for opinions of the grade of cards. At the end of the day, will this last or will this eventually fall?
0
Comments
As a general rule, I don't pay any more for graded cards as I would be willing to pay if I found the card ungraded. Unfortunately, it leaves me out in the cold on alot of key cards I need. I'll probably never own alot of the cards I need to complete some of my sets, only because most of my partial sets were put together at a time when you could still find nice cards at nice prices. Today, I'd have to settle for lesser grade cards than the cards in the rest of my sets, because I still refuse to pay high premiums.
Instead, I'm just a very patient person and prefer to wait and see if an "opportunity" comes along where I can score some nice cards at nice prices.
Cataloging all those pesky, unlisted 1963 Topps football color variations Updated 2/13/05
Collecting Tony Perez PSA and Rookie Baseball PSA
Stingray
1. Makes internet purchases a lot safer. I have a much better idea of what I'm getting when I see the grade. While scans aren't great, they do show centering and that can serve as a proxy for other differences between cards in the same grade. (A PSA 5 with great centering probably has weaker corners or focus than a PSA 5 with poor centering.)
2. Authenticity - to make sure the cards aren't altered. This is certainly more important for high grades than for the mid grades I'm looking at. (Less likely to trim a card to go from a PSA 4 to a PSA 6.)
3. Liquidity - I can get most of my money out of my cards in less than 10 days if I need to. Don't undersestimate this point.
4. PSA Registry - I'm not looking to be #1 on the Willie Mays basic list (in fact, I'm second LAST) but the Registry is a lot of fun. For me, it's a way to show my cards to the world. I've only got three right now, but I've got nice scans and hope to add more soon. Whoever thought up the idea for the registry should get a HUGE bonus from his/her boss. Brilliant move.
AJW's Willie Mays Collection
Perhaps the strongest reason why third party grading won't ever go away is this: who's gonna crack slabs once the card is graded? Even if you don't really like graded cards, it's highly unlikely that you'll crack your 1964 Mantle PSA 8.
<< <i>I just had a conversation with someone about the future of grading cards. It is their opinion that somewhere down the line, the demand for grading of cards will fade and eventually dissapear and eventually the lack of interest in the hobby >>
In 1991, Mr Mint believed that professional grading with the assignment of numberical grades was a bad idea and would be a detriment to the hobby and the business.
People have been professing the demise of grading companies since Superlative Baseball Card Certification and Acu-Card introduced these ideas in the late 80s.
I don't have the answer but I have a key word: TRUST.
If for any reason the public loses trust in the grading card industry - it will fall like a house of cards IMO.
The "Conspiracy Theories" abound - "PSA is loosening its standards - why else are there so many more 10s out there", "Beckett grades sheet cut cards", "trimmed cards are getting through",...."Grading companies are manipulating the market by allowing more 10s so people will submit more cards"....
These are just some of the things I hear....if these words start to spread throughout the countryside...then yes...the Trust will be compromised and grading will go the way of the Beany Baby and Pogs.
Just some thoughts
mike
I for one do not long for the days when odds were about even that I would get a doctored or overgraded card for my money.
Stingray
<< <i>If the Internet dies and we only get our cards out of packs and from the card shop down the street, professional grading might go away. Until then, grading is essential to buying cards long-distance.
I for one do not long for the days when odds were about even that I would get a doctored or overgraded card for my money. >>
JR
Totally agree! I remember sweating out a delivery of cards - hoping that I would agree with their grading.
Looking for coloring, touchups, trimming etc.
But this is the "value" side of grading. And the internet definitely thrives on grading.
The "Trust" side - the image of the grading companies - is another issue - people are concerned about the future of the grading companies and the value of their cards.
mike
It assures the card is legit, unaltered, and a consistent basis of what a grade is. NRMT in a PSA holder means NRMT. How many auctions have you seen advertised as NRMT where it's anywhere but?
Collectors and investors alike want graded cards - the fact that PSA is doing more business now and continues to grow exponetially.
<< <i>Good question. I don't see graded cards coming to an end. I think that for older cards pre-war through the 50s, graded cards will always be they way. It is more of an authentication issue than a graded one I think with cards of those ages. I think that grading for modern could easily disapear. I see no need for grading anything post 1980 (no offense to anyone collecting PSA 1980 or later), just think there is enough stuff out there that it does not need to be graded. Plus the registery also keeps things interesting. Just my two cents worth.
Stingray >>
I agree with this and I would amend it as follows: no need for grading anything post 1980, no need for grading anything post 1972 for under PSA 9, no need for grading anything post 1963 for under PSA 8. As we see the population continue to increase, the years/conditions might actually become more exclusive.
Also, I believe that there will always be more ungraded vintage cards than graded - solely based on the cost of grading not being worth it. For non-star cards, I have been buying graded cards for only a little more than I would ungraded, just because of trust and easier to resell.
Poolman
Gee, i wonder what kind of grades i would get if submitted under DSL or 4SC? Hmmmm What was that word again? Trust?
<< <i> Why does it cost $5 for a 69 commom to be graded and $12 for a star? To me that is my main problem with grading companies
Poolman >>
Perhaps the grader might spend a little more time in evaluation of a 69 NolanRyan, Mickey Mantle, or Reggire Jackson, than he would for a 69 Bob Barton or Dave May, and rightfully so. It is human nature to be more interested in high-profile superstars rather than the mere journeymen types. Possibly two people finalize the grade for a common, while it would be probable that one more person is involved to check the superstars.
.
Besides the proper additional time and effort likely spent on stars' grade evaluation, there is also a liability issue. The declared value of a common is usually 20 dollars ( an 8 in 1969 per SMR ) , while the stars may be upwards of 500 dollars, therefore a bit more care in the handling, recording, and actual encapsulation is probably required, lose or damage a common costs one thing, but lose or damage a superstar, the cost is much more.
Grading is still a relativly new concept to the hobby, and not without flaws for sure. The storage safety, authenticity, and 3rd party evaluation are a service most have come to accept. Certainly the cheaper the card, the more printed the card, the less one might need the expert opinion. No one knows the future with total accuracy, but with typical peaks and valleys, graded cards seem here to stay.
<< <i>Interesting post. Don't we have some history to look at with our coin and stamp collecting friends. The need to have a third party source opine on the condition of the item seems to continue to be imbedded in their hobby. >>
I can't speak for the coin collecting hobby, but I can for stamps since I've been involved in them as long as I have with cards (35 yrs). Third party grading for stamps, such as PSE, has basically been rejected by the stamp collecting hobby. There are just too many variables to take into consideration when looking at stamps, as opposed to cards or coins. What there is are third party "authenticators", or experts, in various fields who will render an opinion of authenticty, and usually note any alterations. But as far as grading goes, with numbers and all, it just isn't something that will probably ever happen, at least to the extent of cards. "Grading" is still done by both the buyer and seller.
One major difference between cards and stamps is the enormous amount of reference literature available to just about any collector, to aide in becoming your own expert. This I haven't seen as of yet in cards. Part of the stamp collecting hobby is the actual learning process of all of this, not relying on someone else to do all the footwork. That's part of the enjoyment of the hobby. I've been trying to find ways to apply that type of collecting to cards, but the hobby hasn't seemed to mature enough yet. Stamp collecting has been around for 150 years, so methods have developed for quite a while.
Most of the experts who authenticate stamps will not even bother examining stamps unless they have a minimum value of $x.xx. In my own case, I dealt with one particular expert who only offered photo certificates of authenticity (standard) for stamps with values of at least $450, and letters of "opinion" (not quite as trusted) for stamps of lesser value. Prices were determined as a percentage of the actual value (the higher the value, the more it cost to authenticate), and no experts waste their valuable time authenticating "common" stamps.
I have always hoped that card graders would move more in these directions. Authenticating and full written disclosure, on the slab, of any "faults", should be something they should consider. If a card is graded at a PSA 6, I want to know why.
And lastly, I would reiterate that the card hobby would not even flinch if grading took a nose dive, just the card GRADING portion of the hobby. I know this may be a hard pill to swollow for some, but I am willing to bet that graded card collectors make up a small (maybe even very small) percentage of sports card collectors. If the graded card industry plummeted, only the people involved would suffer. The cards would still be there for others to collect. I've only met 1 other person locally who collects graded cards.
And of course, if the graded card market did fall, and prices fell as well, then the number of fraudsters would also diminish, since it would no longer be as inviting, nor profitable.
I've looked at the PSE forum here and it's basically a ghost town. I remember a few years ago, an stamp "grading" person came to the ebay stamp chat board trying to sell the idea of third part grading and was unceremoniously laughed off the board. Go to any big stamp show and you will have to look VERY hard to find even 1 graded stamp being offered. I've actually never seen even 1 myself.
Cataloging all those pesky, unlisted 1963 Topps football color variations Updated 2/13/05
<< <i>Gee, i wonder what kind of grades i would get if submitted under DSL or 4SC? Hmmmm What was that word again? Trust? >>
For someone who apparently hates PSA so much, you sure do spend a lot of time here. You seem to relish any opportunity to attempt to infuse any discussion with 'DSL and 4SC gets preferred grades! It's not fair! waaah'
Major cash infusions from new investors never came to the coin biz until third-party grading made it “safe” to buy. As a coin dealer, my job was always to buy super cheap and sell super high. Under-grading and over-grading are essential to these goals. PCGS and NGC – and consumer access to CDN – changed everything. Those changes were not – in the short run - good for most dealers, but they rejuvenated the hobby/business by leveling the playing field.
As a stamp dealer, I also know that there are two-sets of grading principles; one to be used when buying, the other when selling. The largest and most corrupt stamp dealers are the loudest voices against PSE and/or ANY other kind of third-party grading. (I heard the same noises from coin dealers in 1980.) PSE or some other outfit will eventually breakthrough and save the stamp hobby, too. Many of the stamps you see at the auction sites are just stickers; even the cheap stuff is being counterfeited IN HUGE quantities.
(C13-15, C18 should never be purchased without expertization of some sort. The same is true for the covers bearing those stamps. Also, most of the 1930s European airmails are equally suspect. They are JUST brand new STICKERS… NOT STAMPS).
Soon, it will be easy to make a near perfect sports card that can only be detected by the most sophisticated means. Once this happens at the level it has within the stamp market, ONLY suckers will buy non-graded cards. Modern cards must continue to be graded to preserve their integrity decades from now. Vintage cards must continue to be graded so that investors will have confidence in the authentic nature of those old cards today and tomorrow.
Currency, while not likely to ever be super easy to counterfeit, still requires third-party grading JUST to get the grade right/fair. If you doubt this, go on ebay and buy a note that the biggest dealer says is UNC and send it to a grading service; chances are BIG that it will come back MUCH less than UNC.
Even the peasants that buy their coins from the home-shopping television hucksters ARE SOLD on the idea that coins must be graded to be worthwhile. You can like it or not, but people are buying collectibles with the hope that they will make money – or at least not lose money – when they dump the stuff. The “storehouse of value” theory is REALLY the ONLY driving force behind new money coming into any of the “products.”
(Do not get me wrong: I like owning and looking at all the little pieces of art, but I do not expect to lose money on that enjoyment.)
Card grading is here to stay and will ONLY grow as time passes and crime thrives.
Cher
While say a higher percentage of the Mickey Mantle cards out there have perhaps been graded, most of the Fred Baczewski and Bill Tuttle cards remain ungraded.
What percantage? 1-2 % if that much...................but of course we will never know...
1955 Bowman Raw complete with 90% Ex-NR or better
Now seeking 1949 Eureka Sportstamps...NM condition
Working on '78 Autographed set now 99.9% complete -
Working on '89 Topps autoed set now complete
<< <i>
As a stamp dealer, I also know that there are two-sets of grading principles; one to be used when buying, the other when selling. The largest and most corrupt stamp dealers are the loudest voices against PSE and/or ANY other kind of third-party grading. (I heard the same noises from coin dealers in 1980.) PSE or some other outfit will eventually breakthrough and save the stamp hobby, too. Many of the stamps you see at the auction sites are just stickers; even the cheap stuff is being counterfeited IN HUGE quantities.
(C13-15, C18 should never be purchased without expertization of some sort. The same is true for the covers bearing those stamps. Also, most of the 1930s European airmails are equally suspect. They are JUST brand new STICKERS… NOT STAMPS). >>
Sorry, but for stamps it'll never happen. Stamp collecting is an international hobby, and trying to convince foreign stamp markets to agree with 1 "grading" standard would be absolutely futile. Not to mention that a stamp cannot be viewed the same way as a card. You just can't apply the same standards, it won't work. To begin with, you have unused stamps and used stamps. How can you apply the same standards to both? Printing defects on stamps, many times, carry a premium, on cards they are considered very, very bad.
Besides these points, it would be absolutely impossible to put together a large enough expertizing committee to be able to handle everything, there are just too many niche areas to work with.
And why can't you buy a set of Zeps without being expertized? It's not like they are RARE or anything. Go to any stamp show and you can find dozens of sets and singles available. Any real collector who is seroius about buying high dollar items probably already knows more about detecting altered and fake stamps, than alot of expertizers.
The ONLY way it will work is if they focus strictly on MINT stamps of a single area, probably U.S. only. Anyting else has too many variables to deal with. Of course, since that particular area of collecting is so small, in comparison to the hobby in general, I can't see a "grading" company making ends meet at all.
Not to mention that there is also a theory that encapsulating stamps, and maybe even cards, will actually be HARMFUL to the stamps over time. I'm not a scientist so I can't explain it, but I have seen some very compelling discussions concerning this.
Now, getting past all that, how on earth would a collector exhibit slabbed stamps?
Nope, it'll never go over well at all.
One thing that would happen if grading was forced upon the stamp world though..............the amount of counterfeiting and fraud would multiply exponentially, just as it has in the card hobby.
Cataloging all those pesky, unlisted 1963 Topps football color variations Updated 2/13/05
mean encapsulation. The letter and the scan are acceptable means of id. Once one gets used to
the stamps slabbed, the little fellows really are very cool to own. I have no idea if the slab
might hurt the stamps over a very long period of time, but I do KNOW that mint stamps will
degrade - mostly on their reverse - stored/displayed for decades in the conventional manner.
High value US stamps and high dollar European stamps are the primary target of fake-makers, today.
Those are the stamps that I think should only be purchased IF expertized.
My recall is that there were only about 75K each of C13, 14, 15 printed. Most were postally used
because their face-value made them too expensive for ordinary folks to "save." I do not know
how many are still around in mint, but I do KNOW that MANY of the ones at shows and on ebay
are "suspect" as to authenticity. Why take a chance? Why not just let a real expert take a look
and write an opinion?
The current crop of stamp fakes are virtually perfect and the average skill-level collector will not
come close to being able to protect herself/himself. As for stamp errors, they are noted by the
expertizer/grader on the paperwork supplied.
I see no rampant fraud in the graded card bix, today. I see MASSIVE fraud in the stamp biz, today.
Misrepresenting the "retail value" of a graded card is not the problem, currently. The problem is
that many ungraded cards CANNOT be graded because they have been altered or if they
can be graded they will grade VERY LOW; grading eliminates that challenge.
Twenty years from now - maybe less time - the true rarity of vintage sportscards will become
more evident. It will then be clear that there was NO BIG STASH of pre-1960 cards being
hoarded. If there is demand at that time, the prices will skyrocket on the stuff that has been
graded and preserved.
Bow, I am not sure how grading stamps will lead to more counterfeiting...??
Cher
<< <i>I agree, we are not used to seeing slabbed stamps. Getting stamps expertized does NOT HAVE to
mean encapsulation. The letter and the scan are acceptable means of id. Once one gets used to
the stamps slabbed, the little fellows really are very cool to own. I have no idea if the slab
might hurt the stamps over a very long period of time, but I do KNOW that mint stamps will
degrade - mostly on their reverse - stored/displayed for decades in the conventional manner. >>
One of the reasons they may degrade the way they are currently stored, is not because of the storage devices (like mounts), but because of the gum on the back. Many 19th c stamps have had their gum intentionally soaked off because it was proven to be destructive to the actual paper. It's probably too soon to be able to tell if 20th century gum will destroy modern day stamps. What I heard, had something to do with depriving the stamp of breathing room. This is why albums are recommended to be standing up rather than stored flat, to let the stamps breathe.
<< <i>High value US stamps and high dollar European stamps are the primary target of fake-makers, today.
Those are the stamps that I think should only be purchased IF expertized.
My recall is that there were only about 75K each of C13, 14, 15 printed. Most were postally used
because their face-value made them too expensive for ordinary folks to "save." I do not know
how many are still around in mint, but I do KNOW that MANY of the ones at shows and on ebay
are "suspect" as to authenticity. Why take a chance? Why not just let a real expert take a look
and write an opinion? >>
Who are the "real experts"? Stamp "experts" are simply collectors with lot's of experience and knowledge. Anyone can be an expert, all you have to do is convince your peers you know what you are talking about. I can talk circles around most "experts" in the area I collect, but I don't consider myself to be an "expert", just pretty darn knowledgable.
Actually, most of the Zeps WERE NOT postally used, because there was no real need for them. There were no standard airmail rates for them to be used on, just the "Graf Zeppelin" transatlantic thing, which didn't last. They were withdrawn from sale within 2 months of issue. Most used copies were used on things such as first flight covers, and other non-postal souveniers. There are lot's and lot's of unused ones around, even up to full sheets. But you are right, they were too expensive for average people to save, but not for dealers and speculators to hoard.
As for the authenticty, I would say most of the ones I have seen are genuine, but possibly altered, such as reperfs, regummed, repaired tears etc... That is where an expertizer might come in handy. Actual counterfeits are usually very obvious, or at least they should be to most. They are usually just inkjet printed, which is almost laughable, even in a scan.
<< <i>The current crop of stamp fakes are virtually perfect and the average skill-level collector will not
come close to being able to protect herself/himself. As for stamp errors, they are noted by the
expertizer/grader on the paperwork supplied. >>
When you speak of "fakes" are you refering to genuine stamps that have been altered in some way in order to be passed off as something different? That's generally what philatelists refer to as fakes, which is totally different than forgeries. Yes, "fakes" (reperfs, regummed, and repaired) can be a pain to try and identify, even to the point that many "expertizing committees get it wrong as well. Average skilled stamp collectors are not the ones who are buying the expensive rarities anyway, but that is why stamp collectors are urged to become as knowledgable about what they are collecting as possible. Without knowledgable collectors, there will be NO experts for others to rely on.
<< <i>I see no rampant fraud in the graded card bix, today. I see MASSIVE fraud in the stamp biz, today.
Misrepresenting the "retail value" of a graded card is not the problem, currently. The problem is
that many ungraded cards CANNOT be graded because they have been altered or if they
can be graded they will grade VERY LOW; grading eliminates that challenge. >>
You're kidding right? When I'm talking about fraud, I'm not talking about a simple difference of opinion regarding value and condition, I'm talking reprints being sold as genuine, outright counterfeits being sold as genuine, alters, repairs, and general doctored cards. 20 years ago, there wasn't nearly the problem there is today.
Forgeries in the stamp world have been around as long as stamps themselves, many of which are actually MORE VALUABLE than the genuine stamp they represent.
<< <i>Twenty years from now - maybe less time - the true rarity of vintage sportscards will become
more evident. It will then be clear that there was NO BIG STASH of pre-1960 cards being
hoarded. If there is demand at that time, the prices will skyrocket on the stuff that has been
graded and preserved. >>
That may be true. 20 years from now all the hoards of ungraded vintage material may have surfaced. But today, I'm willing to bet there are still large quantities out there, maybe not in wherehouses in sealed cases, but in private collections by collectors who bought the stuff years before grading came to be.....like me.
<< <i>Bow, I am not sure how grading stamps will lead to more counterfeiting...?? >>
Again, you're kidding right? You can't deny that third party grading has added value to even the cheapest common cards, can you? Of course not. Think about it. If a wouldbe scamster starts noticing that a common card that use to sell for $5 is now being sold for $100 (and not just from a rising card market), just because it's now in a PSA 10 holder, that scamster is going to go out and try to pass on some piece of junk as a possible PSA 10. We see it all the time. He isn't going to waste time trying to scam someone for a $5 card. The higher pricves peolpe pay for graded cards, the more inviting it is for scammers to operate. Unfortunately, professional grading is the cure, for the problem it perpetuates. Sort of like anti-virus software developers. One of thesde days it will get so out of hand that it will just come crashing down from it's own weight. Everythiing BIG does. Even Wal-Mart will crash one of these days, and so too will ebay.
Cher >>
Text
...and to keep this post graded card related.
I think third party "authenticating" would be a great idea for cards, with the addition of noting all damage and bad things, right on the holder. BUT, it still should be up to the buyer and seller to detemine the grade and price. It would just be sad to think about all the collectors who would be walking around blind, if indeed someone like PSA went under, who rely so heavily on someone elses opinion, then suddenly have that taken away and not know how to deal with collecting.
And thrid party "authenticating" would also be good, in fact that's exactly how it has always been and i see no need to change. Once they start attaching numbered grades to stamps, then the investor-minded collectors will start to ooze in again and muck it up, yet again, for the base collectors.
Card collecting is still fairly young and doesn't have all these histories and skeletons in the closet, but rest assured, they will acquire them in time.
Cataloging all those pesky, unlisted 1963 Topps football color variations Updated 2/13/05
Encapsulation provided authentication and collector confidence. It increased mail order sales.
The internet and particularly eBay have been responsible in large part for the booming growth the last five years especially at the high end of the marketplace.
As one might suspect, there are quite a few Third Party Grading companies for coins. Unfortunately they do not agree on a grading standard and all are far from equal. Anyone can start a coin grading/encapsulation service. User groups and chat rooms eventually drive the worse ones out of business. The major services have thus far been scandal free.
One detriment as a result of encapsulation, is that many people collect by the grade on the plastic slab rather than by the quality of the coin. Since grading is subjective, buying and resubmitting a coin in hopes of a higher grade has spawned a huge cottage industry.
The coin market still has its share of less than ethical sellers but encapsulation has significantly reduced there number at the high end. They now prey mostly at the low end of the marketplace and a great many can be found on eBay selling to the unwary.
On balance, encapsulation has been a very positive force for the large majority of coin collectors. It has however driven some collectors away due to the great increase in coin values.
My personal rule (and again, this is just for 1960s and 1970s) is that I'd like to get a PSA 8 for 150% of the Beckett price for NM.
Perhaps a PSA 9 is much harder to earn for earlier cards (more scruntiy is given, etc.)
Welcome! You're kind of buried here in this thread!
On the stamp issue:
Could someone explain why collecting stamps is so much more complicated than baseball cards?
There are un-cancelled - I want to say in 5th grade we called them mint - and cancelled stamps.
After that, anything you say about stamps, applies to cards - condition, registration, centering, surface, edges, variations, printing errors etc.
Now, if they have better reference literature - that would be a departure - I would pay hundreds and hundreds to have a "true" encyclopedia of sports cards - to include the history of the different companies, printing histories, estimated print runs etc.
mike
<< <i>I've only been collecting graded cards for a couple of years, but the one thing I have concluded is that PSA 9s are not worth it for the 1960s and 1970s cards. When you consider the price difference and the overlap in grading (some 8s better than some 9s, etc.), it's not a good enough bet. I have bought and resold eight different 9s because I preferred the PSA 8 I had in my collection. Many times this was due to focus/registration issues.
My personal rule (and again, this is just for 1960s and 1970s) is that I'd like to get a PSA 8 for 150% of the Beckett price for NM.
Perhaps a PSA 9 is much harder to earn for earlier cards (more scruntiy is given, etc.) >>
yet again another comment proving to me that many collectors care more about value than about the card. Sad, really sad. This is a friggen hobby man, I am blown
away by the percentage of "collectors" that are caught up in the money game. Extremely sad. You would think these guys would be funneling money into a real life risk, and not a F---ing hobby.
Dan
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
That is what we use to call baseball cards that were in perfect condition, mint. There was no Gem Mint, or Pristine. If it had perfect centering and corners to the naked eye it was mint. Thinking about it now, how can anything really be better than mint. I always wondered why when they started the grading scale that a PSA 10 was not called mint, then 9 NM-MT and so on?
Stingray
when you say "its not worth it for 60's and 70's cards" means you don't care about nothing but $$$$$ If 60's and 70's cards were as scarce as pre war you would be all over them. For ONE reason ... MONEY. Do tell me more, I have been reading the same old song for a year on these boards.
It is one thing to be a collector who makes his purchases within the realm of what the market abroad dictates, what pisses me off is the collector who dismisses a wide range of great cards simply because there is no shot to cash in big down the road. SAD
Dan
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I collect 1970s and like to get the commons ungraded and key cards in PSA 8s. I also collect Gibson, Brock, Carlton, Morgan, and Dick Allen cards. I have mostly 8s. I've tried 9s but don't think they are worth it (not because they won't sell for more later, but because they don't give me any more satisfaction than 8s do). This thread was about the market and whether cards would retain value. Looking into the future I am wondering if others feel the same way I do about 9s and whether that might affect their value. I think this is the right thread to discuss this issue (since "future" "grading" and "values" are all in the title).
No more from me on this thread. Thanks.
<< <i>tcb
Welcome! You're kind of buried here in this thread!
On the stamp issue:
Could someone explain why collecting stamps is so much more complicated than baseball cards?
There are un-cancelled - I want to say in 5th grade we called them mint - and cancelled stamps.
After that, anything you say about stamps, applies to cards - condition, registration, centering, surface, edges, variations, printing errors etc.
Now, if they have better reference literature - that would be a departure - I would pay hundreds and hundreds to have a "true" encyclopedia of sports cards - to include the history of the different companies, printing histories, estimated print runs etc.
mike >>
Well, let's see if I can touch the tip of the iceberg.
1)Stamps are an international hobby, sports cards as we know it are chiefly North American, with the possible exception of U.K.. Grading and condition standards for stamps differ from country to country. U.S. collectors put an emphasis on centering and original gum, European collectors don't really care about either. Anything that would be graded here in the U.S. would mean absolutely nothing everywhere else in the world.
2)Yes, there are used (cancelled) and unused (mint) stamps, each has many, many variables.
Unused - Can have original gum, or be regummed, they can also have no gum as issued, there are literally hundreds of color and shade variants to identify on some stamps, perforation varieties, previously hinged and previously hinged with smoothed over gum. There are plating varieties to identify. Some experts in some fields spend their entire lives just trying to identify which position in a sheet of stamps a particular stamp comes from. There are pairs, blocks, sheets, coils, and the list goes on and on and on. Each one of these is basically a specialty area for experts. There are no experts in stamp collecting that can do it all.
Used stamps - Along with just about everything above, used stamps pose unique problems, most of which have to do with the cancellation, alot of times which may be worth more than the stamp itself.
Along with all these, there are countless fakes, forgeries, and counterfeits to identify. Alot of these forgeries were made more than 100 years ago and can still be found in collections and dealers stocks, because there are not enough experts to identify them. Not to mention that some of the forgeries from days past have become collectible and are worth more than the original stamps themselves. cards too have counterfeits, but a stamp collector can not only identify a counterfeit, but in most cases can also name the individual who made it and when.
Then you get into covers (envelopes with stamps on them). Just about all the conditions above apply to these, plus a whole host of other, historical, variables.
To put it in perspective, a stamp collector can spend an entire lifetime of collecting one individual stamp, in all it's forms, variations and aspects and never really become an authority in that one stamp. Compare it to, say, a card collector specializing in collecting one particular card. Let's just say a card collector wants to be the worlds leading authority on 1980 Topps Rob Picciolo cards, just how long would that take? A week maybe?
Yes, there are similarities between stamps and cards. They are both printed pieces of paper or cardboard, and many cases I'd bet the printing methods are the same. The major difference is that card collectors don't want to know anything about cards other than what they see.
Cards are pretty one-dimensional, about the only thing that changes is the condition.
I too wish some of these sports card "authorities" would start putting whatever knowledge they possess about cards in book form, for reference. Even websites would be a help. Instead all we usually get are books about "how much is it worth?", blah blah blah.
There large libraries all over the world, that house nothng but reference books for stamps. But, stamp collecting has been around for 150 years, so they have a pretty good headstart on cards.
The big problem is, as long as there are third party grading companies, collectors in general will not be the least bit interested in doing any of the legwork. Not when they can just pay someone else to do it for them. Now, if the grading companies wanted to be more pro-active in the hobby, they would be the best places to publish in depth reference works on cards, card production, grading and counterfeit detecting. But if they did that, they would basically be cutting their own throats by giving away the knowledge that they are charging for, so I don't see that ever happening. That's why it's so important for collectors to take more control over the hobby and do it themselves.
My little website below, for the unlisted 1963 Topps FB color variations, is my little contribution. I just wish I had more knowledge so that I could really get in depth with it.
Cataloging all those pesky, unlisted 1963 Topps football color variations Updated 2/13/05
<< <i>Stone,
That is what we use to call baseball cards that were in perfect condition, mint. There was no Gem Mint, or Pristine. If it had perfect centering and corners to the naked eye it was mint. Thinking about it now, how can anything really be better than mint. I always wondered why when they started the grading scale that a PSA 10 was not called mint, then 9 NM-MT and so on?
Stingray >>
Well, if Nigel (from Spinal Tap) can have an amp that goes to 11, why can't we have cards that are better than mint? In fact, whay don't they just have a whole grading scale for MINT cards. You could have: MINT, GEM MINT, SUPER GEM MINT, GALACTIC MINT! You could have cards that are SO MINT, that they can't even be touched or breathed on by humans and have to be kept in Xenon gas enclosures on a distant planet.....just to be safe. One of the GALACTICALY MINT cards could be so perfect, that if it ever was touched by human hands, it could start the next ice age.
Cataloging all those pesky, unlisted 1963 Topps football color variations Updated 2/13/05
When I view my "Superb Gem" zeps, I feel like I am looking at something much
more special than my best 1960s era PSA cards; but I still like looking at my cards, too.
Every collector of every collectible wants to "own the best." That is the goal - or the
fantasy - that makes the hobbies fun and keeps people interested in making new
and better buys. GRADING is an integral part of determining what is "best" in all
of the hobbies.
I aslo like the idea that my very best stuff can be turned into piles of cash in most
of the civilized countries of the world. (By the way: Cards and stamps are VERY
big in Japan. Bargains exist on US stamps when purchased from many foreign countries, but
card values are more universal.)
Folks can have disdain for the idea that nice collectibles have ECONOMIC value, but that
circumstance will never change. Museum quality art is no less appealing just because it
is "priceless." ("Priceless" means that it is "worth a fortune.")
Cher
I tend to disagree, maybe I am alone in my opinion, but I do not feel that I need the "best of the best". I will be happy having a set that is comprised of PSA 8s and 9s, it does not have to be just 9s and 10. I guess it is a matter of economics on what I can afford to purchase. I can not afford to purchase 1975 PSA 10s at $175+ for commons, so I will be happy with an 8 or 9. My goal is not to have the best, but just being able to complete it. Even if I could afford it, I am not sure that I would want to have the best. Maybe I am just cheap.
Stingray
TRUST is what its all about and it seems that with added competition, any competition, PSA has been forced to alter its "model". Anyone familiar with a public company knows that the shareholder and the street must be satisfied before, with, and after the customer. Baseball card grading is the cash cow for the company and position #1 must be maintained in the marketplace.
I posted a thread asking why PSA grades are significantly higher by population percentages..especially 7 & 8...than the competitors. Rhetorically, I would ask if they are softening standards to maintain business levels since the 9/10 pops are identical. This preserves the VALUE where true value really matters. 7's and 8's are for collectors....9's and 10's are for investors.
Why introduce a 8Q and 9Q and then say that they are valued two grades lower in the registry set formula???? PERCEPTION!!!!!!...but as we know the reality is painful when one tries to sell. Everyone loves an 8 or 9....no one loves a 6 or 7.
Also, I'm sure that power and leverage DOES count as far as DSL etc, etc are concerned. If not, the laws of business and economics would become fortune cookie fodder. Just imagine my 10 card submission being separated from my name just before DSL's 650 card submission. Wonder, wonder, which came from the POWER base.
We'll have to live with all of it....but keep our eyes open
Ultimately, the decision is ours.
I have only graded 50 cards from a collection of over 7,000 vintage...I know what I have, and unless I want to sell ...that is all that matters. Kind of like the stamp guys...do you really need a third party to check fuzz on corners??? or measure pixels for centering???
Enough blather...another beer please!
Everyone should collect up to the "feel good" level that they are comfortable with.
There is nothing wrong with wanting the best, and there is nothing wrong with
building collections that are - by today's standards - not quite the best. (In years
to come, the 7s and 8s will gain in economic value, and in the meantime they can
be enjoyed for their hobby value.)
Cher
I will pay $100.00 cash to the first person who can prove to me by just
"a preponderance of the evidence," that the number of cards a party
submits "encourages" PSA to "intentionally" overgrade in favor of that
party.
The ONLY thing that PSA has to sell is "confidence." It would be anti-corporate
(CLCT) and anti-shareholder for PSA to risk that commodity by considering
anything other than the submission itself in its grading practices.
HINT: Simple math formulas will not meet the standards for "proof" of fraud
in this challenge. A "good fairh" actor in the form of a whistleblower will be
required to convince me.
Cher