A little more in depth on Palmeiro's numbers...
Skinpinch
Posts: 1,531
in Sports Talk
We already know that Palmeiro's best finishes in MLB as a hitter were 7th, 7th,7th, and 17th. We already know that his raw numbers are inflated because the era most of his career resides in just happens to be the EASIEST time in baseball history to be a hitter, AND one of the easiest times to dominate the league average.
I mentioned Palmeiro's hitting with men on. It should be obvious to people that if you are getting a higher percentage of your hits with men on that you are creating more runs than if you were getting more hits with nobody on. If not obvious, then please skip this post.
SOme guys have added more value to their hitting than the OPS+ states, because they have gotten a higher percentage of their hits with men on, whether it is because of some randomness or some good situational hitting, it doesn't bely the fact that it created more runs for the team, and thus more wins. Guys like Murray, Frank Thomas, and Hernandez are good examples of players with higher values than their OPS+ states.
How about Palmeiro?
......................AVG....OB%.....SLG%
Nobody ON....286.....355.......524
MEN ON.........292......389.......507
Scoring Pos...280......401.......474
How about Frank Thomas since he is from the same era and we don't have to do the adjustments like vs. a Murray or Brett?
......................AVG......OB%.......SLG%
Nobody ON....298.......407........559
MEN ON.........318.......449.........580
Scoring POS....319.....459..........578
As you can see, Thomas is a guy that got a higher percentage of his hits with men on, as opposed to nobody on, so his hits carried more weight. THE STARTLING THING IS HOW LOW PALMEIRO'S SLUGING PERCENTAGE IS WITH MEN ON!! His slugging percentage is actually 21 points lower with men on as opposed to nobody. Being that the MEN ON category consists of the same amount of at bats as the nobody on, this is a very significant detriment for Palmeiro.
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT SO DO NOT SKIP THIS PART!!!!!!!
WHen you look at the entire league averages, the average hitter will increase all three of their percentages in the MEN ON CATEGORY! For instance, the league average slugging percentage is usally about 15 points higher with men on. That is mainly because Sac Flies are not counted as outs with men on. So, in order for Palmeiro to be merely average with men on, then his slugging percentage would have to be about .540! But his is at .507!! So Palmeiro is WAAAY below average in the important category of SLUG% with men, compared to nobody on! He is not getting full value in his hits as Frank Thomas is, or any other player who slugs better with men on! Palmeiro is actually POOR in that category!
The same goes for batting average...you will usually see an uptick of about 12 points on the league batting average with men on as opposed to nobody on. Again, this is mainly accounted for because sac flies are NOT counted as outs in the men on category(and they are outs of course). So when you see that Palmeiro is batting .292 with men on and .286 with nobody on, again he is below average, because in order for him to be average in that category he would have to be hitting about .298 with men on to measure up to the league average hitter. An example is seeing Frank Thomas at .318 with men on and .298 with men on. He is above average.
Don't get too excited about Palmeiro's OB% increasing with men on because again, the league sees even a larger increase in that category too! Everyone has a higher OB% with men on, and Palmeiro is lacking as to how much higher. Again, see how Thomas really outdistances him there.
RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION!! Typically the league average stats with Runners in scoring position are the same as with nobody on(except for OB% as that sees a big increase). If you look at Palmeiro in those categories, in order for him to be average hitter with Runners in Scoring position he should have the same percentages as with nobody on....but he is lacking, LACKING BIG TIME in Slugging Percentage!
What does this mean?? Well, when you compare Palmeiro to a player and are using OPS+, realize that Palmeiro is BELOW AVERAGE in terms of getting value from his hits. So if Frank Thomas already has a wide gap in OPS+ vs. Palmeiro, and you know that Thomas was GOOD with men on, then you know that the gap is much, much, wider than the OPS+ says. Thomas would be far more responsible for creating runs AND wins for his teams.
McGwire was also above average with men on. Bagwell about average. How about Murray? He is one of the best, probably THE BEST when you realize that he did it over a lot of at bats, which makes the sample size very strong. Murray increased his average by 25 points with men on(compared to nobody on), AND he increase his SLUGGING% by 53, thats right FIFTY THREE points with men on as opposed to nobody on!! Palmeiro's DECREASED by 17 points!! That is a HUGE difference.
So, with all the lack of dominance, inflated numbers etc......this is just another thing that puts a few smaller holes into Palmeiro's value as a hitter, and ultimately as a player.
By the way, to the guy who said it isn't Palmeiro's fault he wasn't always on good teams, maybe he shouldn't have been the 28th ranked hitter soo often, and maybe if he had a few more homers with men on base his teams would have won more games! You think? Then maybe he would have been higher in the MVP voting. Don't you think if he was the second best hitter in the league AND hit well with men on that his team would have won more games?? That is why it is difficult to put a guy into the Hall of Fame that PALES in comparison to most of the slugging Hall of Famers who were the best AND hit with men on!! THey made a big difference for their teams! Yeah, so they may have stopped playing sooner, but hat just means the team could put their salary towards another star instead of an old man who is average and hanging on(making good money too)
One can decide on their own what they like for the Hall of Fame, but you shouldn't deny facts to forumalte your opinion.
I mentioned Palmeiro's hitting with men on. It should be obvious to people that if you are getting a higher percentage of your hits with men on that you are creating more runs than if you were getting more hits with nobody on. If not obvious, then please skip this post.
SOme guys have added more value to their hitting than the OPS+ states, because they have gotten a higher percentage of their hits with men on, whether it is because of some randomness or some good situational hitting, it doesn't bely the fact that it created more runs for the team, and thus more wins. Guys like Murray, Frank Thomas, and Hernandez are good examples of players with higher values than their OPS+ states.
How about Palmeiro?
......................AVG....OB%.....SLG%
Nobody ON....286.....355.......524
MEN ON.........292......389.......507
Scoring Pos...280......401.......474
How about Frank Thomas since he is from the same era and we don't have to do the adjustments like vs. a Murray or Brett?
......................AVG......OB%.......SLG%
Nobody ON....298.......407........559
MEN ON.........318.......449.........580
Scoring POS....319.....459..........578
As you can see, Thomas is a guy that got a higher percentage of his hits with men on, as opposed to nobody on, so his hits carried more weight. THE STARTLING THING IS HOW LOW PALMEIRO'S SLUGING PERCENTAGE IS WITH MEN ON!! His slugging percentage is actually 21 points lower with men on as opposed to nobody. Being that the MEN ON category consists of the same amount of at bats as the nobody on, this is a very significant detriment for Palmeiro.
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT SO DO NOT SKIP THIS PART!!!!!!!
WHen you look at the entire league averages, the average hitter will increase all three of their percentages in the MEN ON CATEGORY! For instance, the league average slugging percentage is usally about 15 points higher with men on. That is mainly because Sac Flies are not counted as outs with men on. So, in order for Palmeiro to be merely average with men on, then his slugging percentage would have to be about .540! But his is at .507!! So Palmeiro is WAAAY below average in the important category of SLUG% with men, compared to nobody on! He is not getting full value in his hits as Frank Thomas is, or any other player who slugs better with men on! Palmeiro is actually POOR in that category!
The same goes for batting average...you will usually see an uptick of about 12 points on the league batting average with men on as opposed to nobody on. Again, this is mainly accounted for because sac flies are NOT counted as outs in the men on category(and they are outs of course). So when you see that Palmeiro is batting .292 with men on and .286 with nobody on, again he is below average, because in order for him to be average in that category he would have to be hitting about .298 with men on to measure up to the league average hitter. An example is seeing Frank Thomas at .318 with men on and .298 with men on. He is above average.
Don't get too excited about Palmeiro's OB% increasing with men on because again, the league sees even a larger increase in that category too! Everyone has a higher OB% with men on, and Palmeiro is lacking as to how much higher. Again, see how Thomas really outdistances him there.
RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION!! Typically the league average stats with Runners in scoring position are the same as with nobody on(except for OB% as that sees a big increase). If you look at Palmeiro in those categories, in order for him to be average hitter with Runners in Scoring position he should have the same percentages as with nobody on....but he is lacking, LACKING BIG TIME in Slugging Percentage!
What does this mean?? Well, when you compare Palmeiro to a player and are using OPS+, realize that Palmeiro is BELOW AVERAGE in terms of getting value from his hits. So if Frank Thomas already has a wide gap in OPS+ vs. Palmeiro, and you know that Thomas was GOOD with men on, then you know that the gap is much, much, wider than the OPS+ says. Thomas would be far more responsible for creating runs AND wins for his teams.
McGwire was also above average with men on. Bagwell about average. How about Murray? He is one of the best, probably THE BEST when you realize that he did it over a lot of at bats, which makes the sample size very strong. Murray increased his average by 25 points with men on(compared to nobody on), AND he increase his SLUGGING% by 53, thats right FIFTY THREE points with men on as opposed to nobody on!! Palmeiro's DECREASED by 17 points!! That is a HUGE difference.
So, with all the lack of dominance, inflated numbers etc......this is just another thing that puts a few smaller holes into Palmeiro's value as a hitter, and ultimately as a player.
By the way, to the guy who said it isn't Palmeiro's fault he wasn't always on good teams, maybe he shouldn't have been the 28th ranked hitter soo often, and maybe if he had a few more homers with men on base his teams would have won more games! You think? Then maybe he would have been higher in the MVP voting. Don't you think if he was the second best hitter in the league AND hit well with men on that his team would have won more games?? That is why it is difficult to put a guy into the Hall of Fame that PALES in comparison to most of the slugging Hall of Famers who were the best AND hit with men on!! THey made a big difference for their teams! Yeah, so they may have stopped playing sooner, but hat just means the team could put their salary towards another star instead of an old man who is average and hanging on(making good money too)
One can decide on their own what they like for the Hall of Fame, but you shouldn't deny facts to forumalte your opinion.
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Comments
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
On the other hand, I honestly can't associate Raffy with much more than Viagra. My ambivalance about his candidacy isn't so much about contextualized stats but about the lack of defining moments. I know, I know: The Hall is also a place for those who sustain a high level of play throughout their careers, but Raffy just isn't a real memorable player in my book.
<< <i>The Hall is also a place for those who sustain a high level of play throughout their careers, but Raffy just isn't a real memorable player in my book. >>
And those Raffy backers will argue 'well he was always on bad teams...he didn't have a chance to be highlighted'.
Hall of Fame players excel even in poor situations (see Arod winning an MVP (should have been 2) while with the texas rangers).
Raffy was always a mediocre player. Never stood out, just played forever. Guess that's who we want in the hall?
<< <i>Skin - nice post. I never felt that statistical compilers belonged in the Hall - the Hall should be for players who dominated for a number of years in their era, not just hanging around on mediocre teams filling their stat books. Jim Rice was one of the most feared hitters in the game for almost 10 seasons, and he's not in - but someone like Palmeiro will be? >>
Rice should absolutely be in...but with the offensive explosion of the past 15 years, outstanding players like Rice are left out because they didn't hit their home runs in this juiced ball (and juiced body) era.
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee