Ken Griffey, Jr...Returning to old form?
JackWESQ
Posts: 2,133 ✭✭✭
Dear Group,
All this HOF talk led me to check out how Griffey is doing this year.
He's not putting up MVP numbers, but certainly respectable numbers
at 16 HRs, 54 RBIs and a 861 OPS. The projects out to 31 HRs and
105 RBIs with a nice .285 BA. What do you guys think?
/s/ JackWESQ
All this HOF talk led me to check out how Griffey is doing this year.
He's not putting up MVP numbers, but certainly respectable numbers
at 16 HRs, 54 RBIs and a 861 OPS. The projects out to 31 HRs and
105 RBIs with a nice .285 BA. What do you guys think?
/s/ JackWESQ
0
Comments
Griffey will be a Hall of Famer period.
He's 17th on the ALL TIME HOME RUN LIST, and he's only 36, so he only has to stay moderately healthy and he'll get to 600.
All the talk about 500 being the magic number, the hall won't keep anyone out who has 600, that's for sure.
That's also why Palmeiro is a lock. He'll end up with 600 too.
<< <i>All the talk about 500 being the magic number, the hall won't keep anyone out who has 600, that's for sure. >>
No doubt, Griffey is a HOFer. So is Palmeiro. But, soon Sammy Sosa will have 600 HR's as well. Is he a Hall candidate? Something about him makes it hard for me to view him that way.
<< <i>
<< <i>All the talk about 500 being the magic number, the hall won't keep anyone out who has 600, that's for sure. >>
No doubt, Griffey is a HOFer. So is Palmeiro. But, soon Sammy Sosa will have 600 HR's as well. Is he a Hall candidate? Something about him makes it hard for me to view him that way. >>
you kidding?? only player to hit 60 or more homers 3 times i think...oh yeah...he is a HOFer
loth
I think Palmeiro is a fluff Hall Of Famer... I wish the 500 homers "rule" did not exist for players such as Palmeiro, but, there are plenty of less deserving players already in there than him, so...
And Sosa is a lock. All great players have a decline if they stick around long enough... he needs to hang it up. I wouldn't be suprised if Baltimore cut him and ate his contract, perhaps someone would trade them something for him and/or pick up a piece of his contract.
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
<< <i>there are plenty of less deserving players already in there than him, so... >>
Like who?
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
<< <i>Isn't he? I was under the impression that he was. If he wasn't that's my bad. >>
Larsen's not in the HOF.
mike
<< <i>you kidding?? only player to hit 60 or more homers 3 times i think...oh yeah...he is a HOFer >>
I know what his numbers are, and I'm sure you're right about him being in, but it bothers me a bit that he will go in. Of course, a lot of the next generation to go in will have the same cloud swirling over them too, so I guess it's not fair to single out Sosa.
what about the 3000 hits he about to get. maybe 600 home runs, 1816 rbi's. i dont see why this is an argument. raffy is a HOF and im not even close to being a o's or rangers fan.
so as to not hijack this thread I will answer the question brought forth, YES Griffey is a sure bet HOF'r
Steve D
Griffey without a doubt was the best player in all of baseball for 10 years. There is certainly no comparison between that hack Raffy and the Kid.
I hope Griffey can shake the injury bug and is able to regain some of his old form.
<< <i>Raffy is going to make the hall, since so many people are unwilling to look beyond the numbers and say 'oh wow he's got 500 home runs and 3000 hits' without seeing he never truly was a superstar.
Griffey without a doubt was the best player in all of baseball for 10 years. There is certainly no comparison between that hack Raffy and the Kid.
I hope Griffey can shake the injury bug and is able to regain some of his old form. >>
Raffy was REALLY GOOD for his whole career, Griffey was REALLY GREAT the first half of his career and mediocre the second half, so what is the difference??? It all evens out!!!
he seems to fit a few criterias
500 3000 steady production ove r a 20 yr career etc.
he is not the first player of any era to take advantage of small parks, weak pitching and all the other things that make a career a career.
baseball consstantly eveolves yet it never really changes.
steve d
I personally think if you are a DH and or most of your stats come from playing DH you don't belong in the HOF period. I have no problem with superstar players who have put up HOF type numbers trying to hang on a few more years by playing the DH, but this is getting out of control.
A few players that come to mind....
Harold Baines 2866 total hits, 1688 as a DH
Paul Molitor 3319 total hits, 1457 as a DH
Frank Thomas 2113 total hits, 762 as a DH... 436 Total HR's, 136 as a DH
To me playing the field is part of the game and if you can't field your position you don't have the right to bat. I also believe that injuries/ageing are part of the game, so if your body/age doesn't allow you to play the field thats just tough luck, get out of the game.
I'm also againest 1 dimensional players getting into the hall, such as....
Mark McGwire 1626 total hits, 583 of them are HR's, .263 BA....think about it, 16yrs as a pro and 1626 total hits, thats 102 hits per year avg. are those HOF numbers's? not in a million years and if you don't believe his was using steriods to hit those HR's you are out of your mind.
back to the question at hand....Griffey Jr has put up HOF number dispite being injured the last 3/4 years. What if he still in the AL and was playing DH the last 3/4 years, what would his numbers look like? 600/650 HR's is not out of the question. The point I'm trying to make is if you are a TRUE hof player you shouldn't need to play DH to survive in MLB. He could have retired 3 years ago and still made the HOF. Could you say the same about Paul Molitor if he wasn't allowed to DH. I don't think so!
Fred Mcgriff has 2490 hits, 493 HRs, .284 BA in a 19yr playing career
Willie Stargell has 2232 hits, 475 HR's, .282 BA in 21yr playing career
Mcgriff has better number all across the boards over Stargell. Willie is in the HOF, Fred will have to pay to get into Cooperstown. WHY? Fred played as a DH, Willie didn't, plus he has a WS ring.
These are the reason I no longer think you can look at 3000 hits or 500 HR's as the ticket to the hall.
FWIW!
<< <i>Raffy is going to make the hall, since so many people are unwilling to look beyond the numbers and say 'oh wow he's got 500 home runs and 3000 hits' without seeing he never truly was a superstar. >>
And this is Palmiero's fault because...
If he'd played in NY he would have been a superstar for sure. Hell, the Rangers have never HAD a superstar. And the Orioles have had precisely five-- if you count Palmer. It's not his fault he's played for low profile teams. No, he never had the allure of Griffey, but allure shouldn't be part of the equation. If it was guys like Molitor, etc. wouldn't be worthy either.
You're asking him to be held accountable for things he couldn't control. The guy has had an outstanding career-- one of the finest of all time. How can you begrudge him that?
<< <i>
Raffy was REALLY GOOD for his whole career, Griffey was REALLY GREAT the first half of his career and mediocre the second half, so what is the difference??? It all evens out!!! >>
Raffy can't even be Griffey's bat boy...Griffey wasn't one faceted like Raffy (HRs...not even dominant at hitting HRs), Griffey dominated every single aspect of the game.
Whether one feels his current longevity is enough, then that is opinion and one is entitled to that, but it doesn't change the facts of what his numbers truly mean, and how he annually ranked among other first basemen and other hitters. If one feels his current longevity overcomes those very apparant shortcomings of lacking being the best at his position or as a hitter, then fine. However, it just doesn't quite match up with the typical Hall of Famer(past 30 years) though, and that is very tough to dispute. The only Hall of Fame 1B type that has similar shortcomings of being overshadowed by many from their own eras are Tony Perez, and Cepeda, and they had to wait 14 and 16 years respectively.
Only a few people have the vision to look past the sexy 3,000 hits and 500 Home Runs and not get too caught up in it as if it were the same value as the other three members of that club. It is painfully obvious that hitting in the last ten odd years of baseball have been the easiest time to ever be a hitter, thus all these outlandish numbers being thrown up compared to just even 15-20 years ago(part of which Palmeiro was, and still had the similar rankings as the live ball time, but very mortal looking numbers. Everyone's numbers increased).
The only thing that is going to change the consensus on Palmeiro is what the career leaderboards look like 8-12 years from now. Then it will be done already as opposed to predicting or seeing how it will look compared to the normalcy it now has. If it is indeed very cluttered as it is heading, then that should shed more light on things. You going to see guys like Arod, Manny, Vlad, etc....just surge up that Home RUn board. If those guys falter and get hurt, or retire early leaving Palmeiro among a select few, then he has no problem.
My stance was that he was borderline currently, and I myself agree that if he does play another few years of 25 home runs per year, and is an average to above average league hitter in SLG and OB%, then the longevity value will then make him a shoe-in. If he plays another few years and is really bad, then he may play himself out.
Griffey is a better player, because of them being similar offensively, Griffey's value as a centerfielder outweights Palmeiro's value as a 1B. It is more helpful to a team to have a centerfielder do the hitting that Griffey did and dominate every other centerfielder in the league, then it is for Palmeiro's hitting and have 7 or 8 guys better than him at his position.
Here is where his rank in the more important categories for a hitter. The list includes players with at least 3,000 plate appearances who are active.
OB% Palmeiro currently ranks among the active hitters at 34th.
SLG% Palmeiro currently ranks among the active hitters at 26th.
OPS+ Palmeiro currently ranks among the active hitters at 23rd (one spot ahead of Sosa).
So all of Palmeiro's Home Run exploits only gains him a 26th ranking in SlG%. The key number is his OPS+ ranking at 23rd.
This doesn't count any young contemporaries of his like Pujols who will vault past him when they get enough at bats, or opponents like McGwire who are secured past him and are retired. Most of the guys ahead of him are mostly seasoned vets and their lead looks pretty safe , even when they hit their lean 'old' years. Palmeiro will hit a couple of those years before he retires too, so he will also drop. That list consits of guys who played their bulk of their career in the 90's to now. How far down will he fall on that list??
In the end, how many contemporaries will end up as being a better hitter in the truly signifcant categories, only counting guys from this era....1993 to present. Not counting guys who may have touched a few years from 1993-'95 as the majority of their career was in a different hiting era.
I'm not sure how his stature of this type compares to other HOFers of different era. I would have to lay down some paramenters in order to have some validity, and research it. That would be a rather lenghty one.
But this certainly puts more light to his stature than just saying 500 Home Runs, 3,000 hits. It takes the unfair advantage of more at bats out of the equation.
This would be a tough study to properly set the parameters, it would probably easier to do it on a case by case basis. It would also probably be best to wait until Palmeiro finishes too, as there is still some unknown left. He will drop lower if he continues to play, just how much is the question. Almost all old guys drop in percentages in their last couple of years.
just my quick opinion.
GG
Griffey will never hit 40HR again. I don't care how young he is. too lazy, crap conditioning in his prime and he is paying for it until the end now.
<< <i>Raffy will get in, thomas will get in, griffey jr will get in, mcgwire won't get in. I agree with the DH to a point, but I don't think it should be exclusionary for the HOF. My respect for Frank Thomas is growing every day. it kills me that sosa will end up getting in when i'm all but convinced he has been pumping it in for years. His best friend gets busted for roids, he is busted with a corked bat, his defense is crap, and without the roids the past couple years he is playing at his true level. He was once well liked, but his numbers are too strong for denial now.
just my quick opinion.
GG
Griffey will never hit 40HR again. I don't care how young he is. too lazy, crap conditioning in his prime and he is paying for it until the end now. >>
McGwire will be a first ballot HoF. He (along with Sosa) saved baseball. The writers know that, and even with his abysmal congressional testimony, will get in.
How do you say that Sosa's been pumping, but Raffy hasn't?
And Griffey was too lazy and crap conditioning? Are you serious? The only reason he has ever gotten hurt is because of going all out non stop. He doesn't have a throttle, when he's playing, he's always at full speed.
You are an amazing statistical junkie!! The bottom line is this... Would you rather have a player post top 20 numbers for 20 years, or would you rather have a player be top 3 for 5 years, then top 10 for 5 more? I personally think that ANY player that can put up very consistant well above average numbers for 20 years and that knocks off many hallowed milestones deserves to be recognized as a star in the history of baseball.
Raffy deserves to be recognized. As a person he seems to be outstanding and while he was initially overshadowed by the insane hype machines surrounding the likes of Will Clark, Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Bo Jackson, Bobby Bonilla, etc... this guy has more than withstood the test of time and deserves the hall call.
GG
I kow your a mariners fan, but I remember reading YEARS ago that griffey wouldn't last becasue he wouldn't warm up or cool down properly and instead played video games before and after games. I believe it came from a mariners trainer and they (accurately) predicted injuries would get him prematurely. Does anyone else recall anything along these lines?
Griffey is in the long slow burn of his career. I don't think his drive is there anymore. don't get me wrong, he is an amazing player that doesn't look like a football player which is great, but I can't help to think many of his injuries are the direct result of his own doing.
GG
I'm not saying you have to like him. But he's been a rock steady performer, and has played at a fairly elite level for some time now. If Phil Neikro and Don Sutton deserve to get in then Raffy has to get the nod as well.
He may have been the media darling riding around in that corvette breaking maris' record, but now he simply makes me sick. I think many people feel the same.
Bonds is making me sick as well. I personally hope he never plays again. Maybe i'm bitter, but I hate the way he thinks of himself. I'm just tired of the whole schtick.
GG
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
When a guy like McGwire retires early, his spot isn't left open for six more years. The Cardinals take McGwire's salary and spend it on another player. You can fill the rest of McGwire's Plate Appearances with a typical replacement level player 1B and add those at bats until they have the same amount of Plate Appearances as Palmeiro. That will give a better idea in black and white of what the value is of players who were better, but just didn't have the good fortune of having the same amount of At Bats as Palmeiro.
The Hall is filled with plenty of guys with Palmeiro's consistency/longevity, but with far better dominance among their peers, and that is where I am coming from.
The HOF(Post War) doesn't have a whole lot of shooting stars who played for ten years and then thanks a lot....your Koufax's. Those guys are rare.
What is a little more common is guys being very good for a long time AND NOT in the Hall of Fame. The thing that separates Palmeiro from those guy is that he has those 'milestones', but of course many of those guys would have those same milestones if allowed to play in an era where it was the easisest time ever to be a hitter. How different would it have been for a guy like Dave Parker to be able to play in this era and also get the 3,000 hits? Palmeiro is closer to these guys, ala Baines, then he is to the established HOFer.
It will be a moot point if Raffy keeps adding decent years, as even if replacement level value is added towards shorter AB guys, it still wouldn't equal Raffy.
To get a good idea of where Players rank, Bill James's WinSHares(most current rankings), does a good job(even if it does have a few flaws), and does the BEST job of cross-era analysis than any of the other stat methods.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=3897
His run from 1993 to 2003 is unreal. He hit .300 while averaging 40HR/year, with 110 RBIs a year for 10 consecutive years. 10 straight years. That is a remarkable feat. I honestly just don't get the arguement against him getting in. Then again, not a single player has been unanimously voted into the HOF, so I guess you can't please them all.
GG
Palmeiro played longer than McGwire and was more healthy on a yearly basis so he could rack up the 4,000 more at bats. But McGwire was soo far superior than Palmeiro and he missed many games. The A's and Cardinals had a player to put in for McGwire when he was hurt or retired. Some of those players actually played above average in his stead. The average PLAYER(all positions) averages 1 Home Run every 30 at bats in this era. The average replacement level player is typically 90% of that, so he averages one every 33 at bats. So McGwire and his average replacement level player would have 709 Home Runs in the same span as Palmeiro. Forget that McGwire's replacements actually were Giambi, WIll Clark, and Pujols. So, McGwire's team's are better off having an injured McGwire or a McGwire that retires prematurely, than a Palmeiro who stays for a longer time at a lesser level.
This is where I said that these next few years could be telling. If Palmeiro plays another three years with good ratios(above average), then he will close the gap to be even with the superior hitters with less at bats, because he is adding value to a team vias longevity, as opposed to doing a job that a typical replacement player can(and probably for much cheaper).
I will be the first to admit that using just home runs is a poor way of measuring this, but it simplifies the point, and reaches the same conclusion with a more advanced method like WinShares.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ken_griffey.shtml
Look at griffeys averages from 1993-2003 compared to palmeiro. Even when you look at his averages from 1993 to 2000 it still doesn't average out THAT much better than raffys 10 year averages.
Add to this the fact that Griffey hasn't hit more than 22 HR for 5 YEARS now. Then realize he hasn't hit .300 for 8 YEARS now. 8 years guys. People are holding onto Griffey like its their baby blankie. Griffey is sounding more like a media darling that started fading at age 30, then the next great.
If I were managing a baseball team, I would take Raffy's career over Griffey anyday. this goes to show how popularity often distorts the reality of value.
skinpinch- I understand your rationale of raffy having too many ABs but come on, isn't that kinda fishing for a reason to exclude? Why do players get penalized for being healthy?
GG
If somebody were interested in a good evalution tool of players, then Winshares by Bill James is a good one to have. It misses some of the men on hitting value, but it tackles cross era comparisons better than any of the other stat formulas, and it does have a touch of how the typical fan looks at players, so it won't be like going to a math class or anything.
I'm going to take a break now from posting, this is getting time consuming. If anyone is stuck on their view thats fine, but I would encourage everyone to have an open mind and think outside of the box to get a true idea of this stuff. It is interesting, to me at least.
Try to look past the raw numbers and let the stuff I talked about sink in. Then apply it to other players to, not just Raffy.
Have a goo day gentlemen.
By the way Goudey, I've been looking for a '38 Feller for the longest time. Any extras you are willing to part with??
I'm not penalizing for more at bats. As I said, the more at bats over a replacement level player does equal more value, no doubt about that. That is what is putting Raffy up there, and that is why the next few years could make a difference, because if he is below or at replacement level, then he really isn't doing much with his value, even though his hit totals and Home Run totals keep rising.
Of course they won't be going anywhere. rough ones aren't that hard to come by, but I waited nearly 2 years to get my 5 and 7 for my set. Very tough card to find in a decent grade. Everybody wants one I guess.
Good luck!
GG
I do understand your point on going deeper into stats, but we all know the HOF voters probably go about 10% as far as your personal analysis.
Nothing is worse in my mind than a player that doesn't play.
GG
<< <i>Did I mention Griffey has barely averaged 250 AB / Year for the last 5 years?
Nothing is worse in my mind than a player that doesn't play.
GG >>
And it's his fault that he's gotten injured right? You continue to rant that he did it to himself, but I've never heard a single report or 'expert' state that his injury proneness was due to him not taking care of himself when he was younger. And being a Mariners fan, don't you think I would have been clued in to something like that?
Are you sure you aren't Ron Dibble in real life? Someone who has a vengence for Griffey jr?
That's just a little condescending. You're not talking about quantum physics here, you're talking about how to evaluate a baseball player's career. And while I don't know GG personally I'm betting he understands what you're saying-- he just doesn't think it's all that relevant when it comes to picking players for the Hall. If it was then players like Neikro, Sutton and Murray wouldn't get in either.
And yes, I did love dibble!! he was a mad man!! If it isn't griffeys fault then Who's fault is it? It really doesn't matter how or why he became injured, the bottom line is he is 36 going on 46 and is buying time to pad numbers. He's on the slow burn down, and I never really liked him anyway. So yea i'm unfairly biased I admit it.
GG
One can formulate their own opinion of this if he is good enough for the Hall. But the evidence shown isn't opinion, it is just showing where he ranks among his peers, and in relation to where past HOFers have ranked among their peers.
Goudey, I hope you didn't take that as condescending at all. I'm not the Geico commercial guy. I'm glad I checked here one last time before lunch. I thought I was going to take a break, but I got bored.
Boopotts, Murray was much more dominanting than Palmeiro, AND he had the longevity. He was the best 1B for a number of years, while Palmeiro was close once, and usually 7th or 8th. Murray also had a stretch where he was THE BEST hitter in baseball, Palmeiro never remotely came close to anything like that. It is just his era inflating his numbers to look better than guys like Murray.
as for griffeys conditioning... all one has to do is search google : griffey injury conditioning. You will get previous teammates statements that although he is a natural he is lazy and doesn't practice or warm up. sure it came from dibble, but I believe him. Also many other sources state the same. sure nothing proven in the court of law, but how else can you explain 5 years of injuries at age 30?! Its not from the turf or hitting a wall.
what does anyone else think on the injury topic? Ax thinks its an act of god, I think its laziness. anyone else?
GG
Whether it is from lack of condition, too much muscle conditioning(see McGwire), or just plain bad/good luck, is nearly impossible to tell. If you fill in the rest of the at bats with replacement level numbers, then you can judge which player has more value then.
Going to at bat every day is definately a plus for Palmeiro, or Murray, or Winfield, or Ripken. By playing everyday it also means that they don't sit because of a tough matchup that may hurt their percentages a little, kind of like when some star lefties always take their days off vs. Randy Johnson so that the bench guy can go 0 for 4 instead. That star gets to add a couple of points to his average when he does that 8 or 9 times a season. Though I remember Palmeiro earlier in his career not playing in some of those matchups and getting pinch hit for actually. Though as he went on he always played regardless.
I don't know why people get so bunged up about the Hall of Fame. Who cares? If you had an excellent career, and served as a worthy ambassador to the game, you should get it. No more hand wringing. Palmiero has had a great career, and he will probably get in-- as he should. No, I'm not saying he was the best who ever played, or that he was a dominating presence on the diamond. Only that his career achievments are formidable.