Which card is poised for the biggest fall?

gosteelers

I apologize if this was covered before, but, what card and/or set (modern or vintage, although I feel it's going to be modern) do you feel is poised for the biggest fall in the next year or two? I know we just had a 'biggest drop' topic, but, I wanted to get everyone's opinion on what you suspect will happen next...

Mark

1420sports

1986 Topps Traded Bonds PSA 10

ndleo

Albert Puljos. In order for him to keep moving up, he will have to become a national star. Being very good isn't enough at his price levels. I don't think Albert has the right stuff to be a national star.

frankhardy

I've never heard of Albert PULHOS. I have heard of Albert PUJOLS though!

I have to disagree. People were saying the same thing two and three years ago. He hasn't slowed down, and neither has his cards.

julen23

Assuming Bonds stays around to break Aaron's HR record in 2007, I can't imagine his card value doing anything but appreciating.

He has been surprisingly unhurt by BALCO stuff. Espn and all talk shows still give him credibility, despite all the darkness surrounding him.

Julen
_________
Collecting:
1980 Topps: Over 4,000 cards from vending and wax boxes awaiting a giant bonfire
1969 Topps Master: # 1 1
1987 Kraft Home Plate Heroes

frankhardy

Whoops! Here I am picking at ndleo about his spelling, and I can't even copy his mistake. He spelled it Puljos. I spelled it Pulhos. ..

Oh, never mind!

ctsoxfan

There is so much Bonds stuff around, that if he doesn't play anymore (or can't break the record), his cards will certainly drop a bit. Just about everyone who plays that game is betting that he breaks the mark, if he doesn't - look out.

Pujols is a great player, but I can see him playing his whole career, and his cards being valued the same as someone like Ryne Sandberg. Strong interest from local area fans, not as strong from the national audience.

athleticsfan

1986 Topps Traded Tiffany Barry Bonds PSA 10

NickM

Ben Roethlisberger rookies.

I'm not saying this as a smack at gosteelers. Roethlisberger cards have a very high price in relation to any other rookies from the same set. Now that his 2nd year cards are coming out (thus satisfying the casual fans who just want one of his cards), as well as a new rookie class (where a lot of collector money will be diverted to these players), anything less than Peyton Manning numbers will probably result in precipitous drops in his card values. Roethlisberger has not shown himself to be that kind of a QB. He's more a Tom Brady type.

Nick

gosteelers

<< <i>Ben Roethlisberger rookies.

I'm not saying this as a smack at gosteelers. Roethlisberger cards have a very high price in relation to any other rookies from the same set. Now that his 2nd year cards are coming out (thus satisfying the casual fans who just want one of his cards), as well as a new rookie class (where a lot of collector money will be diverted to these players), anything less than Peyton Manning numbers will probably result in precipitous drops in his card values. Roethlisberger has not shown himself to be that kind of a QB. He's more a Tom Brady type.

Nick >>



Hey now, watch what you say about Big Ben!! Seriously, though, you're probably right, there's no way to sustain the type of success/hype he enjoyed last year...Although, you compare him to Brady, Brady's SPA isn't doing too badly!!

Mark

dallasactuary

<< <i>Assuming Bonds stays around to break Aaron's HR record in 2007, I can't imagine his card value doing anything but appreciating.

He has been surprisingly unhurt by BALCO stuff. Espn and all talk shows still give him credibility, despite all the darkness surrounding him.
>>



IMO, the only reason his cards got to the levels they did is that everyone ASSUMED he was going to break the record. I don't think his cards have any upside potential whatsoever, only direction to go from where he was is down.

Ditto the BALCO situation; his cards prices got up there when nobody was even thinking about steroids. Now that they are an issue, he can either be hurt a little or a lot, but I don't see any way he can be helped. Add in that he is the most unlikable human being in modern sports history and I predict a long, steady decline.

NickM

dallas - Bonds is more unlikeable than Cecil Collins or Lawrence Phillips?

gosteelers - Brady's card price is based on 3 Super Bowl rings already. SPA is also one of his few rookie cards. Roethlisberger is in everything.

Nick

shagrotn77

<< <i>Albert Puljos. In order for him to keep moving up, he will have to become a national star. Being very good isn't enough at his price levels. I don't think Albert has the right stuff to be a national star. >>



I'm not a Cardinals fan, but even a marginal baseball knows that Albert Pujols has had one of the best starts to a baseball career EVER, in the history of the game, and we're talking about well over a hundred years. He doesn't have to become a national star because he already is one. IMHO he should have won at least two MVP awards already, both of which undeservedly went to Barry U.S. Roids.

ndleo

You can say the same thing about Frank Thomas and his cards aren't worth anything. Albert's cards already book very high and for it to keep going three things will have to happen:

1) Break a significant record.
2) Win multiple championships and be a key player.
3) Become a national star outside of baseball.

#3 is the hardest thing to do. McGwire was able to do it and Bonds to a degree. I don't know if Albert has the intangibles to push him over the top. McGwire was the all-american boy. Bonds was making a run at Aaron. In order to drive his cards higher, you need new money from casual collectors coming in.

gosteelers

<< <i>

<< <i>Albert Puljos. In order for him to keep moving up, he will have to become a national star. Being very good isn't enough at his price levels. I don't think Albert has the right stuff to be a national star. >>



I'm not a Cardinals fan, but even a marginal baseball knows that Albert Pujols has had one of the best starts to a baseball career EVER, in the history of the game, and we're talking about well over a hundred years. He doesn't have to become a national star because he already is one. IMHO he should have won at least two MVP awards already, both of which undeservedly went to Barry U.S. Roids. >>



Unfortunately for Pujols, he probably won't win the MVP award this year, either, as long as Derrek Lee keeps up this pace...

Mark

goudeygold

Every Barry Bonds card across the board. the Gem POP numbers are simply insane. people have been hoarding these up for years now with the HR record per season, and possibly the all time HR title. Now that the all time HR title is now more likely to NOT happen, the flood gates will soon open and the prices will all go DOWN, DOWN, DOWN. the exception MAY be low pop BGS 9.5s or 10s. MAYBE.

a year and a half ago there were dealers at the chicago shows with literally hundreds of PSA 8 87 fleer Bonds cards for $40/each.

If I were holding Bonds cards I would sell ASAP. even if he makes the all time record, people are going to dump when he reaches it, thus still holding prices down or negative.

There are others i'm sure, but Bonds is the most obvious SELL!!!!!

If you think i'm crazy, call some dealers and ask them if they are interested in some Bonds rookies and see what the will give you. IF they don't "have enough" already.

GG

dallasactuary

<< <i>dallas - Bonds is more unlikeable than Cecil Collins or Lawrence Phillips?
>>



Bonds is more unlikeable than paper cuts, irritible bowel, and those nasty burps faintly reminiscent of vomit.... but still, you may be right about Collins and Phillips.

goudeygold

Bonds is a swollen asss zit. and at that you just don't know when its gonna pop...

GG

bengineno9

I hope the comments were directly made to baseball cards only.


Uh what does it take to become a "national star"???
Wearing Yankee pinstripes, endorsements, a long term contract over 200 mill, controversy and scandals on ESPN

1,283,047 AS game votes doesn't make you a national star? I filled out 4 ballots and don't think i forgot about D. Lee.

Numbers comparable to Joe D. and Ted Williams aren't good enough? Well I guess "Pujols" doesn't play in NY or BOS so the answer is NO!

Take a look at the career stats. Imagine 5 more healthy years let alone even 10. C'mon guys!

Whats next, Musial doesn't belong in the HOF?

Lothar52

whats the population of 87 fleer bonds psa 8,9,10 regular and glossy????

loth

TheCARDKid

If Bonds doesn't break the HR record, it'll be like a high flying stock missing earnings by a mile. So much has been already factored in, watch out below (witness the rise and fall of McGwire or Griffey).

The pop report shows 8,300 '87 Topps cards, 20,000 Fleer, 20,000 Donruss, 36,000 '86 TT. There's easily 10-20-30X those numbers still floating around raw (A million '87 Topps cards?). Time to sell Bonds...

sayheykid54

Pujols not a national star? What planet do you live on? He's one of the most popular gifted players in the game. The numbers he posts year after year are absolutely astounding.

goudeygold

I have to agree. I think Pujols is incredible and a national star. Aside from A-Rod, who are the younger stars of today bigger than Pujols?!?!?!

Give Pujols 6 more years at these averages and i'll get on the "all time" wagon. Until then, he is still a bad knee from falling to earth like everyone else.

GG

Daeyel

So, consensus says
Baseball: Bonds
Football: Roethlisberger

But what about basketball?

LeBron James.

Seriously, the guy was in EVERYTHiNG produced. He had stuff invented so they could produce more of him. He has more autos, more limited numbered autos, that anyone else. I dont think he can keep up with it.

And I though Kobe was overhyped coming out of high school?

ctsoxfan

I disagree - LeBron is the real deal. His early stats are nothing short of amazing, and while I thought he might be overhyped at first, I can easily see him reaching Jordan type heights in the hobby over the long term (if he wins a few titles, of course). I think Carmelo Anthony cards are the ones to drop (oops, better sell mine now!) - he isn't the second best player to come out of that draft anymore (Wade is), and he doesn't seem to possess the star power of either one of them.

Cubfan

I dont collect baskeball so Im asking is there anything of LeBron's that is really worth a lot? It would seem as though there is so much out there that there really isnt anything of huge value.

I think by National Star, they meant endorsements and a lot of non-Baseball game face time on the tube. Albert is not a riveting personality or interview yet. Darned good, but still needs about 6 more years to become a great though. I voted for D. Lee for the all-star game, but would not consider it wrong if Albert wins.

Ahmanfan

Anything of lebron's that's worth a lot? If you consider a lot of his auto's booking over 1k, then yes.

Daeyel

Want a Lebron card? My guess iss there are well over 100 different rookies, many with parallels. The number of different Lebron rookie cards could reach 300.

And how many printed total? A million? 5 million?
Basketball collectors (like any other collector) have short memories. Tomorrow is here already, and Bogut, Williams and DePaul cards will be out all too soon.

Many will be selling older cards to pay for newer.
Can the market bear the weight of so much LeBron?

CDsNuts

The same thing will happen with Lebron's RCs that happens with everybody else's who maintains superstar status. There will be a greater separation between his "minor" RCs and his "major" RCs. The SPx's and SPa's will all hold their value if he continues to do well (which he will barring injury) and the Topps and Upper Deeck and Fleer and Finest will go downward as those sets no longer harbor any demand. Make no mistake, Lebron is a superstar. He almost single-handedly took a god awful NBA team to the playoffs with no support and a bad coach when he should still be a sophmore in college. Nobody who came out of high school has even made nearly as big of an impact in their first two years. Not Kobe, not Garnett. Not even Michael when he left college.

As far as cards that should go down, I would say just about every high dollar jersey/bat/seat/glove/ball/pants/shorts/jockstrap/goggles card will not hold its value over the next year. Even the big ones of Ruth, Clemente, etc... People are getting tired of that crap. The stuff I've expected to see go up that never has is the early inserted auto cards that started everything: 92 Fleer Clemens, 92/93 Hoops Stockton, 92 Donruss Ripken, the Upper Deck Reggie, Ryan, Wilt, Marino, etc... That stuff was impossible to pull and is hard to find if you're looking for any particular card. Maybe it never will go up, but I still think those are the coolest auto's.

Lee

rbdjr1

PSA just loves Barry! (I guess so does TOPPS, FLEER and Dunruss!)

Don't you think 'the horse is already out of the barn'?

Barry's first two years:

1986 DONRUSS ROOKIE(S) 9,114 graded PSAs
1986 FLEER UPDATE 15,423 graded PSAs
1986 SPORTFLICS ROOKIES 2,987 graded PSAs
1986 TOPPS TRADED 36,756 graded PSAs
1986 TOPPS TRADED TIFFANY 1,601 graded PSAs
1987 DONRUSS 20,153 graded PSAs
1987 DONRUSS OPENING DAY 1,906 graded PSAs
1987 FLEER 20,745 graded PSAs
1987 FLEER GLOSSY 5,723 graded PSAs
1987 FLEER HOTTEST STARS 738 graded cards
1987 LEAF 846 graded cards
1987 O-PEE-CHEE 83 graded cards (Canadian friends graded 1,078 '87 OPC Patrick Roy RCs LOL!)
1987 TOPPS 8,354 graded cards
1987 TOPPS GLOSSY ALL-STAR Set of 60 17,682 graded PSAs
1987 TOPPS TIFFANY 2,337 graded cards
1987 TOYS R US ROOKIES 1,486 graded cards

Barry, break that record! There's another 50,000 plastic coffins just waiting for a Barry Bonds card!

rd

Boopotts

Very well put, Lee. I agree with everything you say. And, like you, I cannot figure out why those early insert autograph cards haven't hit the moon yet.