odds on getting a brady RC SP authentic-Axtell?!

goudeygold

Can someone give me some insight on the odds of getting the Brady RC out of a 2000 SP authentic box? The box prices don't seem bad at $200, considering a PSA 9 Brady alone will pay for 2 1/2 boxes.

your thoughts or help?

GG

brianwintersfan

A mint PSA Brady books at $1,000.Are you guessing it would sell for about $500?? Otherwise your math is off.
$200 is not a bad price on those.Where did you find them at that price??

SoFLPhillyFan

I believe it is one (#118) in a 150 card base set. Here are some details on the inserts.

24 packs per box, 5 cards per pack

Subset cards:
60 Future Watch (each card numbered to 1,250)

Inserts:
15 SP Supremacy (1:8 packs)
10 SP Authentic (1:11 packs)
10 New Classics (1:11 packs)
7 Rookie Fusion (1:18 packs)
Sign of the Times (1:23 packs)
Sign of the Times - Gold (each card numbered to jersey number)
SP BuyBack autographs (1:71 packs)
Joe Namath Game-Jersey Greats (hand numbered to 175)

Key Rookies:
Brian Urlacher, Chad Pennington, Shaun Alexander, Plaxico Burress, Peter Warrick, Jamal Lewis, Mike Anderson, and TOM BRADY

goudeygold

PSa 9s go for about $500. The boxes are all over ebay for $200 each. search and see. you would think you could get a 9 out of 2 1/2 boxes right? or not...

GG

SoFLPhillyFan

Dave and Adams has them for 225.

goudeygold

So you need to pull the star subset numbered to 1,250 and get Brady. what are the odds on a 1,250 numbered card per pack?

GG

SoFLPhillyFan

Actually I think his card is in the base set, which is 150 cards.
Sorry for the confusion. What I listed is the inserts, not the base set.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I checked the UD website.

gregm13

<< <i>Can someone give me some insight on the odds of getting the Brady RC out of a 2000 SP authentic box? The box prices don't seem bad at $200, considering a PSA 9 Brady alone will pay for 2 1/2 boxes.

your thoughts or help?

GG >>



I think you only get one rookie per box. I bought three boxes about 2 years ago for 80 apiece looking for the Pennington. I pulled cr*p for rookies - however, I did pull several buy back auto's that weren't too bad (Cris Carter, Kerry Collins and Brunell). My guess is that you have a 1 in 60 shot of pulling a Brady (1.7%)..not too good.

Regards,

Greg M.

N162Collector

I remember my local dealer and collector friends pulling an average of 2-3 numbered rookies per SPA box. If you bought the equivalent of 2.5 boxes, you would probably pull an average of 6 rookies - 6 out of 60 in the set, giving you about a ten percent chance of pulling a Brady.

If boxes cost $200, you would be shelling out five grand to be "guaranteed" a Brady (assuming perfect collation - you might pull two, or you might pull zero). I searched completed auctions for SPA Bradys - they sell, on average, for around $750. Would you rather pay $500 for a 10% chance of pulling a Brady, or pay $750 and buy a Brady outright?

lawnmowerman

It is correct that you only get one numbered rc per box. I bought two boxes and got nothing to write home about.

Matt

N162Collector

I might be thinking of SPx, where you got one jersey/auto and a few base rookies per box. Either way, this would put the cash outlay for a "guaranteed" Brady at around $18 THOUSAND dollars. heh.

lawnmowerman

<< <i>I might be thinking of SPx, where you got one jersey/auto and a few base rookies per box. Either way, this would put the cash outlay for a "guaranteed" Brady at around $18 THOUSAND dollars. heh. >>

Yeah I think your right about SPx. That sounds good to me.

Matt

orion9578

Matt's right, you get 1 rookie per box. I bought 3 boxes and got crap .

goudeygold

thanks for saving me $200 bucks guys. ripping packs is fun, but those odds aren't good enough for me. then again it would be fun, ahh screw it...

thanks for your quick input. the resources on this forum are excellent.

GG

Fabfrank

I ripped a ton of this product and you get, on average, 1 RC per box. The Rc's are part of the regular set, but limited and numbered to 1250. The total set is 171 cards and T. Brady is #118. If you are looking to pull a Brady RC, forget it. Buy a PSA 9 and save yourself the hassle. Board member Cspier (who has the #2 2000 Sp Authentic set on the Registry) is breaking up his set and is offering the Brady (PSA 9) for $745. Email him if you are interested.

NickM

Don't do it. Besides Brady, Pennington and Jamal Lewis (and occasionally Alexander) are the only other rookies hitting $100 or more in PSA 9 - and both Pennington and Lewis don't even always make $100. Your odds of selling what you get for a profit are very low.

Nick