New Buffalo Nickels--Predictions!
ddink
Posts: 2,748
630,000 Bison Two Roll Sets minted...banks getting in their second shipments of bisons from the Fed, prices of unopened $100 boxes finally trending down on Ebay, and mintage wrapping up over the next couple months, what do you think? It looks like demand is finally starting to saturate supply. I was initially bullish on the mint's two roll sets, but unlike the last two issues, the mint seems to have woken up and actually made enough to satisfy demand this time. With 630,000 made and no signs of sell-out on the horizon, does anyone still think these will be worth anything? If so, will it be short-, intermediate-, or long-term?
I initially ordered 600 sets, hoping, like most, for a quick sell-out. When this was not forthcoming, I figured that with them being backordered up till 4/15 then to 5/27, I could simply cancel my orders before the ship date if they didn't sell out by then. In early May they must have cleared some of the backorder because I got 125 of my sets in. I decided to cancel my remaining orders, based on the following reasons:
Initially I was bullish because of the Peace Medal rolls and the Keelboat rolls; as well as the 1999 quarter rolls all being worth so much more than release (at the time Peace rolls...issue price of $8.95...were selling for just over $100 per two-roll set). Keelboats were $15 per set on ebay. My logic was that I can only lose 55% of my money, since if the price falls too low on the secondary market, I could just spend them! 600 sets cost around $5,000, however, and I decided I could not really risk a loss of $3000...a loss which was beginning to seem more and more probably. Back in March I called the Mint's customer service and the lady said they were selling fast and would be sold out soon. Early threads on the subject said that others were told the same thing. Even in CoinWorld, the mint spokesperson admitted that demand was higher than they had anticipated.
Also, it was increasingly difficult to order $100 boxes of buffalo nickels from the banks, and one major chain in my area ran out. However, they just got a second shipment in, and apparently so have others. Boxes on eBay sat around $170 for awhile, but now they are close to $155 or so. Peace and Keelboat boxes sell for $200-$250. Hopefully if I stash away a box or two the price will rise when production ceases. My hope had been that such high demand could overwhelm the Mint/Fed's ability to cope (after all, the total mintage of Bisons will be around 800,000,000 and there are 300,000,000 people in America). Perhaps in the long term this will be so. Then again, it could be like the Bicentennial coins that others have mentioned.
As mintage figures climbed, the mint announced plans to use a satin finish on this year's mint sets. I was encouraged, since that meant people would have to pull business strikes from mint or bank rolls, rather than from mint sets. However, as the mintage grows ever higher I begin to wonder...
One reason that has been cited for the future lack of value for the two-roll sets is that dealers bought hundreds of them or even thousands. Do you think that many of these dealers have come to the same conclusion as me and cancelled their orders? If so, then perhaps the mintage will be largely held by collectors, which would eliminate downward pressure on the market. For me, it seems not worth the risk any longer. I just wanted, for what it's worth, to share some of my thoughts. These are the factors that changed my mind. Has anyone else who was bullish (or bearish) on this issue changed their mind? Why or why not?
I initially ordered 600 sets, hoping, like most, for a quick sell-out. When this was not forthcoming, I figured that with them being backordered up till 4/15 then to 5/27, I could simply cancel my orders before the ship date if they didn't sell out by then. In early May they must have cleared some of the backorder because I got 125 of my sets in. I decided to cancel my remaining orders, based on the following reasons:
Initially I was bullish because of the Peace Medal rolls and the Keelboat rolls; as well as the 1999 quarter rolls all being worth so much more than release (at the time Peace rolls...issue price of $8.95...were selling for just over $100 per two-roll set). Keelboats were $15 per set on ebay. My logic was that I can only lose 55% of my money, since if the price falls too low on the secondary market, I could just spend them! 600 sets cost around $5,000, however, and I decided I could not really risk a loss of $3000...a loss which was beginning to seem more and more probably. Back in March I called the Mint's customer service and the lady said they were selling fast and would be sold out soon. Early threads on the subject said that others were told the same thing. Even in CoinWorld, the mint spokesperson admitted that demand was higher than they had anticipated.
Also, it was increasingly difficult to order $100 boxes of buffalo nickels from the banks, and one major chain in my area ran out. However, they just got a second shipment in, and apparently so have others. Boxes on eBay sat around $170 for awhile, but now they are close to $155 or so. Peace and Keelboat boxes sell for $200-$250. Hopefully if I stash away a box or two the price will rise when production ceases. My hope had been that such high demand could overwhelm the Mint/Fed's ability to cope (after all, the total mintage of Bisons will be around 800,000,000 and there are 300,000,000 people in America). Perhaps in the long term this will be so. Then again, it could be like the Bicentennial coins that others have mentioned.
As mintage figures climbed, the mint announced plans to use a satin finish on this year's mint sets. I was encouraged, since that meant people would have to pull business strikes from mint or bank rolls, rather than from mint sets. However, as the mintage grows ever higher I begin to wonder...
One reason that has been cited for the future lack of value for the two-roll sets is that dealers bought hundreds of them or even thousands. Do you think that many of these dealers have come to the same conclusion as me and cancelled their orders? If so, then perhaps the mintage will be largely held by collectors, which would eliminate downward pressure on the market. For me, it seems not worth the risk any longer. I just wanted, for what it's worth, to share some of my thoughts. These are the factors that changed my mind. Has anyone else who was bullish (or bearish) on this issue changed their mind? Why or why not?
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
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Comments
they'll be worth 15-20 set maybe more. JMO
I'd be very surprised if you can't double your money once they sell out. Can't complain about that. Well, you can.....
I will open a couple and save the rest, Hoping they will go up in price later
RJ
I also ordered a few hundred and canceled. I might order more, not sure. But I had my eyes set on some dollar signs, I was hoping to make some good profit on the Bison, not so sure now. So I have a stash and hopefully I'll make some money, but I don't think it'll be the 60, 70, 100 dollars a set I was dreaming about.
Nothings easy.
has to be overlooked somewhat. Last years nickels drew much less attention
and were largely in circulation before everyone even saw one. These got atten-
tion even before they were released. Interest and demand can stay high for a
so it's not impossible prices can increase in the short term but in the longer term
they are very unlikely to maintain a large premium. Of course quality has been
generally very poor and it's entirely possible choice and gem pieces can be scarce
so these could do well. If the mint set coins are sufficiently different as to distin-
guishable from the "business strikes" than the prospects for gems will be very
greatly improved.
It's too early to write these off but it's probably a waste of time at this point to set
aside large numbers of MS-60's.