Coming full circle or half circle or whatever...

Buccaneer

As I constantly do, I analyze my collection in what I have bought/will buy as well as what I have sold/will sell. I have a very comprehensive database of everything I have done as far as this hobby going back to 1983 and I use that to slice and dice the data and analysis many different ways. I do this primarily because it's fun to look back over the decades to see all of the transactions (good, bad and ugly) and it is my nature to try to spend my money wisely. Anyway, all of this anal retentive work has resulted in me shifting focus several times in the past year. But you know what the latest shift is?

I will not (or should not) buy raw cards anymore.

It doesn't make any sense to me (for the years and grades that I am collecting). I have finally come to the realization (despite my arguments over the past 18 months) that a PSA graded set is the way to go. The cost of already graded cards to complete my sets will, without a doubt, be cheaper than buying raw and submitting. I have been doing this for stars since the beginning but each week, I am see graded commons go for not much more than what I would have to pay for raw. And more importantly, I see the increased confidence in selling PSA graded cards (vs trying to sell raw) on eBay. There is nothing wrong with building a raw set or a hybrid set (as I have done several times). But in seeing what I need to do to complete my sets (still have a long ways to go), I will now only look for graded cards.

This post is not worth anything but I just wanted to share how my thoughts have come full circle or half circle or whatever...

calleocho

We all come around...Its some powerful koolaid!

Raw cards are somewhat cheaper, but the prices are not all that much considering that condition its usually a couple of grades lower anyways.

Also for somewhat who changes their mind often, graded cards are as liquid as they come and can easily be sold or traded for a new interest.

I think Hybrid is the best way to go, there are some cards in my collection that it just doesnt make sense to grade ( cuban cards, 70's and on) but for the most part PSA graded cards offer quite a lot.

Try selling raw cards to a dealer even if you bought them from him...the condition of your cards suddenly take a dive.

I have sold back PSA graded cards to dealers for very close to what i bought them for and sometimes even for a little higher.

The registry its fun, and that comes from someone who collects lower grades, its fun to see how my set grows and stacks agaisnt the very best in the world.

For all the negative things some people say about PSA, at least in my personal experience PSA has really made collecting much easier and way more fun.

Mac53

Steve:
Interesting post. I have very limited experience, but completely agree that, at least for the mid-grade level that I'm trying to collect, it makes no sense to buy commons, even as a lot, and pay to get them graded, even during the specials. There seems to be an abundance of graded commons out there at very reasonable prices. What I'm unsure about is whether the same holds true for rookies and stars. I don't have the patience or training to crunch the statistics, but it seems like, if you know what you're looking for, you can still get pretty good deals on buying raw star and rookies and getting them graded. There seems to be a geometric progression in the prices of graded stars and rookies. But, you have found otherwise?

Buccaneer

Mac, that was one of the things that I learned early on. I use Beckett prices for raws and SMR for graded in my database and what clearly showed was the disparity of raw/graded between commons and stars. For commons, the graded list price is usually 3-5x the raw list price - but the prices of stars are about the same! The other reason is that I have found very, very few raw star cards in at least NM condition. Even when I do (assuming that it is described/graded accurately), the sale price is about the same as a PSA version. Even if adding the cost of grading still makes it profitable, it is better (and less riskier) to buy them already graded.

What I have come to realize is that commons are becoming that way as well when one ignore the SMR list prices and go off of what the market has set for such cards on eBay. For the years I collect, graded commons (individuals and lots) have constantly been going for 40-60% of SMR on eBay. Now instead of 3-5x the price of raw, it's more like 2x - and the difference is usually less than the cost of grading. For example, on the 1961 set that I had started and now selling, I had bought over 100 NM commons from Mick over the past year for $2.50-$3.50 each. PSA 7 commons on eBay have recently been selling in the $5-6 range.

Of course there are some 'commons' that you will pay a premium for but those make up a small percentage of the set. But also be aware that many here are going after and finding high-grade cards (8+) and the math is different with those.

Mac53

Thanks, Steve. That helps me understand. I appreciate your advice. Now, of course, the question will become whether the scammers are going to start putting fake 61 and 63 Mantles and Maris and Banks into fake PSA holders.

jrdolan

Nothing is more frustrating than to submit a raw card you are sure is a 9, pay $10-$15 to grade it (or $5 during a no-guarantee special), plus shipping and insurance, then find out the PSA grader thinks it's an 8 -- or worse yet, the dreaded "evid. trimming." The knife really twists when you see PSA 9 examples of that card sell on eBay for LESS than the cost of grading.

Mac53

Hear, hear, JR. What a pain! Those '63 commons are well known to be subject to trimming!!!

bobbybakeriv

I enjoy sending in raw cards for the fun of it. I definitely have lost my share of moolah in the process, but it is still fun. I guess for me, buying raw and then submitting is sort of like gambling. I do purchase many graded cards but I get more personal satisfaction out of submitting a card and then attaining the grade I need. This is just me though. No one ever accused me of being Warren Buffett.

Stingray

Buccaneer, are you a tax accountant by chance?

Stingray

gregm13

<< <i>Buccaneer, are you a tax accountant by chance?

Stingray >>



I am - which explains a lot about my personality

Regards,

Greg M.

Buccaneer

<< <i>Buccaneer, are you a tax accountant by chance?

Stingray >>



No, not at all (if being a TurboTax user for 12 years doesn't count ). I've been in IT (sort of) for a long time. I do, however, pay close attention to cost/benefit at work, as well as at home.