Suggested weighting of the Lincoln Memorial Basic registry set 1959-2005
haletj
Posts: 2,192 ✭
This weighting takes into account, for the most part, rarity in the mainstream collector grades (ms66rd for 1959-1981 and ms67rd for 1982-2005), but the rarity one grade higher also plays a small part. Rarity is not only determined by populations (and prices realized), but also the availability of quality orginal rolls of many dates. (I've been buying and searching rolls for two years). Please feel free to disagree and argue. Changes can be made until we come to a consesus!
59 3
59-d 3
60 3
60-d 3
61 5
61-d 6
62 4
62-d 8
63 5
63-d 10
64 3
64-d 3
65 3
66 4
67 4
68 4
68-d 3
68-s 2
69 4
69-d 4
69-s 5
70 3
70-d 3
70-s 3
71 3
71-d 3
71-s 4
72 3
72-d 4
72-s 4
73 3
73-d 6
73-s 8
74 2
74-d 2
74-s 4
75 2
75-d 3
76 2
76-d 5
77 3
77-d 5
78 3
78-d 4
79 2
79-d 4
80 2
80-d 4
81 3
81-d 4
82 3
82-d 3
83 3
83-d 3
84 2
84-d 6
85 4
85-d 2
86 3
86-d 2
87 3
87-d 3
88 4
88-d 3
89 5
89-d 3
90 3
90-d 1
91 3
91-d 1
92 1
92-d 1
93 1
93-d 1
94 3
94-d 2
95 2
95-d 2
96 2
96-d 1
97 5
97-d 3
98 2
98-d 2
99 1
99-d 1
00 1
00-d 1
01 1
01-d 1
02 1
02-d 1
03 1
03-d 1
04 1
04-d 1
05 1
05-d 1
59 3
59-d 3
60 3
60-d 3
61 5
61-d 6
62 4
62-d 8
63 5
63-d 10
64 3
64-d 3
65 3
66 4
67 4
68 4
68-d 3
68-s 2
69 4
69-d 4
69-s 5
70 3
70-d 3
70-s 3
71 3
71-d 3
71-s 4
72 3
72-d 4
72-s 4
73 3
73-d 6
73-s 8
74 2
74-d 2
74-s 4
75 2
75-d 3
76 2
76-d 5
77 3
77-d 5
78 3
78-d 4
79 2
79-d 4
80 2
80-d 4
81 3
81-d 4
82 3
82-d 3
83 3
83-d 3
84 2
84-d 6
85 4
85-d 2
86 3
86-d 2
87 3
87-d 3
88 4
88-d 3
89 5
89-d 3
90 3
90-d 1
91 3
91-d 1
92 1
92-d 1
93 1
93-d 1
94 3
94-d 2
95 2
95-d 2
96 2
96-d 1
97 5
97-d 3
98 2
98-d 2
99 1
99-d 1
00 1
00-d 1
01 1
01-d 1
02 1
02-d 1
03 1
03-d 1
04 1
04-d 1
05 1
05-d 1
0
Comments
Dan
You are a master collector in my opinion, you have time, and strategy to find the best Lincolns and I applauded you. However, the memorial cents are simply not that damn rare in any grade. Shocked with that statement? Let me explain. First let me say, I am a MS 66 collector. I too decided to do a memorial set. You can imagine my shock when I saw what a 1963 D goes for in MS 66. No way in hell am I paying $650 for that coin. I can upgrade a lot of pre 1940 Lincolns in my registry set to MS 66 for that amount.
I still think the information on just what is out there regarding rolls, scarcity and actual condition rarity is simply too unknown. We are talking Billions of cents compared to older coin mintages for a single year. I dare say, somebody is going to come upon a roll or 50 and that could change the pop numbers dramatically. To be more specific. If we play this game of paying more for numerical scarcity than I should be paying more for my MS 66 2004 cents than if I find them in MS 67 because the numbers are lower than the higher grades. Now, don’t you think that will shake out over time as more coins are graded? Sure it will, and it will also shake out for the 1963 cents too. Why? because even I have a bunch of rolls, bought from the bank and put in a cardboard box, Regretfully, I can not tell you what I even have. I am on a three year assignment on this island with no access to those rolls, But when I get off the island, and when those grandpa collections get passed down, and when those hoards are found, and when the safe is finally cracked open, and when the weirdo sitting in a shack in the desert finally dies, look out population reports on modern stuff. But the real reason these numbers are skewed is that Modern Lincolns are just not collected like the earlier ones. Need another number? look at the difference in the number of sets listed between the wheat’s and the memorials. And while there should be more in my opinion collecting the memorials, especially the YN, there simply are not. Those of us collecting Memorials have money enough to do so. I will close in saying, I am one of those who believes in the future. When these cents are dropped or changed in 2009, there will be big sake up in the cent values. It will impact the series tremendously which ever way it goes.
Now get back out there and find those darn 1963-d’s so I do not have to pay so much for one!
WS
<< <i>Jamie:
You are a master collector in my opinion, you have time, and strategy to find the best Lincolns and I applauded you. However, the memorial cents are simply not that damn rare in any grade. Shocked with that statement? Let me explain. First let me say, I am a MS 66 collector. I too decided to do a memorial set. You can imagine my shock when I saw what a 1963 D goes for in MS 66. No way in hell am I paying $650 for that coin. I can upgrade a lot of pre 1940 Lincolns in my registry set to MS 66 for that amount.
I still think the information on just what is out there regarding rolls, scarcity and actual condition rarity is simply too unknown. We are talking Billions of cents compared to older coin mintages for a single year. I dare say, somebody is going to come upon a roll or 50 and that could change the pop numbers dramatically. To be more specific. If we play this game of paying more for numerical scarcity than I should be paying more for my MS 66 2004 cents than if I find them in MS 67 because the numbers are lower than the higher grades. Now, don’t you think that will shake out over time as more coins are graded? Sure it will, and it will also shake out for the 1963 cents too. Why? because even I have a bunch of rolls, bought from the bank and put in a cardboard box, Regretfully, I can not tell you what I even have. I am on a three year assignment on this island with no access to those rolls, But when I get off the island, and when those grandpa collections get passed down, and when those hoards are found, and when the safe is finally cracked open, and when the weirdo sitting in a shack in the desert finally dies, look out population reports on modern stuff. But the real reason these numbers are skewed is that Modern Lincolns are just not collected like the earlier ones. Need another number? look at the difference in the number of sets listed between the wheat’s and the memorials. And while there should be more in my opinion collecting the memorials, especially the YN, there simply are not. Those of us collecting Memorials have money enough to do so. I will close in saying, I am one of those who believes in the future. When these cents are dropped or changed in 2009, there will be big sake up in the cent values. It will impact the series tremendously which ever way it goes.
Now get back out there and find those darn 1963-d’s so I do not have to pay so much for one!
WS >>
There is no doubt that there is a lot of truth here. But it should be kept in mind that just
because there may be a couple million of some specific date available in unc it does not insure
that any will be high grade. There are simply some dates that aren't seen in nice condition
and this won't change whether there are a dozen collectors or a million. Those who desire
to collect any of the modern coins in high grade should take a look at some raw coins to get
an idea of what's available. In many cases it will save him a lot of money simply because 2nd
tier coins are very plentiful so he can use one of these for his collection. You oftn can't tell that
these are common simply because they don't have enough value to slab so don't show up in
the pop reports.
Even the finest roll will rarely have more than 8 or 10 top notch coins. Coins getting out of the
mint with no damage is a major fluke and simply wouldn't happen fifty consecutive times.
One thing is a certainty; if there is ever as much demand for the memorials as there is for the
older Lincolns then the prices will be far higher than they are now. And this will even apply to
those which do turn up in some quantities.
I'm looking forward to the "hunt" to add to my memorial set.
It may have to take a back seat for a while, as I'm very interested in finishing a large cent set too.
So many coins, so little money.
For those of you that don't know me, I am VERY new to collecting...having only been in Lincoln registry sets for a little over a year. I just recently decided to conduct an experiment....on a small scale.....and I proved to myself why I should continue to buy memorials/wheats ALREADY SLABBED then look for and make them myself.
I purchased 5 rolls of 2005-P's, 5 rolls of 2005-D's and 5 rolls of 2000-D's (looking for coins worthy of MS68RD). All were original bank rolls.
Not a single 2005-P coin was even close to an MS68RD.....maybe three or four TOTAL would be fighting (and I mean fighting) for a 67 grade. The 2000-D's rolls were absolute junk. 65 or below.
So, is it safe to say that I would have to purchase 100 rolls of 2005-P Lincolns just to find 2 or 3 MS68RD's? 100 rolls would cost me $200 (not to mention a hell of alot of my time as well)....and for that...I could have just paid $50-$60 bucks for a slabbed one on the market...and been done with it. The other day I saw a 99-D being offered for $30 in 68RD. I could go out and buy 15 rolls of 99-D for $30....but would I find an MS68 in those rolls? Probably not. Plus, I would have to pay grading fee on top of that even if I did!
So, this brings me to my next question. Does the majority of these higher end coins (67's & 68's) come from Mint Sets or rolls? Do the mint employees hand pick out the nicer coins to insert in annual mint sets? If so, then I should be buying dozens of mint sets and not rolls?
Just a few thoughts for discussion....
<< <i>Now get back out there and find those darn 1963-d’s so I do not have to pay so much for one! >>
I can't! Really! I've probably looked through about 40-50 rolls of this date, from all different sources, and haven't even found a nice ms65. Not a single roll I've bought has been anything other than late die states. I think a nice early die state roll would be a true rarity. I'm not going to say they don't exist, but how long are you going to wait until a hoard of them turn up? And even if a hoard of them do turn up, by then the Memorials may be just as popular as the wheat cents and the price would still stay at $650 or more ($650 was exactly what I was going to say for an ms66rd 63-d if I had posted a price guide!).
So overall I've probably searched about 3000 rolls. The leading dates are 1961,1968-s and 1973-d where I've gotten close to 200 rolls of each. I really want those in ms67 (er I know I have some ms67 68-s's but pcgs is screwing me out of them). My best 61 and 73-d are really close. I also wonder how they would comare with the ms67's already graded. I got pretty lucky with 1963 and 1972-d where I just bought one roll from a small local shop, and they were about the 2 single best rolls I've ever seen of any dates. I guess it certainly is possible that someone has not only 1, but a hoard of such terrific rolls, and a serious increase in the pops could be made. But how many times has that happened in the last year or two? Zero! In the last year the only new ms67's 1959-1973 or D,S coins 1974-81 are Manorcourtman's 1963, BTC's 2 64-d's, my 64-d, BTC's 1 or 2 1965's, Clackamas's 1968, my 2 72-d's, my and pine valley's 76-d, my and pinevalley's several 80-d's. (I could be missing a couple more. In a week we can hopefully add my 77-d,79-d and 81-d to that!). That is not that many coins for a whole year! (I will add though, on the other hand, in ms66 of some dates it is more possible for a large pop increase... Pinevalley just added about a dozen ms66 76-d's, and then I just added another 27
<< <i>So, this brings me to my next question. Does the majority of these higher end coins (67's & 68's) come from Mint Sets or rolls? Do the mint employees hand pick out the nicer coins to insert in annual mint sets? >>
I say go with rolls all the way for 1959-1983. The mint did not do anything special with the coins for mint sets. It seems to me they got banged around even more. But there are a few dates I am looking in mint sets for and those are 69-p,73-s and 74-s. Maybe it's just because the rolls are such junk? (for 1969 I want a mint set as nice as Clackamas's 1968 mint set! An ms67 69-p quarter is my dream quarter). Sometime in the mid 80's the mint did start putting better coins in mint sets (maybe cladking knows when that started?). The mint set coins are often if not always fully struck. The coins in rolls are almost never fully struck, and that is the main thing keeping the pops down in ms68rd (at least for 1982-1989). 84-d I think is far and away the toughest zinc date. It took me over half a year just to find a single roll to buy, and although I've managed to buy about 100 rolls recently (60 from one source, the others from many random sources) ALL of them were spotted. (Thankfully the 60 of them are the least spotted and have some nice coins in each.) The mint set coins aren't as spotted but still never seem to be nice).
Thanks for all the great posts!
WS
If you weigh a 63 D Lincoln cent as 10 then how do you weigh a 1969 s DDO ? You have to take into account every coin be it a variety or a non-variety.
Stewart
<< <i>Jamie:
We are talking Billions of cents compared to older coin mintages for a single year. I dare say, somebody is going to come upon a roll or 50 and that could change the pop numbers dramatically.
WS >>
You just proved the point with this statement. The reason there are billions is that the mint used the heck out of the dies not to mention the obverse master for the 60's had not been reworked...since.. the 40's? With an MS66 bringing $600+ don't you think everyone (of those that try to make these coins) is shooting at it? They are and they can't hit the mark because they do not exist in decent condition in any quantity. For instance I, because I guess I like pain, went through 1800 1968 mint sets. I made a single 1968-P in MS67, none for the 68-D or the seemingly easy 68-S. These were first strike coins and are leagues better than the bank rolls you can buy.
Cheers,
Brian
<< <i>
<< <i>Jamie:
We are talking Billions of cents compared to older coin mintages for a single year. I dare say, somebody is going to come upon a roll or 50 and that could change the pop numbers dramatically.
WS >>
You just proved the point with this statement. The reason there are billions is that the mint used the heck out of the dies not to mention the obverse master for the 60's had not been reworked...since.. the 40's? With an MS66 bringing $600+ don't you think everyone (of those that try to make these coins) is shooting at it? They are and they can't hit the mark because they do not exist in decent condition in any quantity. For instance I, because I guess I like pain, went through 1800 1968 mint sets. I made a single 1968-P in MS67, none for the 68-D or the seemingly easy 68-S. These were first strike coins and are leagues better than the bank rolls you can buy.
Cheers,
Brian >>
If you tried this same thing today with nice fresh 1968 mint sets you wouldn't even
find one single Philly cent without carbon spots! In 600 sets I looked at a while back
there were only three coins that had one clean side. Only about 2% of the coins had
spots small enough that they still looked good, but even these had spots on both
sides in most cases.
The old coins exist in pristine condition only because collectors set them aside (in most
cases). It doesn't matter how many coins were made if they all went into circulation
and were worn, lost, or destroyed.
If you can't believe the coins weren't saved consider that everyone knew in 1982 and
1983 that mint sets wouldn't be made any more. Most also knew that these were the
primary source of older moderns. This caused the number of these coins set aside to
soar. Suddenly there were people actually saving some coins for the future. The 1981
quarter rolls which are a little scarce sell today for well under double face value. They
are cheap because there is still very little demand. The much more "common" 1983-P
roll wholesales at more than $1,000 !! This is because everyone who wants a set of clad
quarters needs one of these and there are no mint sets to cannibalize. Even though
there are well more than 50,000 unc '83-P's this is insufficient to meet the demand. Well,
there are other much scarcer moderns out there even if they were made by the billions.