Lincoln Cents and the Registry Ego
lloydmincy
Posts: 1,861 ✭
Mershon sale is a done deal. Many lots didnt sell, but select others for NO LIMIT prices. Seems a few out there REALLY NEEDED to have a few coins to get a few points for their registry set. Because there is no other reason for regular/heavy mintage lincolns to have sold for what they did. Over $90,000 for a 67 1909-s VDB, and the VDB is scarred?? A 1921 that was no where close to being nice, but because it was a 68, goes for more than most proof 1864-L on RIB cents??? Over $40,000 for a MS61 BROWN 1969-s Double Die??? Where was this buyer when the FUN sale had a 64RB that sold for under $35K??? I could go on.
No one is going to beat Stewart Blay. Somebody is having a hard time distinguishing value. Or maybe they just don't care. They just HAD TO HAVE THAT POP 7 OR POP 8 COIN!!!! EVERY 1909-s VDB in 66 RED should be cracked out today and resubmitted. Or maybe not - two bidders really wanted a coin that is worth half as much. My lincoln cents have gone up 50% today. YEAH RIGHT. This reminds me of the Internet boom.....
I do have to hand it to PCGS and Heritage and the Registry idea. WHAT AN AMAZING WAY TO GENERATE HIGHER COMMISSIONS. Keep high grade pops low to create unavailability and urgency. 5 68RD 1935's and 300+ 67's??? In the Lincoln cent case, have a few guys battle for spot #4, #3, or even #2.
They are turning Lord Master Stewart into the modern day John Jay Pittman. If you don't know who Pittman is, look him up.
No one is going to beat Stewart Blay. Somebody is having a hard time distinguishing value. Or maybe they just don't care. They just HAD TO HAVE THAT POP 7 OR POP 8 COIN!!!! EVERY 1909-s VDB in 66 RED should be cracked out today and resubmitted. Or maybe not - two bidders really wanted a coin that is worth half as much. My lincoln cents have gone up 50% today. YEAH RIGHT. This reminds me of the Internet boom.....
I do have to hand it to PCGS and Heritage and the Registry idea. WHAT AN AMAZING WAY TO GENERATE HIGHER COMMISSIONS. Keep high grade pops low to create unavailability and urgency. 5 68RD 1935's and 300+ 67's??? In the Lincoln cent case, have a few guys battle for spot #4, #3, or even #2.
They are turning Lord Master Stewart into the modern day John Jay Pittman. If you don't know who Pittman is, look him up.
The Accumulator - Dark Lloyd of the Sith
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Here are some staggering prices paid for MS67 coins:
1946 - $10,350
1947 - $8,050
1948 - $9,775
1952 - $6,325
1955d - $6,325
1957 - $10,350
Lloyd,
I was saving my 1000th post for a good thread.
I couldn't agree more. What a brilliant marketing idea and an incredible scam all rolled into one. The registry is making a few people very rich. It's getting to the point that it's just a question of who will be standing when the music stops.
PCGS (HRH) has created an incredible money machine. The beauty is that it is so simple. The registry creates the demand, while PCGS creates the artificial lack of supply. The principle is most evident in the late date Lincolns. DMWJR has nicely posted the prices realized for some of those dates. Pops on each of these coins is less than 10. The registry has created the frenzy (and demand) for these coins in 67RD. But, you know as well as I do that there are many 66's (and thousands of ungraded specimens) that are every bit as nice as those 67's. PCGS keeps the lid on the pops and they are flooded with submissions from folks trying to hit the jackpot. It's crazy. These coins were minted in the hundreds of millions. You can buy a roll of 50 bright red coins for 10 bucks!
There are people out there that will say "Well Jack, if there are so many superb gems out there, then you get a few graded!" Which is exactly my point...you CAN'T. Why? Because PCGS says so. The fallacy is that people believe that the coins truly don't exist. I've cherry picked rolls before. I have boxes and boxes of 66RD's of various dates. Most of these coins are as nice (some better) as the 67's I bought.
I have collected Lincolns since I was 9 (34 years) and seriously since 1988. I buy the best I can because that is what I want for my set, not because I want to beat someone else. Ironically, the registry is destroying that for me. I refuse to be part of this malignant process. Gerry has it right. Collect the best you can for yourself, not to beat someone by a hundredth of a point.
Jack
WS
The best thought provoking thread I have read in 2 years. And right on.
You and Lloyd have analyzed the process in a manner that is beyond question. The lid or cap that PCGS has put on the top pop coins, especially in the highly collected series, has artificially created a boom and eventually a nasty bust for more than a few collectors.
Any coin that has a population of more than 300 coins in 66, and maybe fewer than 10 in 67 (if there are thousands, if not millions of non-certified coins in unopened rolls) is guaranteed to be a disaster.
We are presently in a very good, advancing market, but the cycle will turn, at some time, and there will be periods of little or no growth in prices. Probably touching all series to a degree.
But the coins that will get the largest downturn, are always the ones that went up way too fast, in this case by Registry fever.
Caveat: I am not predicting an early end to the present solid coin market, for RARE coins. The deficit, loss of dollar value, and huge expenditures by the government will, in my opinion, make hard assets (that are hard to find, like truly rare coins) very desirable as a part of many investment portfolios.
Again, well said, and keep the intelligent and reasoned thoughts coming
CG
Comparative pricing/pops/mintage:
1946 - MS67 $10,350 ---- $80 in 66 (301/4) - 991 million
1947 - MS67 $8,050 ---- $60 in 66 (301/7) - 190 million
1948 - MS67 $9,775 ---- $70 in 66 (235/5) - 317 million
1952 - MS67 $6,325 ---- $100 in 66 (297/8) - 186 million
1955d - MS67 $6,325 ---- $25 in 66 (531/9) - 563 million
1957 - MS67 $10,350 ---- $60 in 66 (290/3) - 282 million
$50,000 vs. $400 is an unbelievable swing for one point considering the mintage numbers.
Now, there is one major problem though, and that is the consistency of grading. I totally agree with everything Jack said in his post. And pcgs has totally set the standards at that fine line of where it is nearly impossible to get a P mint 46-57 graded ms67. Any tiny shift in either direction and we would either have ms66 as the highest known grades for these (and they'd be common) or we'd have more ms67's (and they'd be common). In a perfect world, the line between ms66 and ms67 would be the same non-waivering line consistent for all dates 1909-2005 and then we could see which coins are truly rare in that grade. It is a fact that P mint coins 46-57 are typically lousy and exceptionally nice ones are indeed rare coins. Although not totally impossible, it is highly unlikely that someone has a hoard of 54-p rolls each containing an ms67. It's just as possible that someone could have an original red roll of 25-s or 26-s!
CalGold: I know for a FACT that your theory was not the case. I am going to elaborate slightly. Mr #1 and I had quite a few bids lined up - then we saw the (absurd IMO) reserves, and said forget it. Amazingly, some of these "high" reserves hit anyway, much to MY amazement. These were purchased from collectors needing that "special grade".
Maybe Ego was the wrong word I chose. I'll leave the title as is. I should have said Registry Rankings.
Think what it would be like without that Registry fueling some of these prices.
Right or wrong, ya got to suit up to play that game.
RR
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
You said;
<< <i>Although not totally impossible, it is highly unlikely that someone has a hoard of 54-p rolls each containing an ms67. It's just as possible that someone could have an original red roll of 25-s or 26-s! >>
You better ask Wayne Herndon himself about the 1943-1954 P mint cent rolls he was selling five years ago when each roll was averaging 10% or more in MS-67RD's. I kept all the ones he sold to me including fabulous 1952 and 1954 Philly cent rolls.
Back then fabulous rolls were much easier to find!
1926-S or even 1925-S cents? Forget about finding an original roll let alone one single piece!
will so I can keep them intact for the future
Tim
Lloyd - Why are you wining !!!! Did you buy any coins ? Forget the word Egomaniac and lets just call ourselves maniacs.I remember bidding against you for an 1899 Indian cent at the $60,000 price level.You don't even own an Indian cent registry set.And I'm just a nut job.I am really glad we both got outbid,aren't you ?
Doug - Mershons late dates were really nice coins.That is why the prices were so high.His 47 was a nice coin as well as his 48.His 55 D was a nice coin
Stewart
Who got the 55-D in 67RD?
I got beat by the winning bid on that one and thought I'd gone high enough with my internet bid.
I should have been there I guess.
Rick
I don't know... The way things are going these days, it would probably sell for $120k .
It seems that Virgil, the Penny Merchant, then Wayne and later Redbook were the last harrahs of obw cent rolls. I wished I had not broken up most of my BU rolls of mint marked cents from the 1920's back in the 1980's and 1990's. In hindsight, it was a dumb move. Cent rolls had gone nowhere for 15 years and instead wanted a particular 1955 DDO cent and mercury dimes.
Speaking of which, what the he11 has happened with the 1950-D BU roll prices??????? They have more than tripled in price in the past several years?????