Ben and Eli

mcmxi

I have a sp authentic sign of the times gold eli, and a playoff contender auto ben. I am looking for opinions on wether I should sell them now or put them up in my closet.

MarkLee

You are not allowed to call NFL quarterbacks by their first name until they have won more than one Super Bowl or MVP award.

mcmxi

I just cant spell them

helionaut

I'd sell them both. While April isn't the best time (you really should have sold them during the season if you had them then), football has become a year-round collector's sport. But with the draft comes a new round of hot QBs, and everyone will be trying to be the "next Roethlisberger". Unless Big Ben starts the season hot again, and Manning really comes of age in a hurry, they'll lose a lot of their sheen. If they are in extra-nice shape, don't forget to get them graded.

lostdart58

Don't they make ice cream??

CDsNuts

If you look at the 5 year span of every major rookie card over the last 5-10 years, I can't think of a single card that has appreciated or held its value the whole way. If you really believe that both of these guys will make it, sell now and buy when they're cold. That's pretty much the way to go with every potential investment card. For example, I sold my Jordan RC about 4 years ago at what I thought was its peak ($1000 in NM/MT) and Now I'm looking to buy one now (could get a high end 8 for $500-600). Every card has a dry spell for whatever reason (injury, slump, etc...) and that's the time to buy. And I also can't htink of many of the #'d and auto'd RCs that have come close to their peak in the first two years of release. Manning is probably the exception, but you could have bought his RCs reasonably low after his 3rd season when Moss had him overshadowed in the set. Remember Vince Carter, Edgerrin, Burrell, J.D. Drew, etc... All have lots of star power but their cards have all had downswings.

Lee

lawnmowerman

<< <i>If you look at the 5 year span of every major rookie card over the last 5-10 years, I can't think of a single card that has appreciated or held its value the whole way.

Lee >>

Just wanted to throw this out there. How about Tom Brady 2000 SP.

Matt

CDsNuts

Wait til the end of this year.

Lee

BigRedMachine

The Brady is a good example.

2001 bowman chrome Albert Pujols
1998 sp authentic Peyton Manning

Your point that these cards are probably at a high mark is well taken. But I got "back" into the card world in 2001, and if I would've bought these three cards as often as I could've back then, I might be retiring already.

goudeygold

cdsnuts is 100% dead on here. You may find a handful of exceptions out of literally thousands and thousands of different cards over the past 30 years and for the most part it is peak and sliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide. The hard thing is, the peak comes very quick so its tough to get in before its on anyones radar. kind of like penny stocks.

I would guage ebay and sell ASAP when either starts off hot this fall.

GG

orion9578

<< <i>Wait til the end of this year.

Lee >>



They are gonna take his 3 superbowl rings and 2 superbowl MVP's after this year?

CDsNuts

No, but when the Pats fail to contend for another title, his cards will not be nearly as hot and will be able to be had for about 50-70% of what they are now. And when they contend again they go up. That's usually how it works. They lost their two defensive leaders, both coordinators, a valuable WR/CB, and have failed to plug the holes. They'll probably make the playoffs but no way they win the the Super Bowl. And then Brady cards do what every other RC does. Why, you think they're going to keep going up through his retirement?

Lee

orion9578

lol, I just don't think his will drop quite as drastically as the others you have mentioned. What have they accomplished really? Besides being superstars, nothing. He on the other hand has ONLY Montana and Bradshaw ahead of him. Good company imo. Especially when you look at the fact that hes only 27/28 years old. I do however agree that they will drop some in price, seeing as theres a raw one up on ebay with nearly 3 days left and its up to 655 dollars .

CDsNuts

Definitely not knocking the guy. In fact, I'm knocking the collectors for how we can get all excited over a guy and pay way too much for his stuff, then when he has one so-so season his cards get cut in half. There's no athlete alive that can maintain an entire career without his stats dipping, his team losing, or without getting injured.

Lee

lawnmowerman

Why, you think they're going to keep going up through his retirement?

Lee >>

Lee, no offense but you were not talking about an entire career or after his retirement. You said" If you look at the 5 year span of every major rookie card over the last 5-10 years". I took that as a players first five years and I am pretty sure thats what you were meaning.

Matt

CDsNuts

I guess I mixed the messages up a little bit, but here's what I meant:


- This will be year 5 of his career, and I don't think the Pats will contend and his cards will go down.

- orion asked if they are gonna take his Trophy's and MVP's away after this year, and my argument there is that he will always have those, but at some point his cards have to go down.

Sorry for the confusion- should have been clearer. My point is this: How many guys who are destined for great careers have had something happen to make their cards cool off after everybody and their brother paid through the nose to get them? Think Kobe, Emmitt, Barry, The Admiral, Shaq, Guerrero, Moss, etc, etc, etc....... I'm just saying sell during the highs and wait for the lows to buy.


Lee



Lee

ndleo

I think Big Ben and Eli may have other factors to drive their cards higher.

First Steeler fans are crazy. I live in Detroit and at least 10-20K Steeler fans make it out for a pre-season game. If the Steelers make another run and Ben has better stats (his rookie year was average stat-wise), Big Ben will go up.

Eli didn't have a good rookie year, so we don't know the peak for his cards. If he has a decent season - 3000+yds, 25 TDs - his cards will go up with the New York hype machine.

Another one to look at is Kevin Jones. The Lions offense will be amazing next year.....all we need is a QB!

Stingray

I live outside of Detroit, what do think of taking Mike Williams instead of a defensive player?


Stingray

ndleo

Stingray - The town seems to be divided on Mike Williams. Everyone thinks he will be a good pro, however the Lions biggest needs were on defense. I think this pick has a lot to do with Joey Harrington. With 3 stud WR and a RB, there is no more excuses, Joey has to perform.

I don't think the pick was that bad. The detractors are pointing to D. Johnson from Texas, but the biggest need is at CB, not LB. When Aaron Rodgers fell out of the top 10, I think that messed up the draft for the Lions since the teams at 7/8/9 all took CBs. They would have taken Carlos Roger or Rolle if they dropped to 10.

lawnmowerman

<< <i>I guess I mixed the messages up a little bit, but here's what I meant:


- This will be year 5 of his career, and I don't think the Pats will contend and his cards will go down.

- orion asked if they are gonna take his Trophy's and MVP's away after this year, and my argument there is that he will always have those, but at some point his cards have to go down.

Sorry for the confusion- should have been clearer. My point is this: How many guys who are destined for great careers have had something happen to make their cards cool off after everybody and their brother paid through the nose to get them? Think Kobe, Emmitt, Barry, The Admiral, Shaq, Guerrero, Moss, etc, etc, etc....... I'm just saying sell during the highs and wait for the lows to buy.


Lee



Lee >>

Thanks Lee. I do agree with you

Matt

helionaut

The Steelers contending again is a big if. Bettis is another year older, and he might retire. They cruised through the regular season because they were a very good team playing a very soft schedule due to their poor performance the year before. Now they'll get the schedule a #2 team should be playing. Steeler fans may be crazy, New Yorkers are crazy, and young star QBs inspire craziness intrinsically, but you know, a bird in the hand. No rookie has come out high and stayed high. Even Pujols cards in 2002 were selling for less than in 2001, because he wasn't the "next big thing" anymore and everyone I think was expecting a bit of a let-down. And since he merely duplicated his 2001 season instead of improving on it, it sort of was a let down as far as speculators went. That prices came back and went so much higher is a testament to the high-end market, but it certainly is unusual. I'd definitely sell now and there's a very, very strong chance that you'll be able to buy them back later if you are attached to them.

Another point is that the SOTG isn't a "Beckett" rookie card, and unless you've got the Contenders RC Ben, then there's an even better chance prices will soften. In cases where prices have surged again after softening, inserts, even autographed ones, take a back seat as people would rather have "true" RCs than other things if they're going to drop serious bucks on them.

CDsNuts

What the pass-happy crazy teams don't always realize is that the most important aspect of your offense is the offensive line. The reason the Rams were so good when they had everybody was because their line gave the WR's time to get down the field and time for the QB to find whoever was open (not to mention a great running game). Unless they address those needs first, Harrington doesn't stand a chance. Not saying he would succeed even if he had a great O-line, but he'd certainly be better off. I like the Mike Williams pick because he was the best player available at the time, but if you really want to make your offense powerful you need a line. You could have Montana in his prime, Rice in his prime, Moss, Holt, and Sterling Sharpe pre-injury on your team and still not do squat if you don't give them time to get downfield. And Kevin Jones definitely looked good at the end of last year. I think there's a good chance Harrington doesn't start the opener. They didn't sign Garcia to be a backup.

Lee

goudeygold

what people need to remember is fans in general have very rosy glasses when looking into the future. when cards quickly peak, the expectation of supreme greatness is already factored into the price. So they always slide downward, often regardless of what they do. Look at Bonds. Even if he broke the HR record, his cards aren't going up. Its already expected that he will. Look at Pujols. Even if he won the triple crown, there MAY be a smalll blip up, but it will soon to go back down. Look at A-rod, Prior, Beltran, Piazza, virtually ANY star and you will get the same results. Peak early, long slow burn down. History isn't a perfect indicator price wise, but its amazingly accurate for every new "can't miss star". Collect modern for fun, if your lucky enough to get a hot card before the peak, SELL. then pick it back up in a year or two probably for a fraction of what you sold it for.

GG

ajw

<< <i> He on the other hand has ONLY Montana and Bradshaw ahead of him. Good company imo. >>



Great company, to be sure. Does anyone consider Terry Bradshaw a great investment? No. Brady's won a lot of games, but he's not ever going to be in the discussion of the best QBs of all time. Sorry. He's great at what he does, but he's not Favre, Elway, Marino, Young or Montana.

orion9578

<< <i>

<< <i> He on the other hand has ONLY Montana and Bradshaw ahead of him. Good company imo. >>



Great company, to be sure. Does anyone consider Terry Bradshaw a great investment? No. Brady's won a lot of games, but he's not ever going to be in the discussion of the best QBs of all time. Sorry. He's great at what he does, but he's not Favre, Elway, Marino, Young or Montana. >>



He also didn't/doesn't have any superstar receivers like almost all of the guys you have mentioned did. In my eyes that makes him all the more better or atleast on par. Factor in that and the fact that hes 27 years old and is probably only going to get stronger and better and what does that equal? Im sure we could sit here and argue different points all day long, I'm just stating my opinion .

rayny1

<< <i>

<< <i> He on the other hand has ONLY Montana and Bradshaw ahead of him. Good company imo. >>



Great company, to be sure. Does anyone consider Terry Bradshaw a great investment? No. Brady's won a lot of games, but he's not ever going to be in the discussion of the best QBs of all time. Sorry. He's great at what he does, but he's not Favre, Elway, Marino, Young or Montana. >>

I never understood why Favre is considered on that list? Ok, he won 1 SB. Thats it. Ok, he gave Strahan the sack record(which imho wasn`t earned and Gastineau is still the record holder! NO ONE liked him and he worked extremely hard for every sack). Other than that, why is he considered? Is it because of Green Bay fans? His personal life? Can`t be because of 1 SB victory. Can it?

ajw

<< <i>I never understood why Favre is considered on that list? Ok, he won 1 SB. Thats it. Ok, he gave Strahan the sack record(which imho wasn`t earned and Gastineau is still the record holder! NO ONE liked him and he worked extremely hard for every sack). Other than that, why is he considered? Is it because of Green Bay fans? His personal life? Can`t be because of 1 SB victory. Can it? >>



Favre is on the list because he's a great QB, but moreso because he's an exciting player that has really captured the public's attention. Brady hasn't reached the same level of public appreciation that the other QBs mentioned have. That's an essential part of what makes a player's cards valuable. Ted Simmons and Gary Carter were as good or better than Thurman Munson, but Munson is a lot more popluar, so his cards are worth more. I'm not saying that Brady isn't popular. He is. But, he's not the most popular or most famous QB in the game, and to me that will limit his collectibles. People like Brady, but not that many people love him and few people truly believe he's the best QB in the game, much less the best player in the game. Those things may not matter in winning games, but they matter a LOT in card values.

CDsNuts

Favre is a working-class guy who has led his team with gritty and gutty performances year in and year out. He's exciting to watch, makes the players around him better, and can single-handedly win games. Sure he makes a bad decision every now and then (the last pass in the playoffs last year, Strahan's "sack"), but his career will be measured on his willingness to get dirty, take risks, ability to win games, and how great he was to watch. Never took the easy way out and always played injured. Truly what football is all about. No doubt he belongs on any greatest QB list, and his career shouldn't be measured by one insignificant "slip" that led to another player to catch some glory (although I agree it was total BS). What QB was more fun to watch in the last 30 years?

Lee

ndleo

As a Detroit fan that has watched Favre end many Lions playoffs hopes, Favre deserves to be one of the best. Besides all of the rah rah Madden stuff, Favre is #3 in passing yds, #2 in completions, and #2 in TD passes. Add 2 SB appearances and one ring.

I have to defend the Lions O-line. The line has been good enough to win. In 2003, Joey was only sacked 9 times. The total went up to 36 in 2004 because Joey is slow to make the reads. He gives up on a play too soon and looks for the TE or RB to bail him out. Plus sacks were up in the league across the board. Even Tom Brady got hit for 26, Big Ben got 30, and McNabb 32 with their great O-lines.

Hopefully Joey will show something this year because it kills a team to get nothing from a top draft choice. But if Joey blows, then bring in Garcia. I can't stand to see all of this talent wasted.

CDsNuts

ndleo,
You know better than me. If their line is decent than I don't believe Harrington deserves another chance for the reasons you stated and the fact that he has the build of a 12 year old girl. You would think with legs that thin he'd at least be very fast. I'm all for Garcia who had a decent year with the Browns with the worst O-line in the game. He kept getting rocked but kept them in a lot of games they should have been blown out.

Lee