Population numbers- Which is most significant?

RegistryNut

This newbie says hi again and thanks for some more advice. If I have a coin with a population of, let's
say, 512/84 which figure is more important? I am in the registry date set and sometimes it's hard to
decide which coin to include. The P, D, or S. I try to use the population report in deciding but some dates
just don't have a clear "best specimen". You guys always seem to know and I thank you again.

RegistryNut

roadrunner

The population of the coin in hand is the most important. Listing the next grade up pop is a marketing tool, usually to get more $$$.

Many coins have high pops in one grade, and are almost non-existant a point higher. Hence many buyers list the next grade up.

But all are important to get a full flavor of the coin's value. Compare PCGS to NGC pops. And check pops both higher and lower. If you are buying a type coin you have to look at the total pop for that entire type. And sometimes you have to compare the proofs vs the uncs to in order to asses full value. Sometimes you need to go to different series that are comparable (like a seated quarter vs a seated half or a bust half vs a bust dime) to see if things all make sense. Often times in proofs I'll compare Barbers/Morgans to Seated/Trade dollars to see if pricing is in line or not. Big coins to big coins or small coins to small coins. You just might be able to ferret out something undervalued. But don't compare things that are popular to something with much less popularity like Morgans to 3 cent silvers...that won't work as a rule. But moderns to moderns is pretty safe for comparably in-demand coins. The more you compare things the more things will fall out in your lap....the more you'll be enlightened. And when things don't fall out, keep comparing until omething does. Spend an hour or two going over the pop reports. They do have something to offer both pos and neg.
Pop reports offer nothing to those who don't do the research and who don't bother to understand what they really show.

roadrunner

DAM

Edited because RR gave an excellent answer!!!

segoja

RR,

Great advice!

RBinTex

"Hence many buyers list the next grade up.

But all are important to get a full flavor of the coin's value. Compare PCGS to NGC pops. And check pops both higher and lower."

& don't forget to check the ANACS pop report. You'd be amazed how often a coin seems "scarce" when relying on the PCGS &/or the NGC pop report only to find that ANACS has graded MULTIPLES of the COMBINED total of BOTH PCGS AND NGC for a particular coin.

yellowjacket

RBinTex and Roadrunner are right on target Re: pop reports. Know how liberal/conservative a service grades various series. This needs to be taken into account when comparing reports of different services. There may be higher numbers of a given grade in a given series by a liberally grading service. Am I making any sense?

dpoole

The pop at the highest grade is reasonably reliable. The pop figure for the next highest grade is almost always inflated by unreported crack-outs and resubmissions, particularly at PCGS, and particularly if the highest grade pop is significantly lower.

roadrunner

And you can look at some pop reports and see how a coin is inflated in one grade and not the one above or below it. My favorite example is the MS63 1839 no drapery half at PCGS. NGC has far less pieces and a smoother curve from 60 to 64. You can tell someone (Contursi?) resubmitted a single 63 coin maybe up to 3-6 times to come up with the pop of 11 in MS63. It was at 10 for several years. Since it is now down to 11 from 13 I can only assume that Mr. Contursi must have had at least 2 of those flips in his arsenal of 13,000 tags.

roadrunner

RegistryNut

Excellant replies and I thank you all again. It's a pleasure knowing my fellow collectors can always
provide answers for my questions.

RegistryNut

GTS

DPOOLE you are absolutely correct crackouts skew the pops, hopefully everybody mails those labels in after they finish their handy work or else it depreciates the values of the coins by falsely inflating the numbers.
GTS

RegistryNut

I received my crossover submission in the mail today. PCGS sent me the tag of the NGC coin that did
cross. I will send it to NGC to keep population reports accurate. But couldn't the coin grading companies
do this and actually ensure it gets done? A little interaction between these companies could be quite
valuable IMO.

RegistryNut

Boom

Hi RegistryNut, Member DPoole did a fine job of explaining why population numbers can NEVER be accurate. I suggest you re-read and maybe print his post and tape it right in front of you wherever it is that you usually sit and enjoy your hobby.


< < A little interaction between these companies could be quite valuable IMO. > >

I know you meant this earnestly but in truth, the chances of this happening are basically very slim. As DPoole said ( and by no means is this a quote). Even if every participant made a concerted effort to report, in light of crackouts, resubmissions, crossovers etc, population reports could NEVER be accurate even if everyone co-operated and co-existed in harmony. Basically, take the pop report with a grain of salt....it's a fair "Guesstimation" of what is out there and can never be considered "Gospel"