Just bought my first high dollar vintage - 1959 Topps Mantle PSA 8

ndleo

I decided to sell a few stocks to see if I could do better with high dollar vintage. I figure I could do at least the 8-12% that stocks generally return. I wanted to get into vintage football first, but I was lucky enough to get a 1959 Topps Mantle PSA 8 for $1750. I'll post a scan when it arrives.

fensfan

which stocks did you cash out of? In the short run quality vintage may indeed outperform, or at least better hold value. would be very interesting, however, to compare over the next 18-24 months. not for the faint of heart, for sure! Good luck.

ndleo

OSIS - optical security supply company
CTXS - remote office networking
SCH - Charles Schwab

I will probably manage a "portfolio" around $6000. I've been trying to buy cards at the low end of ebay rates or cards that I think will go up, not too complicated basically buy low and sell high. So far I have the following:

1959 Topps Mantle PSA 8
1955 Topps Aaron PSA 6
1974 Topps Winfield RC PSA 8
1975 Topps Mini Brett RC PSA 7
1970 Topps Carew PSA 8
1972 Topps Ryan PSA 8
1978 Topps Molitor/Trammell PSA 8 x3

I got the Aaron for $180, Winfield $43, Brett $35, Carew$23, Ryan $125. I am betting on the Molitor/Trammell card to go up if Tramm can get the Tigers to the playoffs. I would go for PSA 9 on this card, but not enough come up for sale.

Buccaneer

1974 Topps Winfield RC PSA 8
1975 Topps Mini Brett RC PSA 7
1970 Topps Carew PSA 8
1972 Topps Ryan PSA 8
1978 Topps Molitor/Trammell PSA 8 x3

It is my perception that these cards will not go up and may continue to decline in value since their Highs of the late 1980s. For 1970s cards, these are not high enough grades to have much, if any, investment values. The Mantle is excellent, not only will it maintain its demand, but it is of true investment grade for that era. The Aaron card is at collectors grade but should retain its value as Aaron cards have been increasing in demand recently. But the supply of collector grades cards from this era is still quite abundant so it will not be in the class of the Mantle.

Since you follow the market, there is a similar methodology for cards. You would need to study the SMR Population Report here to get a better feel for supply, and to study the Registry to get a feel for demand. Add that to keep track of sales on eBay to get a feel for value.

Just my .01

Buccaneer

To clarify, the terms “collectors grades” and “investors grades” vary by era. I believe that collectors grades for cards in the 1950s and 1960s would be PSA 5 – 7, with investors grades being PSA 8 – 10. Somewhere in the late 1960s (probably 1968), it shifts up to where PSA 9- 10 are considered investors grades for cards in the late 1960s and 1970s. Then it goes up to PSA 10 somewhere. Of course, there are exceptions like 1971 being more condition sensitive to where PSA 8 would certainly be investors grades. On the other end of the spectrum, you have the pre-WW2 cards. As hot as they are right now, almost any cards in mid-high grades would be a good investment, I believe (and probably the same for the early 1950s Topps and Bowman issues).

stevek

No way you can go wrong with high grade 50s and 60s Mantles.

larryallen73

When buying cards to "flip" for a profit be careful you are not just "buying the holder." I know when I first started buying graded cards I would buy based on the PSA grade and didn't look closely enough at the card. There can be a HUGE disparity in quality, and hence price, between a high grade 8 and a low grade 8 for example. Be very careful you are not buying just on the PSA grade says it is. Additionally, I think like any commodity you can make money in cards but in the long run you are better off enjoying your cards and getting a good day job!

ndleo

Thanks for the advice. I'm not looking to get rich off this. If I can return 8-12% on the $6000 grand, I will be happy. This amount is just play money. Most of my money is in orange juice!

calleocho

I dont think you can make money right now on anything post 69 long term.

you might make around 10 % in two years.

good luck!

ndleo

What does everyone think about vintage football? I think the disparity in values between vintage baseball and vintage football stars will have to close eventually. The NFL hasn't done the same job as MLB in promoting its history, but with the NFL Network, maybe they will start.

halosfan

I would consider myself a collector not an investor. That being said, why would a collector desire a lower quality/graded card than an investor? I have always taken the mindset to buy the nicest example of whichever card I was looking for that I could afford. As a collector I would much rather have a PSA 8 Aaron RC than a PSA 6. Just my two cents. Maybe someone else can explain this "line of acceptability".

calleocho

Halos,

I agree with you that a collector usually will try to have the best cards they can afford.

however since ndleo is trying to make some money...maybe some mid grade cards are undervalued right now.

its a lot easier for a $100 card to jump to $200 than it is for a $1000 card to jump to $2000

think about it, lets you say his 100 dollar cards its worth 125 dollars in two years, that seems reasonable

and his 1000 card its worth 1200 in two years which would be pretty good

it would obviously make sense to buy the highest graded card that you can afford if you are primarly a collector

but in his case since he has 6 grand to spend he could get 60 cards worth 100 and make 7500 two years later or buy 6 $1000 cards and make $7200

Myself, i would stick with stocks

walmart:


walgreens:


Ebay:

koby

<< <i>I would consider myself a collector not an investor. That being said, why would a collector desire a lower quality/graded card than an investor? I have always taken the mindset to buy the nicest example of whichever card I was looking for that I could afford. As a collector I would much rather have a PSA 8 Aaron RC than a PSA 6. Just my two cents. Maybe someone else can explain this "line of acceptability". >>



I would also prefer a PSA 8 over a PSA 6 Aaron rookie, but that would cost way more and I would be able to collect far fewer cards. For the price of a PSA 8 Aaron rookie, I can almost buy the following:

PSA 6 Aaron RC
PSA 6 Banks RC
PSA 6 Clemente RC
PSA 6 Koufax RC

As a collector (not investor) I would choose the latter. I would much rather have a larger collection of decent cards rather than just a few stelalr cards. JMO

TheCARDKid

<< <i>Thanks for the advice. I'm not looking to get rich off this. If I can return 8-12% on the $6000 grand, I will be happy. This amount is just play money. Most of my money is in orange juice! >>



Have you followed any advice from Jim Rogers? He's a huge bull on commodities for the next 10-15 years. He lays out a great case based on supply and demand.

As to investing in cards, I'd stick to pre 1969.

kengoldenisthedevil

ndleo,
i am trying a similar thing as you (i think you may have outbid me on the 59' lol).i only buy vintage cards and am trying to put together a personal set of mickeys best cards from 1951-1961 in "investment"grades. I have a 53 and 56 in psa 7and 55 (bowman),57, 58 and 61 in psa 8. I am looking for the 59 and 1960 in psa 8 at this time as the 51 and 52 are going to take little more saving up .My plans are to save for my son when he grows up (only 2 now) .I was wondering what you guys think the long term prospects of trying something like this are.
As for calleoco's chart showing the growth if you would have invested in those stocks i would point out for every chart like ebay there is a chart like enron's...I have tried my hands in the market and got raped for it. I figure this way i am saving (hopefully)my funds in a way i enjoy. Hopefully they will be worth more then i paid down the line.only time will tell but i can't see how you can go wrong with buying vintage such as mantle, ruth, cobb and pre war suff.I try to tell my buddy who i go to shows with instead of buying 5-7 boxes of sp prospects at a time to buy a nice mathewson t206 psa 5 and put it away but he doesn't get it..who knows maybe im wrong.

calleocho

Ken:

I am with you on the fact that cards are way more fun than getting a crappy statement from the bank telling you just just earned a few dollars from interest.

However the issue of investment has been written about on the board to great detail and while mixed, most people agree that its very dangerous and most likely dissapointing to expect big gains in a relative short term when it comes to sportcards.

vintage cards while quite safe, do suffer from spikes and downturns so in order to make a large profit a long time has to pass by.

A safe investment would be a CD...cards should only be bought with disposable income and treated like any other hobby.

Also the only people that make a lot of money, are guys who have been nuts on particular sets and have become experts, and know when its the best time to buy and sell.

its just hard to make any decent money on a consistant basis investing in baseball cards part time.

for example you buy a $100 card on ebay

add $5.00 for S&H

you have now invested 105

hold the card for 2 years.

since the card does not generate any income at all, it actually costs you money to keep it since the $100 bucks could have been sitting in the bank making money.

lets say 8 dollars lost

cards now costs 113

two years pass by and you sell your card

lets say it increases a whopping 40 % which its quite unlikely to begin with

so the card sells for 140 dollars

lets say between ebay 7% and paypal 3 % thats $14 dollars in fees ( not sure but it seems ok)

so the cost of buying your cards (105) + holding your card ( 8) + selling fees (14) total $127

140-127 = $13 dollars profit or roughly 12% gain this of course does not include trips to the post office, pacacking cards dealing with ebayers, time looking for cards etc.

considering that not too many cards have gone up 40% in the last two years, I just dont know how anyone could make a killing or even a decent profit.

goudeygold

Its nice to "invest" in cards compared to stocks because its more tangible. However, if you want to play with it and see (and not count on it for retirement) its a good idea. I wouldn't drop 40 grand on a PSA 7 52 topps card, hoping it hits 44,0000 in a year but a few hundred here and there is kinda fun. However, again i'm going to state for you investors pre 48 is the place to be. Unless your looking at PSA 9-10 in the 60s and 9s or true low pop 8s in the 56-59s or solid 8s in the 48-55 years, your taking a big risk if your just looking at it for investing. My investment suggestion would be pre 48 PSA 6 and higher. 8s are very expensive and throw out SMR, however you can still find decent commons graded at the 7 level for around SMR at times. Bottom line is I really don't think you will lose any money with pre war buying at "decent" prices and holding. It will always be better to have one 7, then four 3s.

I'm becoming convinced the 50s at the 5-6 level is plentiful raw and graded. Even with the dear 52 Topps it seems like finding PSA 8s is becoming easier lately. They are all over ebay and the auction houses and prices seem to be softening relative to a couple years ago.

JMO

GG

Buccaneer

goudeygold, excellent analysis.

TMc

You can't go wrong with the Mantles. I have way too much $ in PSA 8 Mantles. But this is investment only. Time will tell. The reason I like these as opposed to pre 48 is just popularity. The reason for the PSA 8s is that the grade does bring rarity back into play. Put Mantle together with popularity, and rarity and you have a sound investment...I hope.

sayheykid54

The key thing in terms of value and potential appreciation on the 1959 Topps Mickey mantle card is going to be the centering. There are alot of high-grade examples out there to choose from so the centering is a huge factor in terms of value. Could you please post a picture of the card?

LloydsBaseballCards

just make sure to watch the centering on those high dollar investment grade Mantles, a little too oc can kill it in my opinion.

LloydsBaseballCards

sorry, missed sayhey's response

Whale

Sayhey, True if you can buy a prefect centered card for the same price as an off center card, but better centered cards sell for premiums because collectors looking for centering will pay a premium for them. I found four 1959 PSA 8 Mantles on Ebay. Each card sold or was listed for a different price based on how well the card was centered.

SMR on the card is $2300.
This card sold for $2801.00 http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=55917&item=5168401532
This card was offered at $2399.99 http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=55917&item=5176607470
This card sold for $1876.00 http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=55917&item=5178438061
This card sold for $1732.00 http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=55917&item=5178424168

More people will buy a card based on lower price than those who will pay a big premium. The unsold card at $2399.00 was nicely centered but nobody wanted to pay a premium for it at that time. It looks like people are willing right now to pay $1700.00 to $1800.00 for one. If you paid $2801.00 for one as an investment, will you be able to find somebody else like you who'll pay a huge premium for the card. If you buy a card based on price at $1700-$1800 you'll have more people who'll want to buy it at that level. If Mantle cards go up in price 30% in 5-10 years then they'll all increase in price centered or not. A $1700-$1800 card might then go for $2200-$2300 and the premium $2800 card might sell for $3500 if you're able to find the guy who'll pay a huge premium for centering. You're probably safer to be in cheaper end cards than the high-end premium cards. Take away premium payers and you've got yourself a PSA8 Mantle like everyone else.