Why the true rarities in high grade will continue to outperform this bull market
TahoeDale
Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭
Most of the leading experts(Individual and company) have been giving market reports painting a rosy picture for coins, starting over 2 years ago, and estimating the future gains for another (up to) 5 years.
Which series, coins and grades will lead the way? It appears that the early bust coinage is on top, with the true rarities from every series not far behind. And the high demand collector dates, though no longer rare, seem to find new record prices as more of the new friends to the collecting community spend more discretionary income on coins rather than stocks and bonds.
I will list several series in grades that I believe will outperform the general increases we will happily see for some time. One caveat: my personal opinions, based on being an active collector for the last 13 years.
In no special order:
1. Early gold in AU 58 or better. All denominations
2. Early bust (1794 to 1807)
a. Dollars- AU 55 or better
b. Halves- MS 60 or better
c. Quarters- MS 62 or better
d. Dimes- AU 55 or better
e. Half dimes- MS 62 or better
f. Cents and half cents- AU 50 up, with the rare dates only
3. Liberty Seated
a. Key dates in MS
b. CC coinage- all grades for the rare dates
c. MS and Proof dollars in 66 or better
4. Barbers- MS 66 or better; Proof 67 or better
5. For all the series beginning after 1900, and for the small denomination coins( 2 cent, 3 cent C and S, 5 cent shield and Liberty) only the rare dates in MS 66 or better. I believe the walkers and standing lib quarters will do well, but not as well as others.
And what if you are not collecting any of these coins, and have no plans to do so? Have fun, but don't expect gains like you have seen recently. The market can only go so far, if based on demand only. Rarity will win out over demand and hype in the long run. I don't think I need to describe the individual coins that have run up substantially, even with pops of hundreds of 66's and thousands of 65's.
Much of what I have opined is based on the very nice gains I have in some of the series mentioned above, and on the modest gains, if any, I have in the less rare coins in my collection.
Which series, coins and grades will lead the way? It appears that the early bust coinage is on top, with the true rarities from every series not far behind. And the high demand collector dates, though no longer rare, seem to find new record prices as more of the new friends to the collecting community spend more discretionary income on coins rather than stocks and bonds.
I will list several series in grades that I believe will outperform the general increases we will happily see for some time. One caveat: my personal opinions, based on being an active collector for the last 13 years.
In no special order:
1. Early gold in AU 58 or better. All denominations
2. Early bust (1794 to 1807)
a. Dollars- AU 55 or better
b. Halves- MS 60 or better
c. Quarters- MS 62 or better
d. Dimes- AU 55 or better
e. Half dimes- MS 62 or better
f. Cents and half cents- AU 50 up, with the rare dates only
3. Liberty Seated
a. Key dates in MS
b. CC coinage- all grades for the rare dates
c. MS and Proof dollars in 66 or better
4. Barbers- MS 66 or better; Proof 67 or better
5. For all the series beginning after 1900, and for the small denomination coins( 2 cent, 3 cent C and S, 5 cent shield and Liberty) only the rare dates in MS 66 or better. I believe the walkers and standing lib quarters will do well, but not as well as others.
And what if you are not collecting any of these coins, and have no plans to do so? Have fun, but don't expect gains like you have seen recently. The market can only go so far, if based on demand only. Rarity will win out over demand and hype in the long run. I don't think I need to describe the individual coins that have run up substantially, even with pops of hundreds of 66's and thousands of 65's.
Much of what I have opined is based on the very nice gains I have in some of the series mentioned above, and on the modest gains, if any, I have in the less rare coins in my collection.
TahoeDale
0
Comments
You never answered the question of your post ?
Stewart
ps. - how about a 1909 s VDB in ms 67 red ? , a full red 1922 No D strong reverse LIncoln cent ? a 1916 SLQ in ms 67 full head ? or even a 1796 quarter in ms 66 ?
I think I mentioned in #5 that all other rare dates in MS 66 or better will do well,i.e. outperform the general increases in the market. That certainly includes low pop high grade Saints. But Jay and Steve D have that market cornered.
Stew- all the specific coins you mentioned fit the criteria under # 5. If I started to name individual coins, Jay would have been even harsher on me!
Stew- you are correct. I never did answer the specific question posed. Why will this group CONTINUE to outperform?
1. Classic series have (almost) known and certified pops. No or few rolls of coins were ever put aside. The TPG's have been around for 19 years plus, and I feel comfortable with the relative rarity of the higher end coins of that era. I do not as to coins after 1900, except for the high end rarieties. In 1995 when I bought my second 1909-S VDB, this time in PCGS 66 red, the pops indicated 26 coins in that grade. Today, over 125 have been graded. Duplicates occur, but the accuracy of the population of many coins cannot be assessed, must less guaranteed.. That doesn't mean that 66 reds haven't gone up since 1995-they have, and quite substantially.
But will they outperform from this time forward? I don't think so. But don't sell your 67 red yet.
2. Collector demand moves around various series all the time. But I think it stays firm in the areas mentioned. Like you said, there will always be collectors and investors who will yearn for a high end 1796 quarter, or an 1804. The same with the 1796/7 halves. The CC Seated libs, the 1901-S quarter, etc.
3. The big new money that comes into the rare asset community buys the big coins, not the regular stuff. It is still arriving on the scene, and will continue to fuel the increases in high end rare coins.
SAINTS COUNT!
Camelot
Dale,
This brings up an interesting question (with regards to pre-1900 coins and coins through 1930), relative to the current bull market. We've seen coins at all grade levels come out of the woodwork. As a result (third party graded) high grade and top-pop populations have increased over the past several years, in some cases substantually. As you stated, "Duplicates occur, but the accuracy of the population of many coins cannot be assessed, must less guaranteed". Some of the population levels have increased well above what might be considered duplicate submissions. This would likely have to be a result of mostly "new" material being submitted, even though the accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
With this in mind would you consider the lion's share of high grade coins (except collections that may never be encapulated) have been, or are going to be graded by third party graders in the near future, to take advantage of the current market? If so, it would lead me to believe the next bull market, assuming we live long enough to see it, would not bring as many "new coins" to market. Therefore, adding even more support to your "list".
If this assumption is true, and supply and demand drive the next bull market, coins may bring Jupiter money prices, compared to the moon money they sell for today.
Just a thought.
I love your reference to Quality. Most important! But the pq quality of a Proof walker in 67( it might bring 68 money) cannot compare with the rarity of the 1880 Shield, or the 1864 with L proof indian cent in high grade. These rare coins will outpace almost all others that rely on pq quality or grade alone.
DAM-- There could be much opposition to the point you made about the liklihood that almost all high end coins are going to be graded by the TPG's, and thus fewer coins will be available to the larger collector base. I tend to agree that because of careful preservation, and the pricing the market gives to correctly graded coins, that will occur. It will surely drive up the prices of the "few" 1801 and 1802 halves in higher grades. Even the non-certified F-12's.
Saintguru- I like your dirty pictures better
Don't bet on the same forumula working for years. That means key dates especially and CC morgans. Just because they have kicked butt for several years means they will keep doubling in price?? No way. That's like saying the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P, and real estate will continue to kick butt like they did from 1995-2001. Don't count on it. Rather, look at desireable areas that have yet to truly participate in this market. Do you think every new buyer to the market is going to want a 1916 SLQ after the prices has tripled already? Who will be the first to pay $100K for a VF 1796 half dollar? They started out around $18-20K and now hang around $50-60K. Now why not a gem MS65 Proof No Motto seated half that has not changed in price in 3 years? Or an 1854 seated quarter in MS65 of which very few nice ones even remain?
roadrunner
Don't bet on the same forumula working for years. That means key dates especially and CC morgans. Just because they have kicked butt for several years means they will keep doubling in price?? No way. That's like saying the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P, and real estate will continue to kick butt like they did from 1995-2001. Don't count on it. Rather, look at desireable areas that have yet to truly participate in this market. Do you think every new buyer to the market is going to want a 1916 SLQ after the prices has tripled already? Who will be the first to pay $100K for a VF 1796 half dollar? They started out around $18-20K and now hang around $50-60K. Now why not a gem MS65 Proof No Motto seated half that has not changed in price in 3 years? Or an 1854 seated quarter in MS65 of which very few nice ones even remain?
roadrunner
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as per the above unbelieveable roadrunner you never cease to amaze me you sum things up extremely well short sweet and to the point
Camelot
I agree that the demand for rare coins does gravitate to other series that may be presently static. And I included later bust coinage and lib seated in the higher grades. I also intentionally left out Morgans, there appears to be much that has already happened to a series with very high pops across the board.
I am going to amend the reference to early bust as to the dollars, to include MS 60 and above( I first said AU55). A quick summary of the MS coins graded by PCGS shows the following:
Total small eagles grade-21
total heraldic eagles graded-170
So less than 200 coins have been graded by PCGS in MS 60 or better. And I assume there would be similar numbers at NGC, perhaps a few more.
I do not believe the increases we have had in this area is going to slow down, with less than 500 MS coins(by the 2 primary grading services). Sure, the VF's to AU, with a lot higher pops, may have crested.
I also looked up the pops on the 1796/97 halves. PCGS had graded about 135 coins of a total mintage of 3900. 96 of these grade VG to VF. That leaves 39 coins XF or better.
NGC has graded 78 coins, with 41 G to VF. Add another 37 coins to the PCGS total and there are 76 coins graded by these services above VF. I also do not expect to see a VF example hit 100,000 in the next 5 years, but who knows? There is an absolute scarcity of this series in nice condition.
For comparison, PCGS and NGC have graded(pop report-wise) over 200 1909-S VDB's in 66 red. That's close to the total number of all 1796/7 halves.
I do not think the early bust coinage has yet peaked, with more gains in the higher graded examples to come.
ps: MS 65 and better liberty seated quarters and halves, with nice original toning, are way too cheap. I am also a fan.
The number of dealers of high grade early bust and gem seated material certainly outnumber their equivalent collectors.
Time for a paid announcement:
i was just about to send you a bottle of jewel luster for your collection....but then i saw this
>>>>>I think I mentioned in #5 that all other rare dates in MS 66 or better will do well,i.e. outperform the general increases in the market>>>
which was an answer to jay and his saints....but then again with so many COMMEMS....let me say it again...so many COMMEMS with total mintages of a meager 2000 to 8000 let alone ms examples...i foresee the future as quite bright as per your "catch all" # 5
owning numerous boxes of booker t washingtons and washington carvers in ms 66...... in additon to over half the populations of ms 67 and higher....i am patiently waiting for a few of these 100 million dollar sports figures to evolve in life`s journey to where they have enough ferraris and no coins
.....shaq....are you listening???
monsterman
btw
tdn...your crackin me up :-)...your right again!!!
bear....u b hittin the nail on the head!!
quality + rareity divided by demand....well i have the first 2.....and wait until you see the expose planned for black history month!!!
i talked to david robinson last month and he never knew george carver was on a united states coin.....and he started the george carver academy in san antonio a few years ago!!!..imagine that
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Bruce Scher
>>>I think you are right on target about the evolving of folks with new money...coins is a natural and now fun way to collect and compete>>>> my thoughts exactly....and i can assure you these guys are compeditors...its in their blood and when the body can do it anymore....their checkbook will
>>>and speaking of sports until yesterday I didnt realize you were that Greg Bingham...I think im a little "star struck". ReallyBruce Sher>>>awe shucks...i appreciate the props...a little investment ditty for ya :-)
i have to tell ya this slabing is great isnt it...coins first now cards...i am now out of the shoebox and have increased in value 1000% ..from 50 cents to 5 bucks :-) in the last 2 years!!!
capitalism...ya gota love it
gregg
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
I believe that the future for coin values will be found
in the highest grade, lovely looking, origonal Seated Liberty
and Barber Quarters and Half Dollars. Most mid to advanced collectors
may not be able to collect the really rare dates, but could, with some effort, pick up a
beautiful high condition coin of these two overlooked series. Also inexpensive origonal specimins
of Classic Commems are still underpriced and due for an explosice ramp up cause they be reletively rare
and inexpensive. Also the late date Bust Quarters and Half Dollars in origonal, AU-58 are a sight to behold
and are terribly underpriced at this time. Its time to stop chasing the hotsy totsy coins and start to seriously
look at the classic rare coins, that have been laggards for the past 3-5 years.
Camelot
The bigger they are, the harder they hit....
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
Meanwhile Gregg, you ALWAYS ducked my Steelers questions in my emails!!!
JB
>>>>Meanwhile Gregg, you ALWAYS ducked my Steelers questions in my emails!!!
sorry jb..ask away..i wasnt aware
gregg
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
PCGS always said that Booker T Washington was a man of peace.
Peace Brother!
I purchased several as type coins many years ago. they have continued to escelate in price every year !!
In addition, my personal collecting preference is to collect modern coins as a series, and collect the key coins from all other series as type.
This approach has worked well for me. I have realized a profit ( sometimes substantial ) EVERYTIME that I sold a coin !!!!!
Thanks CoinDog! I'll sit comfortably with a 1909, 1911 ms66 or a 1931 ms66 Saint and not lose sleep!
i owned this coin went it was a pop 1 coin...with 2 in the grade under it.....
traded it for a 1893-s in 64.....
oh those were the days!!
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
roadrunner
i can assure you that several steelers ..particularly offensive linemen...used steriods....but jack`s a$$ was so skinny....that he obviuosly was not one of them'
monsterman
oh btw....rr.....not 30 to 50 lbs....what they have today is 2 different types of linebacker......one at 250 for the run and one at 215 for the pass....back in my day it as ...get around 235 and do both the run and the pass
todays lighter backer at 215 is just a converted strong safety if you think about it!!....just tuffer than the normal strong safety
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Lambert did have one boney ass, but I saw him knock snot bubbles out of many 240 lb. offensive players! He had "the attack".!! Sometimes just "nasty" does work. Look Pat Fischer...a 5'9" 170 pound horsefly...and he killed people!!!
<< <i>The bigger they are, the harder they hit.... >>
....speed is what hurts. And if they're really big, and really fast......God help ya!
On topic....I'm salting away ultra rare British. Maybe some MLB guys pulling that $2.6M average will take a liking to the other side of the pond in 15-20 years.
JB, at least those Saints will always be worth melt.