Who was the "smartest" dealer in the mid 1990's in predicting the current coin market? Hi

oreville

I observed all of the dealers back in the 1990's.

Jay Parrino had the most incredible inventory in the mid 1990's. He had the most outlandish predictions in the mid 1990's. Everyone laughed at him.

It seems that nearly all of his predictions came true.

He was the "smartest."

In my opinion, he still is. He has an uncanny understanding of how this coin market works. I have yet to meet anyone that has quite his complete insight.

Flame away!!!!!

Boom

Not too many flame throwers at 3 o'clock in the morning, Oreville!

clackamas

<< <i>Not too many flame throwers at 3 o'clock in the morning, Oreville! >>



It is only 1 am on the west coast.

Smitty79

You'll have to wait for the morning crowd, us nocturnal folks is a peaceful bunch.

oreville

Hey, it is past 5 am where I am at right now. At a client in Canada.

PutTogether

What were his predictions?

wam98

Good Morning

oreville

The mania towards high grade coins and condition rarities. He predicted the onset of the registry set collecting although he did not call it that.

He believed very much in "famous coins."

coinlieutenant

Only 1130 in Hawaii!!

Boom

<< <i>Hey, it is past 5 am where I am at right now. At a client in Canada >>



Ohhhh, is that why you don't anwer your email? This Warrior has had about enough for one day. There will be battles to be fought again later today. Peace all....and Good Night....you too Smitty!

Last one out, please turn out the lights!

cladking

I'm not one to say it's different this time but there are some major changes
which could keep this trend in place permenently or at the very least make it
a niche in the hobby permanently. The trend toward collecting the best was
growing even before the internet and the start of third party grading. While
it may well be just another bubble it will leave behind much more than previous
bubbles if so. It will leave many coins recognized as the finest or among the
finest, it will leave the registries and it will leave some interest in a wider array
of coins.

This is not to say I believe that high grade coins are just the current fad in the
hobby and will collapse without warning. Since this "fad" strikes at the very
core of why people collect, this time it's different.

Those wanting to get into high grade coins would be well advised to tread cau-
tiously and remember only a generation ago even the old rarities had very little
price spread from typical to superb and very few desired to pay up for even the
choicest coins. If one studies and looks at coins while doing a little buying and
selling he may protect himself from even the most subtle effects of mass behavior.

Collecting what you enjoy rather than what's hot is even more effective.

Longacre

What were his predicitons?

oreville

His predictions?

I have to pull out the old article with the Rosen Advisory magazine in which he put his predictions right on the line back in 1996. He was very big on key date coins and condition rarities.

They were real head turners back then.

One of his favorite coins back then was the Brasher with stamping on the breast.

He owned JHF's 1894-S dime back then. He owned TDN's 1885 Trade Dollar back then. He owned the 1927-D $20 Saint back then. He owned the 1913 nickel back then. He owned almost everything with his backers at the same time.

I do not recall any dealer ever having so much inventory of different coins at any one time in the past 50 years.

His prices were very high at the time. But he had the stuff! he knew what his stuff was going to be worth.

Heck, he even owned half of the 1933 $20 Saint before the Feds tried to pull the goods on him. Who ended up being right on that score?

He was the closest to pulling off an "Eliasberg" as any dealer I had ever seen in the past 50 years.

D

TDN as in TradeDollarNut? I didn't know he had an 1885 T$ if that's the case .

-Daniel

XpipedreamR

He's only got one?

CarlWohlforth

I communicated with Jay before the run up in gold in 2002. He suggested buying common gold coins. I wonder what he is thinking these days?

pharmer

<< <i>What were his predictions? >>



Haven't you been paying attention?

With specifics like that, we will all be rich.

ER

Who laughed at him?

tradedollarnut

Ahhh - those were the days. When else could you look at an inventory full of great coins [priced 2-3 times their purchase price] and wonder if you should negotiate him down to 100% profit or wait until it went into auction and buy it at market value!

Tale of two trade dollars ... one each route:

1885: purchased by Jay at Eliasberg for a bit over $900k. Advertised at $2M+ for several years. Made several offers in the $1.1-1.25M range and finally bought it at $1.5M the day of the Childs 1804 sale.

1884: upgraded [from NGC64] and crossed by Jay. Advertised for several years in the $425-450k range. Finally placed into auction where it was purchased at around $260k. Traded in when I bought the Eliasberg 1884 ... fulfilling a promise I made to myself to reunite the pair!

Monstavet

I had no idea the 1885 was so much bigger than the 1884.

MrEureka

I had no idea the 1885 was so much bigger than the 1884.

Yes. It's twice as big. That's why they were only able to make half as many coins, of course.

Monstavet

and thus the $1mil versus $1/2 mil. price....you got twice as much coin TDN!

roadrunner

I was one of those (in private of course) who felt Parrino was off his rocker at first. He was trying to corner the market on key dates and major rarities and I thought it was a joke. But when he started playing of the box of "20" idea it made more sense. Parrino certainly had it right early on.

roadrunner

michael

where is jay now?

has he made his millions in coins? and retired?

michael

jay was absolutely correct in his accessment of the future coin market predictions back in 1995

if only i would have........................................

oreville

Jay is still around, he likes currency and rare vintage photos even more than coins. He is doing very well. He is a value driven person.

He does not see the coins having quite the value they did 5-10 years ago.

oreville

This thread is three years old.

ttt

jdimmick

Not only was Jay buying all the extrmeme rarities and chasing the top end, but he was buying every key date in sight on e-bay. (the PCGS ones ). This was back when I started to accumulate and look for a few of the key dates myself. I would be bidding and placing aggresive bids (or at least i thought so) on several dates, and blam JP the mint would come in at the last minute with super strong bids and blow every body away. There were many times he just blew away me and the underbidders on 77 Indians, 22 No d's 16d dimes SLQ, barber keys, etc. Held them a few years, then sold off a few years later for ungodly profits!

timcoin

I don't think much has changed. Investors with heavy pockets should be trying to do the same thing today. That 1944-S Steel Cent posted in a previous post would be a coin that fits the bill. Wish I had deep enough pockets.