<<Rare moderns have a far lower chance of appearing in quantity than rare classics though, obviously, the probability of either is low. >>
Huh? Check the pops and you'll see the numbers already contradict what you're saying here across the board with moderns. Please do your analysis a bit more thoroughly before correcting. How many 1838-C $5's do you see being hawked on QVC these days, compared to gem, flawless MS-69 Sacagawea Dollars?? Or the full run of modern proof sets?? Or a full run of modern mint sets?? Or the MS-70 US Silver Eagles?? Or MS-70 Gold Eagles? Or.... I could go on and on...
<< <i><<Rare moderns have a far lower chance of appearing in quantity than rare classics though, obviously, the probability of either is low. >>
Huh? Check the pops and you'll see the numbers already contradict what you're saying here across the board with moderns. Please do your analysis a bit more thoroughly before correcting. How many 1838-C $5's do you see being hawked on QVC these days, compared to gem, flawless MS-69 Sacagawea Dollars?? Or the full run of modern proof sets?? Or a full run of modern mint sets?? Or the MS-70 US Silver Eagles?? Or MS-70 Gold Eagles? Or.... I could go on and on...
thanks >>
Runs of modern proof and mint sets are not rare and won't be for the foreseeable futue. This is also true of many high grade mint and proof coins. It is not true for all of them. There are numerous rare and unique moderns and this will never change. Many moderns are rare in high grade and this, too, will not change. Just because the pops on a late date PR-69 has exploded in the last year does not many every modern coin is more available than it was. Just because a lot of gold was lifted from the seafloor does not mean that '38-CC $5's are suddenly common.
And as far as the mint and proof sets are concerned; just because they were made by the millions does not mean they still exist by the millions or that they'll always be common as blue in the sky. These have been destroyed for generations and demand continues to grow.
Can anyone name a dealer (not a registry set collector) paying stong prices for certified post-1970 U.S. coins in the finest or next-to-finest grades slabbed by PCGS or NGC?
"Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity" - Hanlon's Razor
Actually I can. Todd Abbey of Cameo Coin bought my last 71 PR69 Dcam Kennedy. R & I chatted with me about a coin, Wondercoin here on the boards is usually a good buyer, etc, etc, etc.
edited to add - geez, I forgot MNM coin.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Can anyone name a dealer (not a registry set collector) paying stong prices for certified post-1970 U.S. coins in the finest or next-to-finest grades slabbed by PCGS or NGC? >>
For post 1970 coins "next to finest" usually has very little value so not only do dealers not buy them, collectors don't pay much either. As for dealers who pay strong money for finest, or pop top examples, wondercoin is one that comes to mind. I'm sure there are others.
Edit: Damn, Don, for an old guy you have fast fingers!
Super fun thread...I have so many comments to respond to here there's no way I'll get to them all.
Maybe one per post to help bump up my post count (because my post count is super-important to me, just like my ranking in all those modern sets I have in the registry).
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
<< <i>Can anyone name a dealer (not a registry set collector) paying stong prices for certified post-1970 U.S. coins in the finest or next-to-finest grades slabbed by PCGS or NGC? >>
If an undergrade that fits this scenario sells on eBay for prices that usually range from $15-$25 with occasional sales as high as $40; what is a strong price? If $10-$15 is a strong price, then there are a number of dealers who pay strong money...the dealers selling on eBay aren't ALL "making" the coins they are selling. If you think $30 is strong money because the occasional piece sells for $40...well any dealer who's buying at $30 in this case better find a new occupation fast. This applies to any coin; not just moderns.
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
<< <i>Rare moderns have a far lower chance of appearing in quantity than rare classics though, obviously, the probability of either is low >>
I concur. Sounds illogical but it isn't. CK even knows of a modern rarity or two that I've been trying to get my grubby paws on...one in particular comes to mind that I can't even find an example of in any grade. I don't mean I can't find one for sale...I can't even track down one that isn't for sale. I can't even find a specialist in the series (dealer or collector) who has EVER seen one.
I can name some classic rarities that are that elusive...can you?
<< <i>Huh? Check the pops and you'll see the numbers already contradict what you're saying here across the board with moderns. Please do your analysis a bit more thoroughly before correcting. >>
A very general statement...your use of the phrase "across the board" isn't accurate in my opinion. I would agree that this is happening with many modern issues. The flip side of this is that this is not happening to modern rarities AT ALL...maybe for one or two isolated issues but for hundreds of other modern rarities the demand far outstrips the supply and the likelihood that the population figures for these coins will ever "explode", "spiral upwards", or "rise sharply" is next to nil.
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
<< <i>Exactly the reason why I keep the focus on the rare-date gold... high numbers of common-date modern coins floating around. Not to mention all the thousands in mint and proof sets, just waiting to be found, cracked out and submitted. Any part of that market could literally flood overnight. >>
A newly discovered modern rarity has recently come to light. This coin has a number of attributes that make me think will cause it to become very popular very quickly. Thousands of examples of this coin in high grade are "floating around" waiting to be discovered.
In spite of the fact that a great number of these coins are just waiting to be found; I doubt there will ever be a "flood" of them...my guess is that prices on this coin will start out healthy and will increase from initial levels over time.
Without detailing the logic behind your reasoning you just assert that your view is "correct". I could lay out a great number of FACTS that support my position, but I've worked my rear end off to know what I know about the dynamics of modern issues and the modern market, I think the knowledge I have of this market is very valuable, and I'm not about to give all that information away for free. Plus you're going toe-to-toe with CK, who's probably forgotten more about modern coins than I'll ever know.
When members of this board that are specialists in Seated coinage make comments that I don't agree with, I don't just step up and say "Its obvious that you're wrong" without providing any reasons behind my position. I do some research, re-evalute my position based on said research, and if I still feel the same way, I provide reasons why I feel as I do and welcome further input, rebuttals, etc. Of course doing things that way makes the thread sink off the front page like a rock tied to an anvil.
The mere claim that "making" these coins is easy doesn't make it a fact...it is very difficult to "make" these coins; trust me, if it was easy I wouldn't be buying them already certified.
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
<< <i>as per the above what is the buy back from the original seller? >>
Can't answer the direct question, but as for the indirect question...I believe that there are a number of dealers in modern issues who have buyback and exchange policies that compare favorably to dealer in other market segments. Most of these dealers are not the flashy, high-profile types that many people think of as modern dealers.
Volatility and series-wide price adjustments are big factors here, of course, but on the other hand does anyone expect the traditional dealers out there to give a 90% buyback on that nice Gem Walker short set that they assembled for their customer about a year ago?
I do understand where you are coming from with the question, but I don't think things are as bad OVERALL in the modern market as they are perceived to be, and I think that similar situations in various segments of the traditional market are largely ignored.
Moderns are just like classics...if you learn about what you are collecting and then put in the time and effort to build a quality collection you'll probably do just fine when it comes time to sell.
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
<< <i>I think that state quarters are the wheaties of this current generation. >>
I concur...to an extent.
I like to say that 1934-1958 Lincoln Cents in PCGS MS65RD and MS66RD holders are the Whitman coin boards of the future.
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
I could lay out a great number of FACTS that support my position, but I've worked my rear end off to know what I know about the dynamics of modern issues and the modern market,
Rella, thats a point well taken. That information doesn't come from the pop reports, or printed references.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Oh please! How many states quarter collectors are going to be able to collect 10K and up modern rarities >>
How many kids used to pull Lincolns out of pocket change and plug them into coin boards? Did any of those kids ever become moderately wealthy coin collectors?
What, in your opinion, is behind the influx of new and returning collectors to the market over the last five years?
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
<< <i>I do find it interesting that the regular defenders of the modern coins are the ones who search raw coins and "make" them, not buy them already holdered. We have not, to my knowledge, heard from the group who has purchased one of these coins: >>
Only those four exact coins? So none of the high priced moderns that I buy count...what am I, chopped liver?
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
Have found that the prices of memorial cent, at thier top grade of dates that have not exploded are way up. Have sold 8 different dates at new highs. Highest I have recieved and highest recorded sale i can find.
What about that 63-d ms66 Lincoln. I will gladly pay atleast 350.00 for this coin. Any ms67 1960 to 1970 with a pop of 7 or less, At least 1,500.00 . Have been recieving many want list with lincoln's from 1955 to 2003 all wanting top grades. And willing to pay strong prices.
by the way I have a nice ms67 1965 Lincoln listed on e-bay.
<<Can we get the paramedics in here to clean of the modern basher bodies RELLA has left laying around?>>
Didn't get bashed too bad... just had to go to sleep! Rella makes a good point, to an extent. Given the offered comments... something to ponder - How many 38-C $5's have you heard of in MS-69 DCAM? How many do you think will EVER be known?
"I'm glad I bought Microsoft stock a few years ago and was smart enough not to buy any 1995 w SAEs."
Proofquarter: I bought Microsoft stock a few years ago as well, but, I also bought Worldcom around the same time (most analysts as I recall had it as a buy and a must own stock as part of a balanced portfolio, which I tried to build). Of course, it went to basically -0-.
Meanwhile, I did buy a number of 1995 SAE's around the same time as well. They have nearly doubled over the past 4 years or so, actually significantly outperforming my Microsoft stock over the same time period. And, of course, 1995 SAE's have been one of the standout modern coins over the past 10 years I believe.
Wondercoin
P.S. Nice posts RELLA
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Comments
<<Rare moderns have a far lower chance of appearing in quantity than rare classics though, obviously, the probability of either is low. >>
Huh? Check the pops and you'll see the numbers already contradict what you're saying here across the board with moderns. Please do your analysis a bit more thoroughly before correcting. How many 1838-C $5's do you see being hawked on QVC these days, compared to gem, flawless MS-69 Sacagawea Dollars?? Or the full run of modern proof sets?? Or a full run of modern mint sets?? Or the MS-70 US Silver Eagles?? Or MS-70 Gold Eagles? Or.... I could go on and on...
thanks
<< <i><<Rare moderns have a far lower chance of appearing in quantity than rare classics though, obviously, the probability of either is low. >>
Huh? Check the pops and you'll see the numbers already contradict what you're saying here across the board with moderns. >>
Please go back and read the thread again, paying particular attention to the posts by DHeath.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i><<Rare moderns have a far lower chance of appearing in quantity than rare classics though, obviously, the probability of either is low. >>
Huh? Check the pops and you'll see the numbers already contradict what you're saying here across the board with moderns. Please do your analysis a bit more thoroughly before correcting. How many 1838-C $5's do you see being hawked on QVC these days, compared to gem, flawless MS-69 Sacagawea Dollars?? Or the full run of modern proof sets?? Or a full run of modern mint sets?? Or the MS-70 US Silver Eagles?? Or MS-70 Gold Eagles? Or.... I could go on and on...
thanks >>
Runs of modern proof and mint sets are not rare and won't be for the foreseeable futue.
This is also true of many high grade mint and proof coins. It is not true for all of them.
There are numerous rare and unique moderns and this will never change. Many moderns
are rare in high grade and this, too, will not change. Just because the pops on a late date
PR-69 has exploded in the last year does not many every modern coin is more available
than it was. Just because a lot of gold was lifted from the seafloor does not mean that '38-CC
$5's are suddenly common.
And as far as the mint and proof sets are concerned; just because they were made by the
millions does not mean they still exist by the millions or that they'll always be common as
blue in the sky. These have been destroyed for generations and demand continues to grow.
edited to add - geez, I forgot MNM coin.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Can anyone name a dealer (not a registry set collector) paying stong prices for certified post-1970 U.S. coins in the finest or next-to-finest grades slabbed by PCGS or NGC? >>
For post 1970 coins "next to finest" usually has very little value so not only do dealers not buy them, collectors don't pay much either. As for dealers who pay strong money for finest, or pop top examples, wondercoin is one that comes to mind. I'm sure there are others.
Edit: Damn, Don, for an old guy you have fast fingers!
Russ, NCNE
Maybe one per post to help bump up my post count (because my post count is super-important to me, just like my ranking in all those modern sets I have in the registry).
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
<< <i>Can anyone name a dealer (not a registry set collector) paying stong prices for certified post-1970 U.S. coins in the finest or next-to-finest grades slabbed by PCGS or NGC? >>
If an undergrade that fits this scenario sells on eBay for prices that usually range from $15-$25 with occasional sales as high as $40; what is a strong price? If $10-$15 is a strong price, then there are a number of dealers who pay strong money...the dealers selling on eBay aren't ALL "making" the coins they are selling. If you think $30 is strong money because the occasional piece sells for $40...well any dealer who's buying at $30 in this case better find a new occupation fast. This applies to any coin; not just moderns.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
<< <i>Rare moderns have a far lower chance of appearing in quantity than rare classics though, obviously, the probability of either is low >>
I concur. Sounds illogical but it isn't. CK even knows of a modern rarity or two that I've been trying to get my grubby paws on...one in particular comes to mind that I can't even find an example of in any grade. I don't mean I can't find one for sale...I can't even track down one that isn't for sale. I can't even find a specialist in the series (dealer or collector) who has EVER seen one.
I can name some classic rarities that are that elusive...can you?
<< <i>Huh? Check the pops and you'll see the numbers already contradict what you're saying here across the board with moderns. Please do your analysis a bit more thoroughly before correcting. >>
A very general statement...your use of the phrase "across the board" isn't accurate in my opinion. I would agree that this is happening with many modern issues. The flip side of this is that this is not happening to modern rarities AT ALL...maybe for one or two isolated issues but for hundreds of other modern rarities the demand far outstrips the supply and the likelihood that the population figures for these coins will ever "explode", "spiral upwards", or "rise sharply" is next to nil.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
<< <i>Exactly the reason why I keep the focus on the rare-date gold... high numbers of common-date modern coins floating around. Not to mention all the thousands in mint and proof sets, just waiting to be found, cracked out and submitted. Any part of that market could literally flood overnight. >>
A newly discovered modern rarity has recently come to light. This coin has a number of attributes that make me think will cause it to become very popular very quickly. Thousands of examples of this coin in high grade are "floating around" waiting to be discovered.
In spite of the fact that a great number of these coins are just waiting to be found; I doubt there will ever be a "flood" of them...my guess is that prices on this coin will start out healthy and will increase from initial levels over time.
Without detailing the logic behind your reasoning you just assert that your view is "correct". I could lay out a great number of FACTS that support my position, but I've worked my rear end off to know what I know about the dynamics of modern issues and the modern market, I think the knowledge I have of this market is very valuable, and I'm not about to give all that information away for free. Plus you're going toe-to-toe with CK, who's probably forgotten more about modern coins than I'll ever know.
When members of this board that are specialists in Seated coinage make comments that I don't agree with, I don't just step up and say "Its obvious that you're wrong" without providing any reasons behind my position. I do some research, re-evalute my position based on said research, and if I still feel the same way, I provide reasons why I feel as I do and welcome further input, rebuttals, etc. Of course doing things that way makes the thread sink off the front page like a rock tied to an anvil.
The mere claim that "making" these coins is easy doesn't make it a fact...it is very difficult to "make" these coins; trust me, if it was easy I wouldn't be buying them already certified.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
<< <i>as per the above what is the buy back from the original seller? >>
Can't answer the direct question, but as for the indirect question...I believe that there are a number of dealers in modern issues who have buyback and exchange policies that compare favorably to dealer in other market segments. Most of these dealers are not the flashy, high-profile types that many people think of as modern dealers.
Volatility and series-wide price adjustments are big factors here, of course, but on the other hand does anyone expect the traditional dealers out there to give a 90% buyback on that nice Gem Walker short set that they assembled for their customer about a year ago?
I do understand where you are coming from with the question, but I don't think things are as bad OVERALL in the modern market as they are perceived to be, and I think that similar situations in various segments of the traditional market are largely ignored.
Moderns are just like classics...if you learn about what you are collecting and then put in the time and effort to build a quality collection you'll probably do just fine when it comes time to sell.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
<< <i>I think that state quarters are the wheaties of this current generation. >>
I concur...to an extent.
I like to say that 1934-1958 Lincoln Cents in PCGS MS65RD and MS66RD holders are the Whitman coin boards of the future.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
Rella, thats a point well taken. That information doesn't come from the pop reports, or printed references.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Oh please! How many states quarter collectors are going to be able to collect 10K and up modern rarities >>
How many kids used to pull Lincolns out of pocket change and plug them into coin boards? Did any of those kids ever become moderately wealthy coin collectors?
What, in your opinion, is behind the influx of new and returning collectors to the market over the last five years?
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
<< <i>I do find it interesting that the regular defenders of the modern coins are the ones who search raw coins and "make" them, not buy them already holdered. We have not, to my knowledge, heard from the group who has purchased one of these coins: >>
Only those four exact coins? So none of the high priced moderns that I buy count...what am I, chopped liver?
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
What about that 63-d ms66 Lincoln. I will gladly pay atleast 350.00 for this coin. Any ms67 1960 to 1970 with a pop of 7 or less, At least 1,500.00 . Have been recieving many want list with lincoln's from 1955 to 2003 all wanting top grades. And willing to pay strong prices.
by the way I have a nice ms67 1965 Lincoln listed on e-bay.
Chris
Oh, goodie! Now, we have a so-called dealer (might be a good entry for Oreville's contest) offering to sell pennies in my thread.
Russ, NCNE
I am still standing--until Keets comes along and demolishes me, that is.
I'm glad I bought Microsoft stock a few years ago and was smart enough not to buy any 1995 w SAEs.
Didn't get bashed too bad... just had to go to sleep! Rella makes a good point, to an extent. Given the offered comments... something to ponder - How many 38-C $5's have you heard of in MS-69 DCAM? How many do you think will EVER be known?
Proofquarter: I bought Microsoft stock a few years ago as well, but, I also bought Worldcom around the same time (most analysts as I recall had it as a buy and a must own stock as part of a balanced portfolio, which I tried to build). Of course, it went to basically -0-.
Meanwhile, I did buy a number of 1995 SAE's around the same time as well. They have nearly doubled over the past 4 years or so, actually significantly outperforming my Microsoft stock over the same time period. And, of course, 1995 SAE's have been one of the standout modern coins over the past 10 years I believe.
Wondercoin
P.S. Nice posts RELLA