How much vintage stuff has been graded?

MarkLee

Now that the various grading services have been around for a number of years, does anybody have any feel for how much of the existing vintage stuff out there has been graded and is in a holder? For instance what percentage of all 1952 Topps cards are now in a holder whether it be PSA, BGS or anybody else's slab? Would you guess 1%? 5%? Much less than that? How about a much sought after card like a the 1952 Mantle? Of all the 52 Mantle cards out there, how many have been slabbed? And how high do you see this number going? Do you suppose that 20 years from now it will be tougher to find raw cards than graded for 1950's issues?

Mark

CollectorChris

Less than 0.01%. In other words, for every graded vintage card, there are probably 10,000 ungraded ones. I'm not talking about your T206 Wagners but 1948-1972 Topps and Bowman regular sets (excluding single prints, shorter run high series, etc).

dallasactuary

I think the answer is "it depends". I think the < 0.01% estimate is correct if you're including low and mid-grade cards, and maybe even higher grade commons. But if you mean what % of the cards that are worth getting graded are already graded, I imagine the answer is much higher.

For near mint or better Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Clemente, etc. rookies, which are almost by definition in the hands of serious collectors or they wouldn't still be near mint or better, any number from 10% to 50% wouldn't surprise me.

I would guess that finding a raw 1948-1972 card worth thousands of dollars will be next to impossible in the not-too-distant future.



The opinions expressed here are those of the poster and do not necessarily reflect those of any other living human being.

goudeygold

I'm going to differ here. I pretty much collect one main set. 1938 Goudey. Over the past year I have found very few mid-high quality raw cards. I have gotten two 7s submitted myself, and a single 6. One of the 7s is a POP 2 with only 2 8s, no 9s. In the 38 set there are 16 PSA 9s and I have yet to see one. None on the registry, none have come up for auction in the last year (a single SGC common as a "9" sold for $1600 last year), or on any databases i've seen for prior auctions. In the entire 48 card set, the ENTIRE set POP is only 1800. I would say atleast 90% of the raw cards on ebay are grades 1-4 (but these aren't very common either). I also attend all the major shows that come through Chicago without much success in locating decent raw cards. The only dealer that has more than half a dozen in any grade would be levi @ 707sportscards. At the last show 4 dealers out of probably 400 had even a single 38 Goudey.

Now this set does seem to be tougher than most, however I would venture to say it is probable that a majority of all pre-war issues at the PSA 5 level or higher have been graded already. If this is not the case, then you show me ANY dealer that has high quality pre-war in any decent quantity. Also PLEASE forward me any links to any dealer that has ANY mid-high quality raw 38 Goudeys. I would be very appreciative.

I agree that post 48 is plentiful, and once you get to the late 50s and newer it is abundant. Nothing like modern of course, but the true 10s will always be scarce pre-72.

GG

dontippet

Are we factoring in cards that are not graded because the owner doesn't want them to be graded?

Don

goudeygold

Honestly, I really have not seen any substantial quantity of quality pre-war raw in some time. Are you suggesting there are many collectors of pre-war that refuse to have cards graded? I would think they would have to hoard them, since they most likely would be slabbed should they enter the marketplace.

GG

Griffins

There are a lot of collectors that have substantial collections of raw cards, with no need or desire to ever have them graded. Last year I was at one guys house and he pulled out book after book of pristine E cards- complete sets of E90-1's, E92's, E94's, all the way up Burdicks list. I doubt anything would've graded below a 7. He's been collecting and upgrading since the early 70's, and said many of his friends from back then had similar collections with no graded cards.
Remember, we're just an insignificant 1% here.

softparade

I agree with Griffins. IMO there would have to be much more ungraded quality raw out there than graded. I know of 1 person who has binder after binder of this stuff and just laughs at the notion of grading his cards. Yes, we are defiantley still a big minority here.

bowdowntome

I agree that there are probably many, many private collections of ungraded cards still around. While I don't collect pre-war cards, I have been collecting ungraded cards for 35 years. I have never really been sold on the idea of grading outside of profit, and since I'm in it strictly for fun, most of my stuff will remain ungraded. I have been showing signs of weakening though, as I just paid for my first gold membership and submitted my first cards today. However, most of the cards I will submit will be for my own collection and not for the open market. Just a couple years ago I sold the baseball portion of my collection to a local dealer, all ungraded including complate sets of 1960-2 and 1964-79 Topps, plus many 50's cards. I'm willing to bet that alot of those ended up in graded card holders.

How accurate are the population reports anyway? What percentage of the PSA population report do you think is made up of cards that have been re-submitted, creating false populations?

easttexascardsandgames

I also agree there are probaly small hoards of nearly every set ever produced somewhere ungraded, I would also venture to guess that there is probaly another 15 to 20 T-206 Wagner's that have not been accounted for.

One thing you have to remember is that many collectors do not like graded cards, they do not like the idea of someone else telling them what condition a card is in. I would guesstimate that probaly half if not more collectors do not like grading. In my area, to my knowledge I am the only person who goes to shows looking for cards to grade. Tables at these shows that have lots of graded cards are passed by and the ones who have a mix of raw cards get the most traffic(could be people looking for cards for slabbing) however when I talk to some of the bigger collectors here theyrefer to grading as a very bad thing for the industry. Look at Ebay aren't the majority of the cards sold raw??

I know one woman here locally who has many sets of vintage cards that were put together from packs. Her and her late hubby owned a drug store from 1946-1969 she refuses to sell them however due to their sentimental value. How many such collections still exist?

smallstocks

I have to agree that the % of graded is low. I have nearly completed the 1955 Topps set raw in what I believe would grade mostly PSA 7 or better, yet I have no desire to get these cards graded as it is my personal pride and joy and not for resale. Just my two cents.

Mike

Buccaneer

<< <i>I have to agree that the % of graded is low. I have nearly completed the 1955 Topps set raw in what I believe would grade mostly PSA 7 or better, yet I have no desire to get these cards graded as it is my personal pride and joy and not for resale. Just my two cents.

Mike >>



My hero.

Since I focus on 1950s and 1960s cards, I would agree that taking into consideration all conditions, very few have been graded. But considering better conditions, esp. star cards, the percentage is probably much higher.

All one has to do is to compare the prices between Becketts (raw) and SMR (PSA) on commons and star cards. The price is about the same for star cards but the difference is substantial for commons.

dude

Across the whole vintage spectrum - I agree that a very small percentage has been graded. But on the other hand the vast majority of the pre-'70 cards still in existence are VG or worse, so those cards really don't seem to matter when it comes to grading - except for some star cards. But, if you talk about pre-WWII cards that are NM or better and '50's cards that are NM-MT or better, and '60's cards that are MINT or better, the percentages are somewhat significant - probably 5-15% of cards in those conditions have been graded and perhaps as high as 25-35% for star cards from those same eras. Nobody truly knows what's out there, but the high grade stuff certainly seems to be showing up less and less and the warehouse finds certainly seem to be a thing of the past.

baseballcardsonly

<< <i>I have to agree that the % of graded is low. I have nearly completed the 1955 Topps set raw in what I believe would grade mostly PSA 7 or better, yet I have no desire to get these cards graded as it is my personal pride and joy and not for resale. Just my two cents.

Mike >>



I also agree....My collection is for my eyes only. I just can't understand collectors paying someone to give them their opinion. I would much rather use the money to buy more cards than spend it on grading. Plus, am I the only person who is scared to death to mail my cards to someone and hope everything goes correctly? If i lived in a large city where PSA/SGC/GAI would come to shows and slab on site, then MAYBE I would spend money on GRADING, but to spend money on grading and postage back and forth is way over the top. I also can't understand the LOVE of the PSA POP report and SMR guide. I search Ebay several times daily and I just don't see that many cards going for SMR value. To me SMR value is a market ploy by the 3rd party grading companies to justify their fees, when in most cases, people will not get a return on those fees. Since we are on "how much stuff has been graded", how can anybody take the POP report seriously? We all agree that the amount of graded stuff out there is very low (less than 10%), so why would I pay hundreds if not thousands on a low POP card when all of those cards are not graded? I just laugh a collector paying $200 for a common player with a low POP report, when in fact, most collector don't care if they have that card, much less a graded version of it. The only good I can see with graded cards is in most cases you are guaranteed its authentic and unaltered. If is wasn't for scumbags trimming cards, I wouldn't think twice about purchasing another one.

Sorry about highjacking this thread...

Mark

bowdowntome

An example - There are no Bell Brand Rams card showing on the population reports, yet I know of at least 6-7 collectors of these myself. It's just 1 example of how small the graded card population is compared to non-graded.

A more interesting question to me would be:

What percentage of the cards that have been graded were graded by dealers or individuals with the intention of resale, as opposed to the average collector with no intention of reselling?

I would say the price of grading for the average person is, well, too high, to make it feasible to 1)Join the PSA club ($99 min), 2)Get cards graded, 3)Pay expensive shipping back and forth. It just doesn't make sense, unless you are planning on selling a collection, or if you just want to get some key cards graded and keep them protected, which is about the only reason I joined and will use the service for. Well, that and the set registry for my BB Rams cards, but that is the exception in my case.

koby

<< <i>Last year I was at one guys house and he pulled out book after book of pristine E cards- complete sets of E90-1's, E92's, E94's, all the way up Burdicks list. I doubt anything would've graded below a 7. He's been collecting and upgrading since the early 70's, and said many of his friends from back then had similar collections with no graded cards.
>>



Griffens, That is amazing! Is that Marz you are talking about?

easttexascardsandgames

I think that is the main issue here to the average collector grading is simply to high. There are also purists who feel slabbing a card is in a way ruining the card.

Allen

I would say that there are still many many HUGE finds left undiscovered. Remeber paoutdoorsman- despite the fact that everyone was split on the existance of the items they could be out there. Do you ever wonder what if a really huge find of unopened or untouched vintage came about- Would it crash the market? Just a thought. But to answer the real question I would say it depends for sure. I would think at the highest maybe 15% of any given card.

SDavid

Another question is - what percentage of high grade star cards make in onto the market without getting slabbed? I'd bet that percentage is much, much lower than the figures people have given. A lot of "anti-grading" people have a change of heart when it comes time to sell.

My dad has a closet full of high grade vintage 50's and 60's cards that all came straight from packs he bought as a kid. In the unlikely event that he decides to sell them, you best believe every single one of them will get slabbed first if doing so will increase their value.

Following Bob Brill's buy/sell experiment on beckett.com also gives you an idea of how infrequent it is for the typical dealer to come into contact with high grade vintage collections (or vintage collections period).

goudeygold

Does everyone agree that if you want to maximize value for your cards your better off getting them graded? If i'm looking for a card that is $250+, don't you think that there is a comfort level in having it already graded? I'm not talking about 50s commons. Pre-war stars. My experience is that raw cards are notoriously overgraded by the seller across the entire spectrum. So from the thread it is assumed that there may actually be a premium for raw cards that are probably overgraded?

Maybe i'm focusing on pre-war too much, since the 50-60s stuff is very plentiful and I completely agree that it is not cost effective to grade virtually ANY post 41 common save the 52 topps high numbers. You can easily buy late 50s commons at the PSA 8 level for less than grading.

For dan markel "dude"... Your big time, have you seen any significant collections of 38 Goudey raw in "TRUE" EX or better? Do you feel that the entire POP count of 1800 is indeed a very small fraction of what is out there (VG-EX or better?) If this is the case than I'm shocked, because I can't find crap out there.

So it is your opinon that from what you've seen only 15-25% of all pre-war cards have been graded that are VG-EX or better?

thanks again,

GG

dude

goudeygold -- There was a lot more speculation than "fact" in the numbers I mentioned. I would imagine that 38 Goudeys are tough to find in high grade since there probably wasn't a lot of surplus of that issue since it was manufactured during the height of The Great Depression. For that issue the graded percentage is probably a bit higher, but I'm sure there's still a lot of those cards out there that haven't been graded yet. Wait about 15 years when most of the people who owned those cards as kids start dying off, and their collections start turning up in estate sales or from their kids who have no interest in those cards.

SDavid -- I'm not familiar with Bob Brill's experiment. Please elaborate or show us the link to the article. Thanks.

goudeygold

I'm too impatient to wait 15 years!! Heck, I could be dead! Keep in mind most of these 38s were prob recycled, and we do know it was a very low production issue to begin with. Plus, if they were collected by 10 year olds, they would be pushing 80 now, so in the next 5 years a vast majority should be dead if they aren't already. I honestly don't see much of a supply coming in though. Until i'm happily proven wrong, i'll keep on looking. Thanks for your quick reply Dan.

GG

SDavid

Here's a link to the latest article from the buy/sell experiment. It's in Brill's column that appears in every "hobby newsletter" on beckett.com.

Here's a link to the archived newsletters, but the latest one summarizes all the buying and selling. One thing to point out is he said in the beginning that he would go over his budget for this experiment if a great collection walked in the door. Several times throughout the process he's commented on the difficulty of finding quality vintage collections.

baseballfanatic

Definately less than one percent. Even at "local" card shows (the kinds where you have more inventory than the people setting up), you pass by countless albums, single holders and screw downs of vintage (pre 1960). There was so much stuff out there at one time Topps would have had the EPA hot on thier tail for dumping countless cases and truckloads of 52's alone in the Hudson river, so you can imagine all that survived. Alot of collectors also like keeping a nice uniform collection of toploads. It displays much nicer than a few PSA holders mixed in with toploads. This is the most important point: If you have been collecting for 40+ years, you know what you have and don't need someone who is "taught" how to grade cards on an assembly line to be the "final say" on your collection. Is the submission cost worth the kiss of death PSA7? Even the people on these boards complain of the inconsistancies in grading.

bobbybakeriv

"Is the submission cost worth the kiss of death PSA7?" Nope. I definitely agree with you there. However, the intermittent reinforcement (and I mean intermittent) of the PSA 10 is certainly worth it. That glimmer of hope certainly keeps me in the chase.

Coolidge

<< <i>You can easily buy late 50s commons at the PSA 8 level for less than grading. >>

goudeygold

I did indeed in the last year purchase a couple 1958 topps PSA 8s for $9.95 each. Search ebay, you'll find them.

GG

detroitfan2

Here's something out of today's Detroit paper. How many of THESE do you think are still out there?

lucky dogs

One of the few disadvantages to buying a newly built home I guess.

Coolidge

GG,

Non-qualified 1958 Topps PSA 8's don't go for $9.95 -- not even high population commons. You'd have a hard time finding them for double that amount.

As for searching eBay, I spend more hours a week searching eBay than most people work. In a way, it's my job. The prices you're quoting don't exist.

But if you want to insist that one "can easily buy late 50s commons at the PSA 8 level for less than grading", please show me where. Or better yet, sell some to me.

detroitfan2

Can't speak for 1958 Topps, but here's a 1959 PSA 8 NQ that went for $9.95.

They're not plentiful, but they're out there.

59 Topps PSA 8

goudeygold

I tried to search my past feedback and find a link for you on the PSA 8 (NQ) 58 topps common for $9.95 + shipping. Maybe this was indeed an anomaly, and maybe my wording "easily" was ill stated. I'll keep my eye out the next few days and see if I see any 50s 8s for around $15 from the 50s. I did find a 45 card lot of PSA 8s from 1979 for $3 per card. Buy it now even. But I know, thats modern!

GG

Coolidge

<< <i>Can't speak for 1958 Topps, but here's a 1959 PSA 8 NQ that went for $9.95.

They're not plentiful, but they're out there.

59 Topps PSA 8 >>




detroitfan2,

Grading cost for late 50s commons is $7. Even your example - which is certainly not the norm - is $11.50 delivered (uninsured) or $13 (insured). According to GG, one "can easily buy late 50s commons at the PSA 8 level for less than grading". By "buy", I'll assume shipping charges are included -- meaning that one should easily be able to buy late 50s PSA 8 commons for $6.99 (or less) delivered. That is just not even remotely accurate. In fact, it's ridiculous.

detroitfan2

<<Non-qualified 1958 Topps PSA 8's don't go for $9.95 -- not even high population commons. You'd have a hard time finding them for
<<double that amount.

<<As for searching eBay, I spend more hours a week searching eBay than most people work. In a way, it's my job.
<<The prices you're quoting don't exist.

<<But if you want to insist that one "can easily buy late 50s commons at the PSA 8 level for less than grading",
<< please show me where. Or better yet, sell some to me

You said that the prices being quoted don't exist. You said to show you where if they do exist. With minimal effort on my part, I showed you that they do exist, and I showed you where. Both GG in his latest post and myself admitted that they're rare, but for you to say that someone is "ridiculous" even with the proof is not really necessary. Also, by "grading fees", I'll assume that you're including shipping and insurance charges in both directions, membership fees, and that maybe I only want to grade 20 cards. I don't think I can do that for $7 per card. Maybe once a year with a specials. Maybe.

calleocho

58 and 59 topps might the easiest of all 50's sets.

some PSA 8's can be had near grading costs but its very hard, maybe 1 out of 50 or even more.

and most likely those psa 8's were ugly as hell

that particular card has over 100 psa 8's

on the issue of raw vintage, while its true that some people have some extremetly nice collections outhere, it is quite likely that not all cards are "mint" and most likely those cards are the same that graded collectors cant find.

Low pop cards of vintage sets are hard to find either raw or graded.

Coolidge

detroitfan2,

GG mentioned 58 Topps PSA 8's. You showed an example for a 59 Topps PSA 8. While they both fall into the category of "late 50s PSA 8 commons", 58 Topps PSA 8's and 59 Topps PSA 8's are a whole different ballgame. Still, you can't ever buy any late 50s PSA 8's for less than grading costs, nevermind "easily". It's not even close. And, yes, the prices he quoted do not exist. The "proof" that you presented only helped to prove my point. The best "proof" that you could come up with was nearly double the price of grading after adding in shipping/insurance.

Grading cost for late 50s commons is $7 per card all the time -- minimum 50 cards. It's not a special. Membership costs shouldn't be factored in because the free gradings more than pay for the price of the membership (since you can submit high dollar star cards), not to mention the extra stuff that you get with the membership (SMR, Pop report, etc). I do agree that one should factor in shipping/insurance costs with the grading costs, but you're still only at approximately $7.50 per card in overall grading costs. Where can I easily purchase late 50s PSA 8 commons for less than $7.50 per card delivered? Excluding 1959, one can't even easily purchase late 50s PSA 7 commons for less than $7.50 per card delivered.

My wording ("ridiculous") may have been harsh, and for that I apologize to GG, but it was accurate.

goudeygold

The $7 per card is for bulk submissions of 50 cards minimum. I roughly use the $15 per card for grading costs simply due to shipping there, shipping back, and most submissions are going to run about $12 per card unless your only grading commons OR some grading special. Plus lets not forget the $100/year for membership.

Either way, I stated it was an error on my part to say "easily" as I later stated maybe I had some exception to the norm, however detroit-man had another quick example. Again just simple proof they can be had for essentially the cost of grading fees.

GG

goudeygold

Are you pissed the Lakers are a .500 team or something?

A 58 common and a 59 common are pretty darn close my friend. And I'm sorry but if I can buy a graded 58 common PSA 8 for 13 bucks, then that is damn close to the common mans cost for grading. Again, I'm using standard rates, not bulk rates. Most of us aren't submitting 50 commons at a time.

no hard feelings, but man your wound up!!

GG

Coolidge

<< <i>Are you pissed the Lakers are a .500 team or something? >>



Nah, I'm pissed because I was outbid on the Tawny Peaks auction! (joking)




<< <i>A 58 common and a 59 common are pretty darn close my friend. >>



Actually, they aren't. Generally speaking, 58 commons usually sell for close to double what 59 commons sell for.




<< <i>And I'm sorry but if I can buy a graded 58 common PSA 8 for 13 bucks, then that is damn close to the common mans cost for grading. Again, I'm using standard rates, not bulk rates. Most of us aren't submitting 50 commons at a time. >>



But you can't buy a 58 common PSA 8 for 13 bucks!

As for grading costs, I guess we were both looking at it from different angles. After factoring in the shipping/insurance costs, as well as taking into consideration the bulk discount for 50 cards, I just can't see why anybody would send in less than 50. It seems foolish to me.




<< <i>no hard feelings, but man your wound up!! >>



No hard feelings here either. I'm not wound up; I just enjoy debating because I always win.

koby

Yes you are a good debater.