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Buying Unopened Vintage Boxes or Case

jskirwinjskirwin Posts: 700 ✭✭✭
in Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum
So I'm looking at ungraded vintage raw on Ebay and am interested in items with lines like:

THESE CARDS CAME DIRECTLY FROM A VENDING CASE AND ARE IN PERFECT MINT CONDITION.

And I start wondering...

Could what is the risk in buying a box or vending case of unopened material vs the potential payoff?

Take for example a 1978 Baseball at $525 (link)

36 packs * 14 cards/pack = 504 cards

Say you're very unlucky and get all commons and a bad audience at ebay, selling each for a dime a card. 504*.10 = $50 - Worst case

Then you add in $36 for the wrappers (36 * 1.00) , $15 for the box

--------------
Worst case: $100 - 525=$425 loss


Does anyone know if its possible to breakeven by breaking up a box?




Comments

  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,407 ✭✭✭✭✭
    js
    I have busted vending from 78 and 79 and it's a crapshoot - the centering is all over the place and the corners will be anywhere from a 10 to a 4! Also, there's quite a few diamond cuts.

    Softparade just cracked a 78T wax and will give his impression.

    The quality will be better in wax than vending IMO - you might want to check out BBCKid and BBCExchange also for pricing.

    your friend
    Mike
    Mike
  • CDsNutsCDsNuts Posts: 10,092 ✭
    From my experience, rack and wax give you the best shot if the boxes are clean, followed by cellos and vending. Corners on the older topps cards are too sensitive and the vending boxes don't offer a lot of protection.

    Lee
  • kingraider75kingraider75 Posts: 1,500 ✭✭
    you are going to lose a few cards due to gum damage on wax packs.

    If they boxes were stored in a hot warehouse, up to three cards per pack may have significant gum indents in them.

    Running an Ebay store sure takes a lot more time than a person would think!
  • jskirwinjskirwin Posts: 700 ✭✭✭
    Are all cards inserted and distributed randomly? Using my example above, that means there is a 70% chance of snagging a Murray RC.

    Just for fun I tabulated the SMR of all stars at PSA 8 (is that a good average grade for a box?), ignored grading fees and multiplied the sum by 70% = $360. That's better, but when you start adding in Ebay listing fees, Paypal fees, general RISK of getting shafted by buyers - and worst case scenario still looks pretty grim.

    So are you guys gamblers or just nuts?

    image
  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,407 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>you are going to lose a few cards due to gum damage on wax packs.

    If they boxes were stored in a hot warehouse, up to three cards per pack may have significant gum indents in them. >>


    On the wax, that's a really good point - I believe, if the gum inside the pack does not rattle around when you shake it, you've got heat "fused" gum.

    your friend
    Mike
    Mike
  • CDsNutsCDsNuts Posts: 10,092 ✭
    I got a lot of 8s, six 9s, and one 10 out of my 78 wax box. No Murray's, a Molitor with a crease, and a Molitor with a print mark. I also believe my box was an assortment of packs taken from more than one box so it may not be a good gauge. I would stick with sets that have more than one big card. In those boxes it's usually an all or nothing proposition; either you get the big card or you don't. As kingraider stated, you lose at least 2 card per pack to gum and wax. Your best bet is a sealed rack case which can get pretty pricey, or a case-fresh rack box which you have no oway of knowing has been searched for stars or not. I'm finding that I do well in some boxes, but not in most cases I take a loss. You definitely need a gambler's mentality to give it a shot.

    Also, keep in mind that these guys selling "case fresh" lots of cards have undoubtedly pulled the gradable stars and RCs, and maybe commons to send to PSA.

    Lee
  • IJustLoveCardsIJustLoveCards Posts: 1,345
    thats interesting, when I have spoken to steve (bbcexchange) he has always stated that cello, then vending are the best way to go. In his experiences when pulling cards for grading he has had the best luck with those before wax. I have bought both and the 87 wax i opened had gum stains on all the cards next to the gum, yet I was able to get great pulls from vending.

    I do agree that you may encounter a greater risk of Diamond cuts with the vending but at least every 1 card in each pack wont be ruined.


    just my 2 cents....
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  • BuccaneerBuccaneer Posts: 1,794 ✭✭


    << <i>Are all cards inserted and distributed randomly? Using my example above, that means there is a 70% chance of snagging a Murray RC.

    Just for fun I tabulated the SMR of all stars at PSA 8 (is that a good average grade for a box?), ignored grading fees and multiplied the sum by 70% = $360. That's better, but when you start adding in Ebay listing fees, Paypal fees, general RISK of getting shafted by buyers - and worst case scenario still looks pretty grim.

    So are you guys gamblers or just nuts?

    image >>



    Why would you do that??? Grading fees, esp. starting in that year can substantially add to the price (cost) of a card - more than the other fees combined. Think about it, commons would have to grade out at PSA 9 in order to break even on cost...and that's doubtful on many unopened material.
  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have to say that I am very excited still from the 78 wax box I purchased from the Baseball Card Exchange. After careful scrutiny I came up with 93 cards to submit that are just SWEET SWEET SWEET. I think I got lucky, the centering throughout the box was excellent given how bad 78's can be. NO dinged corners, the box was truly from a case that Steve Hart opened himself. Pulled Molitor (smudge), and Murray OC. I could care less however, since I am working on a 78 PSA graded set I think I will make out in the end with this box.

    And most importantly, I purchased this box NOT CARING ONE BIT about breaking even or anything close to it. I DON'T care. It is just to much fun for the money really. Where else can you blow almost 600 bucks and have a couple of months of fun, and years of reward image I even throw out the wrappers rather than make a buck or two just so that I never open a pack down the road re-sealed with my own damn wrappers

    I will buy another box too, and won't give two **** if I don't break even or lose "just a little" image

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭✭✭
    By the way, Steve has no cello in the 78's. I drool over that 3 box rack case every week image

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,407 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>So are you guys gamblers or just nuts? >>


    js
    I'm a hard-core collector and thus by nature...Nuts.

    For those who collect as a hobby, breaking even is a moot point! What is the break even point for a person whose hobby is golf?

    Stone
    Mike
  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>So are you guys gamblers or just nuts? >>


    js
    I'm a hard-core collector and thus by nature...Nuts.

    For those who collect as a hobby, breaking even is a moot point! What is the break even point for a person whose hobby is golf?

    Stone >>



    oh my Mike,

    QUOTE OF THE YEAR ! image

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

  • KnucklesKnuckles Posts: 2,512 ✭✭✭


    << <i>For those who collect as a hobby, breaking even is a moot point! What is the break even point for a person whose hobby is golf? >>



    When they win enough money off of bets or tournaments to pay for their hobby.. clubs etc..
    image
  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,407 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>For those who collect as a hobby, breaking even is a moot point! What is the break even point for a person whose hobby is golf? >>



    When they win enough money off of bets or tournaments to pay for their hobby.. clubs etc.. >>


    Knuckles
    Very interesting...for the hard-core golf nut, gambling/betting on their game is a manifestation of their highly competitive nature and has little to do with digging up scratch to pay the caddy IMO.

    Stone
    Mike
  • CDsNutsCDsNuts Posts: 10,092 ✭
    One day soft....... One day........... mmmmmmmmmmmmm, 78 toooopppppppssssss raaaaccckkk caaaaaassssseeeee.............. No gumstains, no dinged corners (hopefully), racks with NM Murray and Mollie on top that people overspend for. It's like Wonderland and Disney World all rolled into one. And not that Euro Disney crap, the real one.

    Lee
  • rvcrvc Posts: 559 ✭✭
    " I even throw out the wrappers rather than make a buck or two just so that I never open a pack down the road re-sealed with my own damn wrappers "

    glad to hear i'm not the only one
    Bob
  • yankeeno7yankeeno7 Posts: 9,248 ✭✭✭
    I wonder even buying a rack case of 78's.....how much money could you recoup on selling the packs with the stars on top? Ok, you may screw yourself somewhat on your percentage of star cards....but how much will a rack go with Murray on top? Molitor on top? The Ryans, Roses, Reggies, and on and on and on, sell for? Could you end up with 20-30 free packs or would you lose your shirt?
    I wouldnt mind having the extra 3K to give it a try....but my debtors and landlord just wont let me! image
  • CDsNutsCDsNuts Posts: 10,092 ✭
    Selling the packs with stars on top is key because:

    a- The cards on top usually have at least 1 soft corner, + you can tell if it's off-center or not.
    b- You will usually get more than you would for the raw card and a pack combined
    c- You need to recoup what you spent any way you can

    I wouldn't hesitate to open a pack with a Murray or Mollie/Trammell on top that appears mint and centered, but otherwise I'd sell every pack with Murray, Molitor/Trammell, Ryan, and Rose to get some of my money back. I'm doing the same thing on a much much much much (add 10 more much) smaller scale with a 1989 Fleer bask. rack case, selling 2 packs with Jordan on bottom, and 1 pack with Jordan Sticker on bottom. I spent $2 per rack, and I should get back around $15-$20 total for the three packs, plus I can tell they are not perfectly centered. I should recoup at least 10% of what I spent for 4% of what I actually bought.

    Lee
  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,407 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I found this 79T Rack with a Murray 2nd yr card on the back from a box in a case I had not looked at - but look at the centering! That's my big problem with the late 70's - centering!!! Now the back could be bad and the front good but I wouldn't bet the farm or anything.

    image

    I'm entertaining offers! image

    your friend
    Mike

    edit: I did find one with a Rose, Mollie, Brett on the back also and one with Munson and Palmer on the front. Where's the Oz!!!
    Mike
  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,407 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have not looked at these racks since I first got them back around 93! Have been selling some from a box that started with sending one to a board member at Christmas. When I didn't find an Oz on top or bottom, I pretty much forgot about them.

    But here is a rack that satisifies two groups - too bad the centering wasn't perfect?!?!?! I enlarged it a bit to see better.

    image

    People doing the 79T set are definitely gluttons for punishment! image

    Thanx for viewing
    your friend
    Mike
    Mike
  • Love of the GameLove of the Game Posts: 250 ✭✭
    BTW, I was the board member that Mike sent the 79 rack pack to at Christmas...a super gift from a great guy, pulled a gorgeous Bench out of the pack.

    I am a BIG fan of buying late 70s wax and vending, despite the fact that it's overpriced. I bought one of the $575 wax boxes of 78 Topps that Softparade is talking about, and found the cards nice and sharp, with decent centering as well. Over the past six months I've bought three 1977 Topps vending boxes (opened two), one 1978 wax box, a 1979 vending box, two 1981 Fleer vending boxes, and a 1982 Topps vending box. The Fleers sucked, but all the others were dynamite.

    I've sent in some of the 77s to PSA and got a bunch of 8s and a few 9s (including a nice Nolie), and sent some of the 78s and 79s to SGC, including a 79 Schmidt that got a 98.

    I got bit by this bug in 1991, when a local card shop latched on to a box of 1955 Bowmans. I bought three packs from the guy at $100 each - one at a time. I ripped each one of the packs and don't regret it for a second. Life is for living.

    Remind me some day I'll post a scan of one of the gum-damaged cards - NASTY!!!

    -Al
  • ldfergldferg Posts: 6,742 ✭✭✭
    i pulled a nice ryan and rose as well from stone. planning to have them both graded.

    stone seems to be "top notch"...

    do you still have any of the racks you've mentioned in this thread (i.e. murray on back, munson and murray and front, etc...)?

    still waiting to pull the oz myself...: image


    Thanks,

    David (LD_Ferg)



    1985 Topps Football (starting in psa 8) - #9 - started 05/21/06
  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,407 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>i pulled a nice ryan and rose as well from stone. planning to have them both graded.

    stone seems to be "top notch"...

    do you still have any of the racks you've mentioned in this thread (i.e. murray on back, munson and murray and front, etc...)?

    still waiting to pull the oz myself...: image >>


    Id
    I will be keeping the Munson/Murray front but the others are available.

    Id and Novocent
    Thanx for the kind words! image

    your friend
    Mike
    Mike
  • rvcrvc Posts: 559 ✭✭
    hey novo- where'd you get the '77 vending?
    Bob
  • Love of the GameLove of the Game Posts: 250 ✭✭
    Bought two of them on EBay, from Alan & Son. The third I got from some guy, I can't remember who, but I took a risk and got it for less than $300, turned out to be a dynamite box.

    -Al
  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mike, you are one year off the COOL cards man! image

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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