Have you read the analysis of the Wisconsin quarter die gouges by Ken Potter?
DorkGirl
Posts: 9,994 ✭✭✭
Very interesting.
He starts with this on the previous page:
Please Note: We do NOT buy or sell the Wisconsin Quarters with the so-called
Extra Leaf or High & Low Leaf Varieties. In our opinion, these are minor
die gouges that are highly inflated in price at this time due to being promoted under
misleading nicknames that suggest they are something more significant than they are.
Here's the article...
gouges
He starts with this on the previous page:
Please Note: We do NOT buy or sell the Wisconsin Quarters with the so-called
Extra Leaf or High & Low Leaf Varieties. In our opinion, these are minor
die gouges that are highly inflated in price at this time due to being promoted under
misleading nicknames that suggest they are something more significant than they are.
Here's the article...
gouges
Becky
0
Comments
At the end of the day, there are other examples of die gouges that are collectible. The one that comes immediately to mind is the 1952 proof "superbird" quarter. I am sure there are more.
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!
- Widespread publicity
- The variety has an interesting relationship to the design
- Catchy nickname
Signed,
Spiked Chin, Bugs Bunny and 3-Legged Buffalo
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
al h.
But this time it's different. We did not have to wait for them to issue their edicts in numismatic publications, or wait for those publications to show the pictures. We all had it immediately, pictures and tale, and the experts were behind the curve for the first time, and are struggling to catch up by reframing the debate. The accidental die "theory" conveniently follows the path that resembles the symbol for infinity, it never ends. The design variation "theory" provides an explanation and an end to speculation.
Design variation? Does it look like a leaf? Does the second also look like a leaf? Is it in the precise location for a leaf to be? Is the other one in the precise location for a leaf to be? Does the design element start and end precisely at the correct points to make it a whole with the rest of the coin design? How about the other design element?
Yes to all? Die gouge, then. Accidental. Providential. Coincidental. Prone to endless discussion.
It should be apparent by now that the "error experts" will not accept an explanation, and why they won't.
Bill
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
on dies which closely resemble design elements and then that these
dies will go into production on the same press.
The odds of even a single gouge resembling a leaf is a little far fetched.
<< <i>It strains credulity to imagine that two accidendal gouges >>
The author asserts that the origin of the die gouges matter little. Not that they are accidental.
He always wants to buy for nothing. He cannot buy these for nothing.
It is easy to take a opposite position. I guarentee if he had been the discoverer it would be a major find! and he would offer no discounts!
Tbig
The basis of the value of a coin is demand. There has never been demand in the millions for a specific American coin. You can throw the books away on this one. Main stream America and main stream press have got hold of it.
I myself have drawn comparisons to the 1955dd cent and the 1937 3-legged buffalo nickel. It occurred to me tonight that those are probably not apples to oranges.
A closer comparison could probably be made to 1999 silver proof sets. The mint made almost a million of them. And now you can buy all you want, a mere 5 years later, for $300 a pop on eBay. Somewhere there are almost a million statehood quarter collectors sophisticated enough to know they not only want statehood quarters, but proofs, and silver proofs at that. So demand for a million of these extra leaf quarters doesn't seem so far fetched, does it? And what if the high end (but as yet unproven) estimate of 10,000 or more is correct? That would still make them 80 times more rare than the 1999 silver proof sets. Suddenly 3 or 4 times the price of a 1999 silver proof set doesn't seem so out of line.
--Severian the Lame
Furthermore, why is everyone using the words scam, greed and investment when they talk about these??? These are collectibles, and buying something for $1000 can hardly be construed as an investment. Come on. What's the definition of greed? The ones selling them are not the greedy ones - would it not be the buyers? These may go down in value, they may not, but they are not investments. Anyone who has a sick stomach buying these, then worried about losing money, should not have "collected" them in the first place.
I have a set, and I dont care if they go down to a buck. It is a great modern story and they are mine for good.
-----Lloyd
I disagree. It is giving the modern collector world GREAT PRESS. Not a black eye at all!!! It has brewed more excitement not only with modern coinage, but for the numismatic hobby in general!
"On the so-called low leaf what we see is a crescent shaped doubled curve with its base starting within the central area of the lower corn which then skips the high points of the larger leaf and reappears outside to continue its curve until it ends at the cheese. Corn leaves do not grow right through the center of other leaves (like an arrow shot through the leaf). If this was a deliberate design the so-called extra leaf would have been coming out from under that main leaf or would have been overlapping -- not created as a composite that shows it piercing through in such an unnatural fashion."
My thoughts:
How does Ken know that leaf "started" within the central area of the other leaves? The alteration could have started at the leafs edge then dug in on the other side of the low point of the die. Where one sees the leaf coming out within the corn stalk is the very lowest point on the coin design, which would be the high point on the die easy to gouge. It still overlaps.
Wouldn't a die dent produce the same effect, meaning you would not see a composite like the lower leaf piercing the leaf? If it was gouged by a mint worker, they could have controlled the depth and made a piercing effect happen.
Tbig
I should also add that Ken Potter's opinion is his own and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of CONECA . CONECA has not as yet taken any official position on recognizing the up and down leaf varieties. Frankly, I sincerely doubt that, once CONECA comes out with an opinion, it will have any impact whatsoever, postiive or negative, on the acceptance or value of these coins in the marketplace.
Sean Reynolds
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
with this supposed variety it's much the same. well regarded dealers aren't really questioned while dealers held in contempt are again scorned, even as they propose a reasonable explanation. wouldn't it be more intelligent and helpful to the collecting community to discuss the points made in the linked analysis rather than to discredit the writer??
al h.
Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is the one most likely to be correct. ("Plurality should not be posited without necessity.")
The explanation of die gouges/dents is consistent with the visual evidence and does not rely upon endless assumptions, coincidences and unlikely events.
as i mentioned on page one, that's not necessarily a good thing. my father happened to mention it to me over the weekend. like the rest of the legions, he's only now looking at his Wisconsin Quarters for the big payday---greed. he really has no desire to learn anything about the coins, the minting process or the chance that this may be nothing more than a damaged die or a variety in larger numbers as yet fully discovered.
the non-collector public will soon lose interest. hopefully, none will follow the "hay trail" into the pen.
al h.
<< <i>
The explanation of die gouges/dents is consistent with the visual evidence and does not rely upon endless assumptions, coincidences and unlikely events. >>
The two coins have only been found together so far!!! Talk about coincidence.
<< <i>He only gave his opinion about the coins, and not your character.
>>
I have a great deal of respect for Ken Potter and this doesn't really shake it even though
I believe he is wrong on this. His summation is much more easily agreed with than most of
the rest of the statements he has made on the subject though it appears to be more a matter
of the mass media picking up on the story than true "promotion".
This will probably be good for the hobby even if one considers these to be trivial errors.
It's not overly surprising that some might question his motives.
I want to make clear that I am under no illusion that these coins are most probably here to stay. There are too many major players that have gotten behind these coins that will continue to push them as something that they are not for a long enough period to make them stick. It appears this is one of those rare examples of a trivial error type being promoted into familiarity and acceptance by the big promoters. Very few minor errors given fancy nicknames ever stick but a few do catch on. In a nutshell, what I am against is the promotion of such items under misleading nicknames. I wonder how well these coins would have sold if they were labeled as what they are rather than with a nickname that suggests they are much more?
<< <i>this is the kind of thing that gives the hobby in general and Moderns in particular an undeserved black eye. motivated, in a word, by Greed.
al h.
Well said Al, I agree.
For those of you who are bashing Ken's character and mocking the so called "error experts" let me ask you this: Would you rather have your neighbor who works at the local flower shop do the front brakes on your car or the guys down at Mineke? The "experts" who are viewing and posting thier opinions on these coins have "been there, done that" for a long, long time; whether or not they think it is an intentional design change or a die gouge... What more do you want? I, as well as Sean (as he stated before), have been involved in the "behind the scenes" discussions on the coins with all of the "experts" and I can tell you alot of thought has gone into determining what the cause of this annomily is. There has been alot of disagreement but no hard feelings. It's what makes this hobby go-round and I feel privledged to be a part of it.
Regardless of the cause, the coin is obviously here to stay and the market will determine what it is worth ultimately in the end...
J. Taylor
CONECA Member
FSNC Member
This was not my intention.
Tbig
are they "leaves" simply because of their placement in the design? on any other coin, a perfectly arc like raised portion would easily be thought of as a gouge first. i think that is one of the points Ken was trying to make.
on the flip side, what's done is done, the cat is out of the bag, the term "high leaf" has been coined, and the coins are out there. the true cause, intentional or accidental, matters not.
did they guy making the 3-leg buff *mean* to do that? would it matter?
i think as an "error expert" one would take glee when an error so clearly "jives" with the design of a coin that it could be taken as a variety. when the normal day to day error coin is only for the error collector, error coins that have personality have the potential to cross over into the normal collector market. not saying every error coin with personality becomes a collected and sought after variety, but so far, these two quarters have been.
<< <i>
did they guy making the 3-leg buff *mean* to do that? would it matter?
>>
This is the point I've been trying to make; the creator of the 3-leg buffalo probably wasn't
trying to make a variety and may not have known he did even after the fact. These leaves
were almost certainly intentional and even show some some small artistic ability. Considering
the crude tools which were probably used it becomes even more remarkable.
Does it matter? In this case it probably does.
And if you bought a set, YOU COULD BE LOSING YOUR LIFE SAVINGS. So funny to me.
In the mean time, there are collectors and dealers doing much better buying and selling on a daily basis compared to the little Wisconsin Q.
The W Quarter is a TINY speck in the money making world of coins.
----Lloyd
Collectors need to make their own judgement on these. You don't need a 20x glass to see them. The potential for appreciation on this issue is very high...and I don't own any.
Ken's thought that die gouges are worthless varieties (behind cuds, no less) is rediculous! Who is he to dictate (again) what collectors should buy and what they shouldn't! Are overpolished dies worth more that "die gouges" that look like extra design elements? I don't think so. I think these are "Neater" than the 1937-D 3-legged Buffalo AND the 1922 No D cent because it is a harder variety to create. The fact that the 2004 WI quarter doesn't have a 75 year track record is besides the point. 75 years from now, these coins will be classics. Heck, They already are!
If these had come out in New England states and not in Tucson, I'd have the same feeling. These are a great boon to the hobby, and are great for that reason for starters. I am lucky to live where they surfaced. I set the prices in the Coin World ad, and as it turns out I figured these varieties too cheap. The demand far outstripped the supply. The flurry of mainstram press has reinvigorated maybe a million collectors! I'm all behind coins that are a boon to the hobby.
As for debating the cause, this should continue. As with the the years of press the 1804 Dollars got over the years, debate will only enhace these coins desirabilty.
<< <i>Jeez....why do so many attack the man's character, rather than his opinion? Ken Potter wasn't hurling such insults in his analysis, was he? He only gave his opinion about the coins, and not your character.
Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is the one most likely to be correct. ("Plurality should not be posited without necessity.")
The explanation of die gouges/dents is consistent with the visual evidence and does not rely upon endless assumptions, coincidences and unlikely events. >>
I'll tell you why, because he uses his posistion as a numismatic journalist to manipulate the market. When the type two Lincolns were discovered, Coin World interviewed him and he claimed that they were not major varieities, and only worth a couple of dollars at most. Six months later, after buying who knows how many of them, guess what turned up for sale in quantity on his site for $79-200+? Yup, you guessed it, the type two Lincolns that he claimed were only worth $2 six months earlier. This sound like almost a repeat perfomance, and I won't be surprised at all when he starts selling these "$10" coins for many hundreds in a few months after he stocks up.
I was looking to pay $50 for a set at the beginning, which is way more than I'd pay for an ordinary die gouge. If they hadn't made the national news, maybe they would have settled at that price.
No biggie, though. There are many affordable die errors and die varieties out there that are also intrinsically interesting and which are much more affordable.
I see no ulterior motive in Ken's article. I feel he is expressing an honest opinion, and one must respect that. While I would not characterize these defects as "trivial", I also would not claim they are extra design elements. They may be accidental or they may represent acts of creative vandalism. We may never know.
-- Mike Diamond
$10 a coin?, get real. Delaware 100 coin bags are selling for $500. That's $5 a coin with nothing rare or unique about it.
My addition to the discusion is this;
In this world of instant gratification we may be missing the BIG picture. The 3 legged buffalo is 70 years old!!! Just think if your grandma or grandpa would have bought one and put away an MSXX for you?
So that's what you do, buy one, put it away and pass it along, in 70 years, this will be big time and your kids or grand kids will be glad their Dad (you) or Grandpa (you again) had bought the coin when they were cheap.
<< <i>
i think as an "error expert" one would take glee when an error so clearly "jives" with the design of a coin that it could be taken as a variety. when the normal day to day error coin is only for the error collector, error coins that have personality have the potential to cross over into the normal collector market. not saying every error coin with personality becomes a collected and sought after variety, but so far, these two quarters have been. >>
As a minor collector of error coins, i also would expect an error dealer to "get behind" something of this nature. I can understand not being overly impressed with the coins, but he really does seem to be bending over backward to disparage them and anyone who believes they are anything more than 10 dollar oddities.
In his attempt to justify his devaluing them monetarily, (which, i'm sorry, but i'd have to believe that if he had seen these first and had the opportunity to introduce them to the "e-world" he would have happily done so, and perhaps at not the prices at which Rick saw these things FLY out his door) he presents the "die gouges" as trivial and unartful.
Guess what, if these are both incidental errors caused by gouging, hey, how cool is that, they couldn't have possibly happened in more interesting spots!
If they are intentional, hey, how cool is that, two extra varieties.
Either way, this is taking, arguably, the most widely collected series of coins in history and combining them with one of the most esoteric branches of the hobby and presenting them together for the first time on a national scale.
Hey, how cool is that?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
keets....your exactly right imho
lyod
the are 2 types of publicity
good and bad
its great for the nfl when some players go to the hospital and visit the kids
its bad for the nfl when some players are busted for drugs
the guys selling this ridulous error know exactly what they are doing.....feeding on the unknowing ...and i can assure you....if they really believe in its value now and in the future....they should make a market...in other words....a guaranteed buy back or a posted buy/sell spread
***btw....show me a dealer with a 20% spread...please....and i will short 1000 of them to him for april delivery
fact is nobody will do it..thus its a terrible buy....and it is not good for the hobby in the long term....and if its not good for the hobby...im against it and those that sell them...case closed
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>I agree with it doesn't matter how it got there, the fact is it is there. And it's very cool.
$10 a coin?, get real. Delaware 100 coin bags are selling for $500. That's $5 a coin with nothing rare or unique about it.
My addition to the discusion is this;
In this world of instant gratification we may be missing the BIG picture. The 3 legged buffalo is 70 years old!!! Just think if your grandma or grandpa would have bought one and put away an MSXX for you?
So that's what you do, buy one, put it away and pass it along, in 70 years, this will be big time and your kids or grand kids will be glad their Dad (you) or Grandpa (you again) had bought the coin when they were cheap. >>
But what if your grandma had put away several mint state Bar-0 nickels, or BIE cents, or cracked skulls, or monocle Lincolns, or pi$$ing minuteman quarters, or.... ?
I think a point Ken is trying to make, which is being lost on most of the folks here, is that not every mundane error with a catchy nickname and a marketing campaign holds its value. It takes a pretty unique confluence of circumstances to generate a high interest level and maintain it over time. For example, there wouldn't be a 1922 Plain if Philadelphia had struck cents that year. Three- and 3-1/2 Legged Buffalo Nickels exist for several dates, but none got the publicity push of the '37-D. Today it sure looks like the WI quarter has what it takes to be an enduring and accepted variety, but I won't be shocked if five years (or five months) from now interest and prices have waned.
Sean Reynolds
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
>>>Delaware 100 coin bags are selling for $500. That's $5 a coin with nothing rare or unique about it
i have 50 bank rolls...will anyone make me a offer??
thanks
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>sean
>>>Delaware 100 coin bags are selling for $500. That's $5 a coin with nothing rare or unique about it
i have 50 bank rolls...will anyone make me a offer??
thanks
monsterman >>
That wasn't my quote, I was quoting another earlier post. In a round-about way I was agreeing with you. Thanks, but I'll pass on the DEs.
Sean Reynolds
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
<< <i>
fact is nobody will do it..thus its a terrible buy....and it is not good for the hobby in the long term....and if its not good for the hobby...im against it and those that sell them...case closed
monsterman >>
MM
i don't necessarily agree that just because some of these may be selling at unfortunately (for the buyer) high prices right now, that in the long run it is not going to be good for the hobby. obviously the greed factor enters into something where there is a rush to profits - my earlier point, that national exposure is being given to one of the lesser known sides of the hobby (error coinage) through an extremely popular side (state quarters) will possibly prove to be a great boon to the hobby. people think the errors are cool, they discover the '55 d/d cent and the 3-leg buff, they get into some different series, different eras....... who's to say.
btw, there are some who say there's no such thing as good or bad publicity, it's all just PUBLICITY.
my formula for a good investment is
quality plus rareity divided by demand
thus i think the rareity factor here is the issue....are there 50,000 more coming???...and if so there better be 50,001 wanting them or the price goes down
thus my formula #2 has to be inserted here
quality plus rareity divided by demand x marketing
the marketing is the publicity and once the free pub goes away the price will go down
this is my same formula for shipwreck items...once the " boys" quit pumping ......the price always goes down
personally
i would much rather have a washington carver commem ith a total mintage of 8000 coins....and betting that people will wake up to how important george caver was and is to our lives today...also add in the fact that black people will evolve into collectors and put huge demand on such a small mintage as well as want a token of their heritage
carver saved the south with his alternate planting theories as cotton had striped the earth of neutriants ..... not to mention his work on plants that are used today by nasa to sustain life ( aka food ) in space
today there are millions of jobs in america that are directly related to carver
and when the "publicity" gets out..those 8,000 coins will be much more expensive...as there are....only 8,000 coins to be had
fixed supply with an increase demand....spells increased cost imho
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Here is some info that you can use if you want. PCGS was very tight on these. No MS67's very few MS-66's. These will be the next thing to amaze everyone when one of these sells at auction. (I regret selling my few MS66's and don't have any left)
The estimated # found is still 2000 high leaf and 3000 low leaf. There is absolutly no hint of greater numbers.
The Booker T Washington and Washington Carver commems are just plain ugly, unless with prety toning.