Thats cool. Its interesting because the "true" grade is still technically subjective (PCGS' opinion, right or wrong), so you would really have to be thinking to yourself "what would PCGS grade this?" not "What would I grade this?". Whats that old adage... you can't study something without affecting the results.
In any case, I'm not knocking it. Thats a fun thing to do and I'd like to do it myself so that everyone could laugh and point at my results.
Congrats to the winners, it is surely a very challenging contest.
I hope people look at the results closely.
The winner in the professional division, out of 33 coins that graded between 60-70, got 18 right, and missed 15. All the misses were by either one point or by a designation, but it should demonstrate just how hard it is to grade MS or PR coins using one point increments. The winner got only 55% right (by PCGS standards).
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
<< <i>Is the one that Cameron was going to walk away with a boatload of stuff (plus a hot date) if he won? >>
Yes, Cameron will be 'set up' on a date with a fairly attractive young lady should he win at Long Beach. However, all that will happen is him being 'set up' and the cost of dinner covered, anything beyond that depends on his charisma
<< <i>Is the one that Cameron was going to walk away with a boatload of stuff (plus a hot date) if he won? >>
Yes, Cameron will be 'set up' on a date with a fairly attractive young lady should he win at Long Beach. However, all that will happen is him being 'set up' and the cost of dinner covered, anything beyond that depends on his charisma >>
His Mustang should win him some points (as long as someone chips in for some music cd's). I don't think Rush Limbaugh will score too many points.
<< <I>Is the one that Cameron was going to walk away with a boatload of stuff (plus a hot date) if he won?</I> >>
Yes, Cameron will be 'set up' on a date with a fairly attractive young lady should he win at Long Beach. However, all that will happen is him being 'set up' and the cost of dinner covered, anything beyond that depends on his charisma
I work in educational and psychological testing, particularly the testing of language ability, where there is a lot of rating that goes on (think oral language proficiency interviews). I agree with the earlier comments that this is not really an exercise in validity. Rather it is an exercise in reliability against the standard promoted by one source: PCGS.
Ideally, what should be done is this, speaking from my study of rating scales: (1) Do the exact exercise reported here, then (2) get all raters in a room to discuss the coins (including however many raters at PCGS support the values given in that scale), then (3) have all raters discuss the ratings given to this practice set, then (4) have all the raters -- PCGS included -- rate another practice set and repeat steps (1) through (3). This can all cycle a time or two, and by that point, the last-most practice set has stable ratings, because it includes not only the perceptions of the raters but also the negotiation they have done and learning accomplished (what philosophers of testing call 'hermaneutic assessment'). When to stop is an interesting point: when do you reach the last-most-set, or what testers call the 'anchor set' for subsequent training? That could be determined statistically, by an inter-rater correlation coefficient or some other more exotic statistic.
The last-most set would then be the anchor set for a true World Series which would follow with new raters.
Of course, the last-most set may not -- itself -- be 'truth'. It represents the agreement and negotiation among the raters in the cycled system I describe above. One scholar in my industry called it cloning.
I was dusted & humiliated for a 2nd year in a row. Scored a 54, which sadly enough was actually a small improvement over my 52.5 last year. It is a really great experience, keeps you totally humble for at least a year and I highly recommend it.
Edited to add: I did get the one Franky in the mix (1956 MS66FBL) right, and I did get all the DCAM & CAM coins right. The Gold just clobbered me and I didn't call the AT on the Barber Half.
I just went back to look at my score closer. I undergraded each and every $20 gold piece (and there were 7 in the test) by exactly 1 point. Every dang one was exactly one point higher than the grade I gave it.
Good news: I'm just as consistent in my gold grading as PCGS.
mrfred: Don't let David Hall read your post, grading lead times are long enough already.
Sean Reynolds
Incomplete planchets wanted, especially Lincoln Cents & type coins.
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
The 55% accuracy of the winner is more a reflection of the bouncing standard by PCGS than the grader's skill. You have to figure that anything they have graded has an accuracy of plus or minus 3/4 point. Which standard do you use to grade coins when you take the test? PCGS has several standards..and non of them are probably in line with the reference grading set. Wonder if they still have those to show them how they graded back in 1986.
Collectors tend to be far tougher on the designations of Cam, DCAM, FBL, FSB, than the services do. The last thing a collector needs is to be on the wrong side of the grading continuum where they would grade a touch looser at times than PCGS. They HAVE to be on the tighter side for financial survival. But if you're too tight, you have trouble buying anything.
1882-s $ I called 65, they called it 63. I must have missed something major on this coin as usually my grading is touch tighter than PCGS with my grades running a point lower than thiers occasionally.
Thier were several $20 in the box, I was a little more consistent on average but undegraded 2 coins by two full grade points.
I called two Morgans AT that were not. One had the cresent looking toning that looked so fake, it had to be AT, the toning looked like painted on. However, must not have been, as they assigned it a grade.
I picked up on the replica calf gold, but missed the counterfiet $2.50 (My lack of expereince in gold cost me here) I knew something wasnt quite right, but just didnt have the diagnostics downpat.
I did lots better on the designations this time only missing the franklin half. Nailed the grade, but missed the FBL. I remember looking at this coin very close, and still to this day, knowing the coin is an FBL, I still would not grade it FBL. A near miss IMO.
On the positve side, I did a lot better on the commems. Last time I undergraded them too much. Did very well on the other denom coins like the nickels, dimes, half, etc.
Again, very FUN and educational. I didnt enter this time to try and go after the 5k, as I merely wanted to see if I could do a little better on the grading this go around. I wasnt planning on attending the ANA show at all this year.
The winner in the professional division, out of 33 coins that graded between 60-70, got 18 right, and missed 15. All the misses were by either one point or by a designation, but it should demonstrate just how hard it is to grade MS or PR coins using one point increments. The winner got only 55% right (by PCGS standards).
it's probably more accurate to say that "the winner and PCGS agreed 55% of the time" since it's evident/ been proven that PCGS often doesn't even agree with themselves, so how can they ever be RIGHT. this is a nice and entertaining excercise and the guys that participate deserve a tip-o-the-hat from all collectors, but in the end it only serves to strengthen the perception and the reality that PCGS sets the standard by which the hobby grades.
this statement by Barry---NFC coins?! Another great grader at a sleazy third-tier slab seller?!---should speak volumes to us all regarding that point. how can the individual who most closely graded to a sampling of PCGS coins grade coins for another service which are generally perceived as overgraded crap?? the simple answer from my lofty perch; upwards of half of the coins that Mr. Matt Kleinstauber grades for NFC are properly graded. holder bias at it's worst.
Comments
is he a member here?
<< <i>1994-S 5C PR70DCAM PR70DCAM PR70DCAM PR70DCAM >>
Now, who says nobody can tell the difference between a 69DCAM and a 70DCAM?
Russ, NCNE
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Complete Dime Set
Must be a damn good replica.
In any case, I'm not knocking it. Thats a fun thing to do and I'd like to do it myself so that everyone could laugh and point at my results.
<< <i>Is the one that Cameron was going to walk away with a boatload of stuff (plus a hot date) if he won? >>
Cameron is going to kick ass in Long Beach!!!
I hope people look at the results closely.
The winner in the professional division, out of 33 coins that graded between 60-70, got 18 right, and missed 15. All the misses were by either one point or by a designation, but it should demonstrate just how hard it is to grade MS or PR coins using one point increments. The winner got only 55% right (by PCGS standards).
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
<< <i>Is the one that Cameron was going to walk away with a boatload of stuff (plus a hot date) if he won? >>
Yes, Cameron will be 'set up' on a date with a fairly attractive young lady should he win at Long Beach. However, all that will happen is him being 'set up' and the cost of dinner covered, anything beyond that depends on his charisma
Self Indulgence | Holey Coins | Flickr Photostream
<< <i>
<< <i>Is the one that Cameron was going to walk away with a boatload of stuff (plus a hot date) if he won? >>
Yes, Cameron will be 'set up' on a date with a fairly attractive young lady should he win at Long Beach. However, all that will happen is him being 'set up' and the cost of dinner covered, anything beyond that depends on his charisma >>
His Mustang should win him some points (as long as someone chips in for some music cd's). I don't think Rush Limbaugh will score too many points.
Complete Dime Set
Yes, Cameron will be 'set up' on a date with a fairly attractive young lady should he win at Long Beach. However, all that will happen is him being 'set up' and the cost of dinner covered, anything beyond that depends on his charisma
Please define charisma in retrospect of Cammie..
Cameron Kiefer
<< <i>anything beyond that depends on his charisma >>
In that case, he better warm up his right hand.
Russ, NCNE
Cameron Kiefer
<< <i>
<< <i>anything beyond that depends on his charisma >>
In that case, he better warm up his right hand. >>
Are you sure he's not a lefty?
I work in educational and psychological testing, particularly the testing of language ability, where there is a lot of rating that goes on (think oral language proficiency interviews). I agree with the earlier comments that this is not really an exercise in validity. Rather it is an exercise in reliability against the standard promoted by one source: PCGS.
Ideally, what should be done is this, speaking from my study of rating scales: (1) Do the exact exercise reported here, then (2) get all raters in a room to discuss the coins (including however many raters at PCGS support the values given in that scale), then (3) have all raters discuss the ratings given to this practice set, then (4) have all the raters -- PCGS included -- rate another practice set and repeat steps (1) through (3). This can all cycle a time or two, and by that point, the last-most practice set has stable ratings, because it includes not only the perceptions of the raters but also the negotiation they have done and learning accomplished (what philosophers of testing call 'hermaneutic assessment'). When to stop is an interesting point: when do you reach the last-most-set, or what testers call the 'anchor set' for subsequent training? That could be determined statistically, by an inter-rater correlation coefficient or some other more exotic statistic.
The last-most set would then be the anchor set for a true World Series which would follow with new raters.
Of course, the last-most set may not -- itself -- be 'truth'. It represents the agreement and negotiation among the raters in the cycled system I describe above. One scholar in my industry called it cloning.
<< <i>2nd place - Matt Kleinstauber 75.5 >>
Way to go Matt! He is 19 years old and works for NFC coins!
Cameron Kiefer
That was deep, man!
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
<< <i>2nd place - Matt Kleinstauber 75.5 >>
Way to go Matt! He is 19 years old and works for NFC coins!
Cameron Kiefer >>
NFC coins?! Another great grader at a sleazy third-tier slab seller?!
the rest of the contestants. Anyway, I dont think they will let bears
into the contest.
Camelot
Russ, thank you.
It is also costly!!
NoEbayAuctionsForNow
Edited to add: I did get the one Franky in the mix (1956 MS66FBL) right, and I did get all the DCAM & CAM coins right. The Gold just clobbered me and I didn't call the AT on the Barber Half.
Greg Hansen, Melbourne, FL Click here for any current EBAY auctions Multiple "Circle of Trust" transactions over 14 years on forum
Good news: I'm just as consistent in my gold grading as PCGS.
Bad news: Consistently wrong!
Greg Hansen, Melbourne, FL Click here for any current EBAY auctions Multiple "Circle of Trust" transactions over 14 years on forum
Yeah, but you'd rather be on the conservative side.
Sean Reynolds
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
54 is a decent and quite respectable score. Being on the conservative side is not a bad thing. I was there last year.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Way to go!!!
Tbig
Collectors tend to be far tougher on the designations of Cam, DCAM, FBL, FSB, than the services do. The last thing a collector needs is to be on the wrong side of the grading continuum where they would grade a touch looser at times than PCGS. They HAVE to be on the tighter side for financial survival. But if you're too tight, you have trouble buying anything.
roadrunner
A few that I really blew it on were:
1882-s $ I called 65, they called it 63. I must have missed something major on this coin as usually my grading is touch tighter than PCGS with my grades running a point lower than thiers occasionally.
Thier were several $20 in the box, I was a little more consistent on average but undegraded 2 coins by two full grade points.
I called two Morgans AT that were not. One had the cresent looking toning that looked so fake, it had to be AT, the toning looked like painted on. However, must not have been, as they assigned it a grade.
I picked up on the replica calf gold, but missed the counterfiet $2.50 (My lack of expereince in gold cost me here) I knew something wasnt quite right, but just didnt have the diagnostics downpat.
I did lots better on the designations this time only missing the franklin half. Nailed the grade, but missed the FBL. I remember looking at this coin very close, and still to this day, knowing the coin is an FBL, I still would not grade it FBL. A near miss IMO.
On the positve side, I did a lot better on the commems. Last time I undergraded them too much. Did very well on the other denom coins like the nickels, dimes, half, etc.
Again, very FUN and educational. I didnt enter this time to try and go after the 5k, as I merely wanted to see if I could do a little better on the grading this go around. I wasnt planning on attending the ANA show at all this year.
it's probably more accurate to say that "the winner and PCGS agreed 55% of the time" since it's evident/ been proven that PCGS often doesn't even agree with themselves, so how can they ever be RIGHT. this is a nice and entertaining excercise and the guys that participate deserve a tip-o-the-hat from all collectors, but in the end it only serves to strengthen the perception and the reality that PCGS sets the standard by which the hobby grades.
this statement by Barry---NFC coins?! Another great grader at a sleazy third-tier slab seller?!---should speak volumes to us all regarding that point. how can the individual who most closely graded to a sampling of PCGS coins grade coins for another service which are generally perceived as overgraded crap?? the simple answer from my lofty perch; upwards of half of the coins that Mr. Matt Kleinstauber grades for NFC are properly graded. holder bias at it's worst.
al h.
I see it differently - dealer ethics at its worst!