Observations On 1971 Topps Baseball Populations
Mefer
Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭
There has not been a thread in a while on 1971 Topps baseball (my birth year and one of my all time favorite sets). I am working on a PSA graded set and am about half way there at 7 or better. Here are some thoughts and comments I have based upon a sampling of population reports.
The Samples
I took a stab at pulling most of the big money cards from the set (a few are excluded) and the Tony Conigliaro card whose relevance will be shown in a bit. Numbers are current as of 2-8-05. Only straight grades are included (i.e., no qualifiers):
Player Total Graded 8 9 10
5 Munson 387 27 1 0
20 Jackson 453 80 5 0
100 Rose 611 89 4 1
105 T. Conigliaro 195 111 10 2
250 J. Bench 309 81 4 0
400 Aaron 915 290 28 2
513 Ryan 1550 322 16 0
600 W. Mays 648 159 10 0
630 Clemente 929 250 15 1
Observations, Comments and Questions
How do we, as the public in general, decide which cards to submit? I don't think this question is as simple as it sounds. Player popularity of course plays a role but how savvy, in general, is the average PSA submitter to also be cognizant of condition in making decisions? In the case of 71 Topps, Ryan, Clemente and Aaron, in that order, are the most popular submitted cards. Frankly, with the huge popularity of Rose, I am quite surprised he is not in the top three. What explains this? The Rose card does seem to be one of the tough ones as far as centering is concerned. Perhaps with the 71s condition plus player appeal are both factors. This would seem to also be demonstrated by the relatively low number of Munson's submitted at 387. A hugely popular Yankee whose cards always sell easily. Why then have not more been submitted? Here is another card that does typically encounter centering problems and apparently is playing a factor in what is submitted.
Jumping to the Conigliaro, I am fascinated by the numbers. A full 63.1%, yes 63.1% of the samples submitted have graded 8 or higher! Wow! Of course, this could be skewed somewhat by the sample size (195 which is low compared to the sampling of stars above) but it is still amazing. My personal 8 of the card has got to be one of the most amazing and crisp 8s in my collection. How did Mr. C get so lucky? I have not seen an uncut sheet of the first series from 71 but would be willing to bet he is somewhere in the middle. Even then, the apparent good fortune shown on his cards still cannot be entirely explained. Anyone have any thoughts on this amazing stat?
Another useful tool is to rank the above cards in order from the highest percentage of 8 or higher to the lowest (lets exclude that freak Mr. Tony C):
400 Aaron 35.0%
630 R. Clemente 28.6%
250 J. Bench 27.5%
600 W. Mays 26.1%
513 N. Ryan 21.8%
20 Jackson 18.8%
100 Rose 15.4%
5 Munson 7.2%
As we all know, the Rose and Munson cards carry huge premiums in 8 or higher. Truly justified by the numbers. Given the percentages and the great popularity of Munson, a Munson 8 (which typically goes for about the same price as a Rose 8) is a little under valued. What a tough card! If I had to guess the sheet location of the Munson, I would say it was the top upper left card. The Rose card, which seems to typically run into trouble on left to right centering, was probably found somewhere in a middle row on the outer edge (my guess is left). Has anyone seen any uncut sheet from 71 Topps especially the first series?
The Ryan numbers are simpling mind boggling. A higher number card that has had about 600 more samples submitted than the next highest card. Ryan of course is hugely popular but these numbers are mind boggling. I would still think, regardless of condition, more Rose's would be submitted. However, going back to 1971, Rose was an established player (for goodness sakes, he received a mighty card number reserved for the greats of the day, an even hundred number (100 in this case)) and perhaps his card was traded, cherished and handled more than some "no name" Nolan Ryan on the odd number 513. Maybe this also offers an explanation?
Just random thoughts. Would like to hear what anyone else has to say.
The Samples
I took a stab at pulling most of the big money cards from the set (a few are excluded) and the Tony Conigliaro card whose relevance will be shown in a bit. Numbers are current as of 2-8-05. Only straight grades are included (i.e., no qualifiers):
Player Total Graded 8 9 10
5 Munson 387 27 1 0
20 Jackson 453 80 5 0
100 Rose 611 89 4 1
105 T. Conigliaro 195 111 10 2
250 J. Bench 309 81 4 0
400 Aaron 915 290 28 2
513 Ryan 1550 322 16 0
600 W. Mays 648 159 10 0
630 Clemente 929 250 15 1
Observations, Comments and Questions
How do we, as the public in general, decide which cards to submit? I don't think this question is as simple as it sounds. Player popularity of course plays a role but how savvy, in general, is the average PSA submitter to also be cognizant of condition in making decisions? In the case of 71 Topps, Ryan, Clemente and Aaron, in that order, are the most popular submitted cards. Frankly, with the huge popularity of Rose, I am quite surprised he is not in the top three. What explains this? The Rose card does seem to be one of the tough ones as far as centering is concerned. Perhaps with the 71s condition plus player appeal are both factors. This would seem to also be demonstrated by the relatively low number of Munson's submitted at 387. A hugely popular Yankee whose cards always sell easily. Why then have not more been submitted? Here is another card that does typically encounter centering problems and apparently is playing a factor in what is submitted.
Jumping to the Conigliaro, I am fascinated by the numbers. A full 63.1%, yes 63.1% of the samples submitted have graded 8 or higher! Wow! Of course, this could be skewed somewhat by the sample size (195 which is low compared to the sampling of stars above) but it is still amazing. My personal 8 of the card has got to be one of the most amazing and crisp 8s in my collection. How did Mr. C get so lucky? I have not seen an uncut sheet of the first series from 71 but would be willing to bet he is somewhere in the middle. Even then, the apparent good fortune shown on his cards still cannot be entirely explained. Anyone have any thoughts on this amazing stat?
Another useful tool is to rank the above cards in order from the highest percentage of 8 or higher to the lowest (lets exclude that freak Mr. Tony C):
400 Aaron 35.0%
630 R. Clemente 28.6%
250 J. Bench 27.5%
600 W. Mays 26.1%
513 N. Ryan 21.8%
20 Jackson 18.8%
100 Rose 15.4%
5 Munson 7.2%
As we all know, the Rose and Munson cards carry huge premiums in 8 or higher. Truly justified by the numbers. Given the percentages and the great popularity of Munson, a Munson 8 (which typically goes for about the same price as a Rose 8) is a little under valued. What a tough card! If I had to guess the sheet location of the Munson, I would say it was the top upper left card. The Rose card, which seems to typically run into trouble on left to right centering, was probably found somewhere in a middle row on the outer edge (my guess is left). Has anyone seen any uncut sheet from 71 Topps especially the first series?
The Ryan numbers are simpling mind boggling. A higher number card that has had about 600 more samples submitted than the next highest card. Ryan of course is hugely popular but these numbers are mind boggling. I would still think, regardless of condition, more Rose's would be submitted. However, going back to 1971, Rose was an established player (for goodness sakes, he received a mighty card number reserved for the greats of the day, an even hundred number (100 in this case)) and perhaps his card was traded, cherished and handled more than some "no name" Nolan Ryan on the odd number 513. Maybe this also offers an explanation?
Just random thoughts. Would like to hear what anyone else has to say.
0
Comments
As for the Conig's. I submitted 32 to PSA from the 71 set. I had a block of some real beauties. I received 28-8's and 4-9's. They were some of the best cards I ever submitted.
Well, if you have pictures of the sheets I would love to see them. Let me know, I can give you my e-mail address. Thanks!
can you give me your opinion on their $ value?
i appreciate your input.
but I've never been wrong
it seldom turns out the way
it does in the song
once in a while
you get shown the light
in the strangest of places
if you look at it right
Current obsession, all things Topps 1969 - 1972
<< <i>Reggie J. is in column 1, rows 1 (top left corner) and 7. A hard card to find centered because of this. John. >>
You ain't kidding.
I recently purchased one of these cards in 7 form from ebay and the centering seemed to be just within PSA's 7 standard...when work slows down a bit I am going to scan it to measure it.
Mike
Late 60's and early to mid 70's non-sports
Coachvinny, you ask the prices of "munson, cincepcion, and a garvey in psa 7s". Without seeing the cards, it is hard to say exactly; pricing on 7s can be dictated a lot by centering. However, my rough estimates would be:
Munson $75 to $100
Concepcion $10 to $20
Garvey $25 to $50
Lets see more input on this thread!
Always Buying & Collecting 1957 Topps Baseball 1914 cj,s 1978 bb and any Hof bb
Always Buying & Collecting 1957 Topps Baseball 1914 cj,s 1978 bb and any Hof bb
Always Buying & Collecting 1957 Topps Baseball 1914 cj,s 1978 bb and any Hof bb