Advice on vintage collecting/investing?

doog71

I buy vintage PSA graded HOFers, mostly because I like 'em, but also as a hopefully good investment to give my kids one day. Pre 1970, what's the lowest PSA grade you'd think is a good buy, ie it'll hold it's value? I'm talking names like Mantle, Mays, Berra, Stargell, etc.

Any thoughts?

helionaut

Probably 7, more likely 8. When it comes to investing, condition sells cards more than anything else. For the very top tier players (Mantle, Ryan, Clemente, Williams, Musial, Mays, maybe Koufax) a nice 7 is probably good. For names like Berra and Stargell, I'd want to get 8 or better. They just aren't as universally coveted. Looking at registry participants, most sets have 8 as the line of demarcation for "serious" collectors (read "moneyed"). Remember, though, that current pricing is based largely on populations driving the market for registry participants. Populations will only go up. Not dramatically so, but up they'll go. So save up your money, be discriminating (not all 8s are made alike), get the best you can afford, but don't go nuts overpaying.

Of course, if you're looking for a solid investment with potential for growth, more traditional vehicles are much better. GE, Coke, Nabisco, land, what have you.

mudflap02

Great post helionaut. Every time I thought of something to say, you said it in the next sentence.

Bottom line - make sure that your cards are somthing that your kids will appreciate. Don't collect by yourself, and on your deathbed dump the cards into his lap and expect him to appreciate that low pop 1957 common or that Gem Mint Mantle. Make it a collective experience, and that way, not only will he collect the cards because they're worth something, but because of the sentimental value they hold. That's why the vast majority of us collect cards in the first place - to take us back to something we identify with. My dad spent maybe 4 or 5 years helping me build a Ryan collection, and that's what drew me back to collecting, not the value of the cards I had.

You may not even have kids now, sh!t I sure don't, but like helio said, if you're looking for a good investment, don't look here. Yes, you may get a good return, but your money is better invested with the guy in the tall building. But it isn't quite as fun as this.

Stone193

Great thread!
I'm not an investor type but I have been hearing from a lot of dealers and collectors that "collector" grade cards - PSA 4-5 range - on the vintage sets 60's and earlier and on the prewar sets especially - that they may have some nice upside potential... down the road since there's just so much high grade and how high will it go?

Does this make any sense to anyone.

Good replies Helio and Mudflap!

your friend
Mike

goudeygold

My opinion... If your purely looking to preserve capital and probably make a little in the end, you should go with pre-war or pre 1948. Look at the set registries and see if you can find a smallish set that isn't loaded with 100% complete sets that average out to a 7 or above. When you find one, try to build it up at the PSA 4 level or above. When you get it completed, you will have something pretty rare. There are not very many 100% complete PSA graded pre-war issues in any grade. Try to realize your budget and realize that virtually any card in a 1 or a 2, or with ink or paper loss will greatly limit their investment quality. Some exceptions are the big boys, like the babe ruths, lou gehrigs, 52 mantle, etc... Also most of the smaller goudey sets have a very high percentage of HOFers, and the sport king set is almost all HOFers in all different sports.

You can try to get raw ones on ebay, but realize they are almost never as nice as you think they will be, and going from a PSA 4 to a PSA 6 is very tough from the 30s and earlier. Due to the card stock, i'm convinced many came from the factory with surface wrinkles that are barely perceptable, but will knock it down to a 4 at best. Chipping is also very common due to the age of the cards. 70+ years old!! Also if a dealer has a nice raw card, you have to ask yourself, if maybe there is a flaw that guarantees a knock down in grade, that may not be readily noticeable. Otherwise, why don't they just send it in?

Keep an eye on what different cards actually sell for graded. You used to be able to pick up GAI for a significant discount over PSA, but in pre-war this is becoming extinct. On some issues (tattoo orbit for example) sell for waaaaaaay over book. A small but significant group came up recently on ebay and a lone PSA 8 (1 of 2) that booked for $165, sold for $1250. I wanted one so bad I bid almost triple SMR on the few 5s that were listed and lost them all. So I scratched that set off my tentative list. The US Caramels are killer as well.

I'm tempted to dable in the T-205s since lower grade ones sell for less than a handful of modern packs sometimes. However this set is sooo big with soo many variations, I would never be satisfied if I had zero chance of completing a set. For the T-205s and 206s I think the PSA 3 level is decent enough. Remember when you get a hoard of these together it is rare in any condition. You never see 100 card lots of graded T-205s in any condition, ever.

Also avoid anything not in a GAI, SGC or PSA holder, and do not value raw for the best grade you think you can get. Always bid a grade lower than it looks and factor in all your fees if you want to sell.

If your looking in the 50s and 60s, the above posts are dead on. You essentially need a 8 to hold value and maybe get some appreciation. I got a PSA 8 1958 common for $9, and I don't think that is that rare of an occurance. Like it or not, the 50s were pretty mass produced. The 52 topps set alone has over 70,000 cards graded already, and tons of raw are on ebay all the time. They aren't "rare" until you get to a PSA 8. The 9s average over a grand for commons. some semi star 9s have sold for around 10,000 bucks but you can buy low grades of the same card all day long for around 10 bucks. The sain error card is much more scarce than most people think, the page error is more plentiful, but still fairly rare.


In the end, you do have to collect something you really like. However, do some research and find a set you think has good prospects for appreciation and start working on it. You'll never make double your investment realistically, atleast not in the next several years barring the continued influx into vintage. Like others said before, if your truely after making money go with stocks. I'm bumping 100% gains in mcdonalds and the gap in under 2 years. But if you want a hobby that isn't just throwing your money away, the more vintage you go the safer you will be. Generally speaking of course.

Let us know what you decide, you can get tons of good info from these boards. glad to see you on the vintage train!!

GG

NickM

Mantle is collectible in any grade. So are most other HOFers, at least in raw cards. For '60s and before, if you're buying at below the average market price for a grade, I don't expect any major HOFer to be a money loser. Be forwarned that PSA 5s and 6s from the '60s sell for less than equivalent raw normally (and SMR is ridiculously high on these). It's a waste of money to get most '60s HOFers graded in less than PSA 7 (and some in less than PSA 8), but if you're buying already graded, there's nothing which should cause then to drop in price.

Nick

goudeygold

As Nick said, the key is the price you pay. If you obviously get the card under market price for it being in above average quality, then your protecting your investment fairly well form the start. Either way, thanks to ebay the playing field for resale is fairly level. when I was a kid you bought the card for 10 bucks, then you sold it back to the dealer for half, so unless the card more than doubled in price you were losing money. Now with ebay, the true market value on cards is much more easily figured out.

best of luck,

GG

softparade

Great reading fellas!

What about my 1978 set? I certainly collect it because I love the cards.What do you guys think of mid-to late 70's sets holding there value? Entirely graded anyway in straight PSA 9 with a few 10's. Will I get back what I put into it if I ever have a financial need to sell? I don't count the un-opened I buy because that is purely for fun. Expendable fun money

goudeygold

Well if you have one of the highest graded sets in existance, I would think you would be fairly safe, but even in the 78 set your looking at what? 600 commons? either way you love it, so hopefully you won't have to sell!!

GG

softparade

yep, its a beast of a set.

It sits in that twilight zone between vintage and the over over produced modern cards

Stone193

I still think for the collector - not talking about dealers:

Invest in stocks, bonds, land etc. and collect for fun and entertainment.

Best story on that - in 1993 Joe D came out with his first auto bat in years - it commemorated the streak from 1941 - so the bats were numbered to 1941 - HSN or QVC had them for 3995$ - a lady called up and ordered two - she referenced investing for her kids colledge education. Right now, I can find them for around 1500$ more than 10 years later!

This is just an opinion and yes, you may make money but....

your friend
Mike

softparade

well, at least I'm not collecting a complete graded 1988 Donruss set My apologies too those who love that set !