poll on future of populations of 1976 set

kennylow

This is specifically about the 1976 set, although I think its an interesting topic for many other sets as well.

Currently, the population in the 1976 topps set is :

PSA 9 12,374 or an average of 18.7 per card
PSA 10 779 or an average of 1.18 per card

In 3 years, what would you expect the number of PSA 9s (for the average card) to be for this set?

A 20-30
B 31-40
C 41-50
D 51-60
E 61 and greater

mikeschmidt

31-40

NickM

I'll say C) 41-50, although I think it will be on the low end of that scale. Vending boxes of this set seem to yield a higher percentage of 9s than any of the surrounding years (with the possible exception of '74). Of course, high pop common 9s are already going for the grading fee or less.

Nick

carew4me

I am looking for a Rod Carew in PSA 9. My goal is $20.

My guess is within 3 months.

jackstraw

since i know a bit about this set i will chime in.
i was 85% before i sold it to a member here. i then started it again mostly sgc but alot of the stars/hof ers were in psa 9 holders.
you will be very lucky if there is a population of 15 or more of the following cards?
#2 bobby bonds rb(impossible to find nice),rennie stennett rb(good luck finding one with full borders and centered),lindblad,winfield(yeah there are 9's out there but if your picky you will not find too many without print and centering problems,luzinski,torre(another 2 that a plagued with short borders and printing problems) simmons (i doubt a mint and centered copy exists) willie horton,joe rudi(good luck on them if your picky because i have never seen a horton that i liked) there are a few other commons that will just kick your tail all over the card scene before you get a nice copy!lefty grove is terrible and you will look high and low for that card and then when you find one you will wonder why cy young didn't make this set?good luck finding a psa 9 carew for 20 bucks?

bobbybakeriv

Interesting thoughts. Still, I don't think you'll find a PSA 9 Carew for $20 anytime soon.....I'll pay at least $21!

carew4me

Agreed.

I should have put $20-30. Because I would pull the trigger at $30.

I know I wont pay more than that.

Reason: mid -late 70's will continue to drop for all of the obvious reasons. There is no upside to a PSA 9.
If higher grading fee's stem submissions I think that will be countered buy a grading special.

Not to mention the potential for an SGC 92-96 being crossed over. But thats not worth the effort or risk.

kennylow

I think this is an interesting question because there are two conflicting variables working here.

If more cards are graded PSA 9, then the supply will outstrip the demand, and the price will go down. but 1976 Topps PSA 9 cards are perilously close to the PSA grading fee, that if the price goes down too much, there won't be any new supply as it won't be worth it for the sellers to get these cards graded. So its a wierd cycle...an example of a card like Sparky Lyle - a common, but a Yankee, so there is some demand (using hypothetical numbers) :

10 PSA 9s gets graded, and when they hit ebay, there is interest. Yankee fans, 1976 Topps set builders go after the card. Price maybe settles around $25.

Arbitrageurs see this price and decide they should add in the semi-star and Yankee cards to their 1976 Topp submissions along with the Roses, Reggies and Ryans.

After a while, the number of PSA 9s increase to 20 for Sparky. The guys who were interested in this card mostly have it already...price goes down to $15 or so. Still more cards get graded, and the pop goes up to 30...now the price settles in around $10...barely worth it to get it graded.

A few more and the pop goes up to 35/40, and now the price of the card settles in the $6-$12 range, depending on how lucky the seller is. At this point, these guys decide its not worthwhile to get these cards graded anymore...so they stop sending them to PSA, except for the rare card that they may think has a chance of a 10.

So the low supply of the card has increased the price of the card in the beginning. But as the price was high, the supply increased, and then the price decreased....but then with the price decrease, the supply stays stable as there is no value in increasing supply.

So after a while, its not worth getting these cards graded at all as there is no profit to be made.

With an average pop of 18...I think its getting close to that area now where it won't be worth it at all to grade commons. The stars will always be graded, but not the commons except for the few that have very low pops (but those by definition are tough to find in good grades to begin with). So my answer to my own question is I think it will settle in the B : 31-40 area...because sellers will soon stop submitting.

jackstraw - thanks for the notes on the tough cards.

helionaut

In 3 years? I think the average will be "B 31-40." But that's the mean. What will the median be? What is it now? That is, there aren't 18.7 9s for each card. There are likely some under 5 and some over 50. If you sorted the population by quantity, what is the population of cards ranked #330 and #331?

In many sets there are some cards that you can't help but get 9s. Other cards are all but impossible. A good question would be "What is the pop of the lowest pop?"

mikeschmidt

Kenny:

A few comments:

A) You assume collectors/dealers behave rationally. Many don't. I know that I do not for many of my Mike Schmidt cards.

Populations will always rise. It is the pace of rising that will dictate future supply increases.

C) There is still now significant money in 10s. If smart/sophisticated/picky collectors and dealers can segregate out a submission so that they get a few 10s that make profit, get some 9s that make back the grading fee, and some 8s that don't - they might still come out ahead.

D) Many modern set collections are pretty cyclical in nature. When PSA 9 prices approach the grading fee, the submissions generally slow down from dealers, and collectors. However, all you need is one or two more set collectors in the mix to bring back some limited demand that might increase submissions again.

~ms

kennylow

mr. schmidt :

good comments, thanks.


helio :
the median is is 15
there are 63 cards in the set (about 10%) with PSA 9 pops of 5 or lower and exactly 2 cards with only 1 PSA 9 in the pop (Johnny Briggs & Al Cowens). There is only 1 card with greater than 100 PSA 9s (Robin Yount).
there are 20 cards with pops of 50 or greater.