Sell Now, or Hold on For The Long Run

nateluck

Hello all,

This is my first post on these boards, but I've been reading them for weeks. I'm anxious to join you folks in some great discussions. I enjoy reading what everyone has to say, and I've really learned a lot.

So here's my question...

I'm only 20 years old, and I've just started getting into vintage cards (graded). My first purchase was a '54 Aaron PSA 6. With the high costs of these amazing cards from back in the day, I think I need to re-evaluate some of my newer stuff. I need some expert opinions, so anything input you guys have would be greatly appreciated.

I've got some newer rookies that are by no means outstanding. Just for example, I have a few McGwire '85 Topps with grades from BGS ranging from 7 to 8, some 95 Bowman's Best Rookies of Guerrero, Rolen, and A. Jones with grades of 9, and a Troy Glaus '98 Bow. Chrome 9.5. I'm debating on whether or not I should sell these--and more cards of a similar caliber--right now, or hold on to them for a long-run investment. I really enjoyed getting that Aaron card and was thinking that it might be best for me to sell my lower-end material, and take that cash to put towards some more older stuff.

I also have the same problem with a very large Starting Lineup collection that I'm kicking myself for now. The money I spent!! And now realizing what I could've had nags me all the time!

So the bottom line is, is this stuff worth holding on to, or should I be doing whatever I can to acquire more vintage items?

Thanks for reading,
Christian

Stone193

Hi Christian
Welcome - that's two new people this evening!
Ya know that is a hard question and no one has a crystal ball. My gut tells me that all the stuff from 1980 on is more than plentiful and unless it is in the highest grade, will not fund your retirement villa on the Riviera.
My next point will make a lot of people crazy - I think collecting for fun AND profit are mutually exclusive events. Once one starts worrying about long term return, the fun gets sucked out of it IMO. Now, there are some speculators here who love to buy low and sell high in the RC arena but that's work for me.
Sorry I don't have the definitive word on this but I collect for fun and really enjoy the hunt.

Good luck
your friend
Mike

A761506

Hi Christian... welcome... many people on here will tell you that much of the newer stuff may not hold it's value in the future, especially almost anything produced during the 80's or 90's that was printed in huge volumes, as well as when the grading craze wears off and people realize there's practically no difference between a BGS 9.5 and a 9.0.

Your Aaron rookie is a valuable card, there weren't a million of them produced originally, and Aaron is and always will be legendary during your lifetime. You can find tons of 85 McGwire rookies available at any time on eBay, but 54 Aaron's only come around once or twice a month in PSA 6 or better. If you were short on cash and wanted a vintage card rather than the new stuff, dump the new stuff and hopefully you'll have enough cash to get a nice vintage card.

pandrews

hang on to the Starting Lineups. In my opinion, those things are cool! and the value of them seems to be really really low right now. I have alot of them, and there is no way i'll sell mine for what they're going for.

sagard

You can buy and sell the McGwires anytime. The "newer" stars should be sold when they are playing. Not in the off season, not when they are hurt. They really won't garner you that much money (compared to the cost of your Aaron RC) at any point, so if you like the cards you may as well keep them. Otherwise, sell 'em off during the season.

ctsoxfan

I tend to agree with Mike's points above. I collect for fun first and foremost, and while it's nice if your collection holds (or increases) in value, you shouldn't count on it. Invest in investments, have fun with cards. Having said that, I would think with the exception of a few select rookies from post 1980, that pre 1980 is a far better bet to appreciate. 1972 and back for certain.

goudeygold

Pre-war is where alot of the action is nowadays. Many times the entire POP reports for entire sets are less then the POP reports of single modern cards. I wouldn't touch ANYTHING after 75, and the cost of building a graded 500+ card set from any year won't be worth it after grading fees. My rec is to pic a set you really like pre 48 and slowly build it up. Some sets are around 30 cards, and few are more than 150 total. It will take time but in the end you will have something special. Plus when you sell, it is a virtual certainty to appreciate. The vintage market bottomed in the late 80s/90s and is building back up slowly and surely. check the POP reports and you will see what I mean. It is really something to feel a awesome conditioned raw card from the 30s then send it in to be preserved and graded. Plus it just blows me away thinking these cards made it through wars, attic cleanouts, then saved for so many decades and now you can buy them sometimes in lesser condition than the cost of a single new pack of crap.

I think the starting lineup fad is over. I never see them at shows anymore and except for the rarest of the rare, there doesn't seem to be much interest. But you may be better off just holding onto them. who knows down the road?!

Welcome to the boards,

GG

MajorDanby

Welcome aboard! I got a aaron rookie a few months ago...and it was mighty nice to to display it in my bookcase.

First, understand what youre interested in. It seems like you're heading into the vintage direction...so, sell all modern cards that dont have any real value to you with the following exception:

Hot, young stars like guerrero, pujols and arod do carry a lot of value. A lot of their cards have been overproduced, but that doesnt mean it cant go up in value. Look at mcgwire and sosa. Look at bonds. So, perhaps you can take a gamble and keep the rookies of players today who might break the 500 homerun barrier...who might hit .400...who might get into the hall of fame. A few years ago, you could have nabbed a bonds rookie for 2 to 3 times less than today. Arod, at the pace he's going, might follow suit. As will guerrero, pujols and other top stars who are hitting homeruns at an incredible rate.

Besides that, keep cards of players who have some sort of value beyond the monetary. I relinquished my modern collection, but kept all my maddux, chipper jones and a few mike piazza items. Why? Because i enjoyed watching these players when i was growing up. Their monetary value is rather minimal in today's market, but i kept them anyway because they had value beyond money and dollars.

Enjoy your trek through vintage cards. Keep in mind...focus is always good...especially if youre on a tight budget. When i came back, i started spending a lot of dough on vintage cards that i liked, but not to the point where they had meaning to me beyond its perceived "coolness." Although i am still trying to narrow my focus, today i have a better idea of what i want to collect.

nateluck

Thanks everyone for responding. I appreciate everyone's opinions, they were all enlightening.

--Christian
"A Newbie"

jskirwin

Youngster
Just a note that when I was about your age I was leaving the country and asked my older brother to sell my baseball cards for me. He said no problem. 15 years later he handed them back to me and I was so freakin' happy. He's a pretty smart guy for being my older brother.
I guess this means that I would recommend you collect whatever the hell strikes your fancy. If you like vintage, buy vintage. New stuff? Buy new stuff.

Just don't sell anything. Give the cards to your older brother for safekeeping if necessary. Just don't sell.

You want to invest your money, buy blue-chip stocks through a mutual fund. Collect cards for the love of the game and a connection to your youth that no one can ever take away from you. In a generation you can then pass them on to your kids.

jayhawke

Welcome. I have nothing to add. It has been said above. Some good advice.

Love of the Game

Welcome to the boards. I hope you find them as warm and welcoming as I have.

I guess it depends on what your question really is. If your question is "what should I collect?", well, others have said it: collect what you like.

If your question is "I like everything. What should I collect that has the best chance of holding it's value?", then the answer is different.

However, the answer is simple.

Yesterday, I posted a thread on these boards called "A stroll down memory lane". It contained some card prices I dug up from a 1981 issue of Baseball Cards Magazine. Nolan Ryan rookies for $10, just a little over twenty years ago.

At the same time, ask anyone who collected modern cards in the late 1980s how many Kevin Seitzer rookie cards they hoarded, and how much they're worth today. In my opinion, modern cards are overproduced, there are too many different brands to tell which one is going to be the one that best holds its value, and there's too much hype over hot rookies that will never be superstars. And it even goes beyond speculating on guys like Brien Taylor and Todd Van Poppel, who never make the majors - it even continues on for long after the guys are in the big leagues. Look at Albert Belle, Juan Gonzalez, Bobby Bonilla, Bo Jackson, Roberto Alomar, Charles Johnson, Kenny Lofton, or any other of a host of quality players who have card prices that have taken a nosedive in recent years. Think of the 1991 Upper Deck Hank Aaron hologram, that once sold for $40 or $50, but now can be found for a buck or two.

At the same time, your Hank Aaron rookie will always be a Hank Aaron rookie. The supply of those cards - in any grade - diminishes every year, as available cards are destroyed (!) or taken out of circulation by collectors who will never sell them. And history has already determined Hank Aaron's place among the legends of all time.

I don't think there is any question about it. But whichever direction you choose, enjoy this awesome hobby!

-Al