A once scarce coin now is "common," why the high prices?

RGL

The 1973-S Jeff once was scarce in 69 DCAM. Now, however, a flood of submissions has more than quadrupled the once pop. There are now 471 in PR-69 DCAM, yet they continue to sell for about $70 a pop. I don't want to pay that much for a common. What's driving this? Pent-up demand?

Fairlaneman

Pent up demand. Thats it.....

wondercoin

IMHO, the "trick" is to buy the 1973(s) nickel as part of the (33) coin date run of PCGS-PR69DCAM Jeffs that appear on Teletrade nearly every auction. The (33) coins generally sell for around $250-$300 plus 10% buyers fee. That breaks down to around $9/coin for all the different PR69DC Jeffs including the 1973(s). Indeed, another (33) coin date run appears on Teletrade tonight (and tomorrow night). If you assume the 73(s) nickel to be a $60 or $70 coin (perhaps a bad assumption when considering the price of the 33 coin sets) - that leaves (32) coins at around $7.50 each (less than the lowest bulk dealer price for PR69DC grading I am aware of for these, not to mention the cost of the (32) proof nickels)!

I have never sold a single date run set of PR69DC Jeffs, but, if a collector came to me to want to buy a 1973(s) or 1974(s) Jeff, I would certainly suggest he consider the (33) coin option.

Wondercoin

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

Perhaps too many numismorons ?

Stewart

Fairlaneman

<< <i>Perhaps too many numismorons ? >>



Say this is not so. A Pop of 491 equates to about a 10 buck, maybe 15, coin where I play. Man the fall will be hard for some.

RGL

Unfortunately, I don't want to do the trick ... my date run is complete and I only need a few upgrades ...

badger

The value to this thread is the education. Nothing sours a collector like getting burned. They end telling two people who tell two people. It's better for the hobby/business if people make informed decisions.

FullStepJeffs

IMHO, part of this price is primarily due to previous coin sales prices. If a 1973 PF69DCAM is selling on Teletrade, Heritage or others for $50 - $80... then, I think the potential buyers see that and figure that is a good price. A couple of years ago, before the increase in pop, these things were selling for $250 plus... then the pop increase came and the bottom dropped out. The 74 and 75 used to be higher prices and now sell for cheap money. 72's are where the $ goes over $100 on average... these days.

I'm glad that the pops finally went through the roof for these dates... sooner or later, it had to happen.

Overall... I think you just need to wait if you're just looking for the 73... the price has come down and will continue to drop... just give it some time.

Hope this helps!

Steve

Edited to add... This 1973 PF69DCAM proves my point... I think,

rainbowroosie

Wondercoin, a cool answer!

wondercoin

"Wondercoin, a cool answer!"

RR: Thanks. And, a few readers might have seen the "trick" as the date run is already bid up to $330 with buyers fee today in the TT sale (a whopping $10/coin now for them all).

In any event, this simply demonstrates, once again, what a small amount of knowledge can do for the average collector (in moderns or classics - makes no difference). No need to pay $70/coin for this, $40/coin for that and $20/coin for so and so when you can simply buy them all at $9 or $10/coin, cherry-pick what you desire from the lot and dump the rest on ebay. Again, just another example of building a nice set on a budget with a little effort.

Wondercoin

FoundingFather

Is the risk of buying a low-pop coin always factored into the current prices of modern coins, or is it widely believed that most of these "low-pop moderns" will eventually be a higher pop due to unrealized submissions over time?

FullStepJeffs

<< <i>Is the risk of buying a low-pop coin always factored into the current prices of modern coins, or is it widely believed that most of these "low-pop moderns" will eventually be a higher pop due to unrealized submissions over time? >>





In one short answer... NO... it isn't factored in. Many low pop coins go for some serious (if it were from my wallet) dollars, at least in Jeffersons. I've passed on many of the coins listed in my want list below because the price was too high or the coin didn't look right (except for the Full Step rarities from the early dates which I still haven't seen). Before the pop explosions in the early 70's proofs, some of those dates (71-S in 69DCAM were $1500 to $2000 each when there were 3 graded)... Then the pop went to 28 and the price went to an average (via Auction) of $576.94 for the last 13 coins sold (I saw).

I agree with Wondercoin about buying the set, if that's what your looking for... but, I've already added to my last post which hopefully shows these coins will come down eventually.

I hope this helps!

Steve

FoundingFather

Thanks, FullStepJeffs.

Dear Wondercoin -- my ancient foe, my arch nemisis. Are you still pumping the "great investment and sure-to-climb values" of low-pop extra-minty pocket change? Are you still defending my old assertion that the fundamentals upon which those coins rest upon is weaker than you used to come off in your "innocent advertisement posts?" I haven't lurked in this part of the Forums in a while, so let me know if you have been behaving and giving proper guidance on the underlying factors related to the subject of this thread.

cladking

<< <i>

...Are you still pumping the "great investment and sure-to-climb values" of low-pop extra-minty pocket change? Are you still defending my old assertion that the fundamentals upon which those coins rest upon is weaker than you used to come off in your "innocent advertisement posts?" . >>



Proof coins were not made for circulation so are not "pocket change".

"Extra minty pocket change" is still being collected after many centuries
which seems to surprise an inordinate number of coin collectors. The
fundamentals of value for all such pocket change has hardly undergone
any real transformation in all this time.

FoundingFather

Cladking, proof coins aside, are you saying that modern mass-produced coins in mint condition are not going for incredibly unprecedented levels relative to historical performance? I do see the fundamentals having changed. I see an unprecedented level of money being spent, per new coin, on small grading differences.

cladking

<< <i>Cladking, proof coins aside, are you saying that modern mass-produced coins in mint condition are not going for incredibly unprecedented levels relative to historical performance? I do see the fundamentals having changed. I see an unprecedented level of money being spent, per new coin, on small grading differences. >>



No. Not at all.

They are going for incredibly high valuations relative to historical performance. For this reason
it might be wise for investors and speculators to avoid them, but by the same token there are
many which still sell for a tiny fraction of a comparably rare old coin which makes them ideal for
collectors who have some interest in them and some knowledgeable speculators.

FoundingFather

When you say "still sell for a tiny fraction of a comparably rare old coin" are you equating condition rarity of moderns with the population rarity of older coins?

cladking

<< <i>When you say "still sell for a tiny fraction of a comparably rare old coin" are you equating condition rarity of moderns with the population rarity of older coins? >>



Either way. A rare modern will sell for a fraction of an equally rare classic and
a condition rare modern will sell for a small fraction of an equally rare condition
rare classic. Of course all rare moderns are not regular issue so the comparison
to classics may be apples and oranges.

And, of course, this isn't true in all cases but there is a strong tendency to it.

FoundingFather

Thanks for the responses, Clad.

keets

hey Randy

don't take this the wrong way, but instead of complaining about the price of a "made" coin, why don't you just make your own?? they aren't that hard to find. as a matter of fact, i made two back in February/March of 2003, just prior to the flood, when it was a pop 31 coin and even offered one to you at $175, remember?? though you should have snapped at that good price, it's turned out that your passing was the better call!!! i eventually sold it to another member.

if you're really having trouble locating a raw 1973 that will holder at 69DCAM, just PM you're address and i'll send you some coins for free as i find them. i might even have a couple in boxes. also, they should be found at most average size shows nice enough that you should be able to find one. do the smart thing and accept my help, it the least i can do for fellow buckeye!!!

as far as the price, it's a demand thing, much like the silver dates in 66FS that are pop 200-300+++. they are $20 coins but easily sell for more than that.

al h.

FullStepJeffs

what about for Texans?