Opinion thread - What's Hot and what's NOT? What do you make of the market, TODAY?
Boom
Posts: 10,165 ✭
I'm just curious about other collectors' / dealers' perceptions. What's HOT, what's NOT, what's the status of the market TODAY,
in YOUR eyes? Thanks in advance for any and all input.
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What is going to be hot: Buffalo nickel (new)
-g
I'd give you the world, just because...
Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ...
and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
Hot (Will be) Marine Corps Commemorative
I picked up an 1828-50C Curl Base 2 at the bullet sale, paid $690 for an Anacs XF 45. OUCH, a variety I needed, but I guess no price breaks this year. Several other Bust halves I bid on in the other parts of the Fun Auction went to someone else. I set my bids at 10% to 15% above Full Retail and still lost them all.
It seems we have a lot of data and opinions coming in from last week’s show, and auctions, none of it good from a buyer’s point of view.
As we discussed in a thread a few weeks ago most good quality, and rarer, coins have now exceeded their 1989 Bubble highs, even adjusted for inflation, so in many areas we are breaking new ground.
Here is a link to a great site I use to look at past coin prices compared to now.
http://westegg.com/inflation/
Perhaps someone can give us a hot link. I have checked out this site and it is fairly accurate. You can put the price of any coin in and the year you bought it, or 1989 prices for example, and it will give you the price today adjusted just for inflation. Currently it only calculates inflation to the end of 2003 but it should be corrected to 2004 in a few weeks.
From lots of the opinions so far expressed about the start of the year it appears that it will again be a pricey one.
It also appears that those of us, including myself, that thought we might see a separation in the markets between higher-grade rare coins, and lower grade rare coins, were wishing in the wind. This does not appear to be happening.
It is funny how your mind works if you have been in the market buying fairly aggressively the last couple of years. Part of you is saying hey this might just be the beginning, I mean we are without doubt entering into an inflationary cycle. Part of you is saying, WHOA these prices are out of site and cannot last.
However, I see an equilibrium coming between supply and demand on percieved scarcer dates that really are not scarce at all. (so called generic key dates). The higher prices have brought out a lot of key-dates like 16 SLQ quarters, 32-d .25's, 09s vdb's, 77 indian's etc etc. I see the early sighns of demand being met by lots of available supply for many of these coins. Eventually the dates that have an overabundance of supply may have to be discounted to move them quickly. This could affect dealer buying prices substantially.
jim
Example - I recently won an eBay coin - a rare die variety half dollar - for $900 or so. If the underbidder hadn't bid - or if I hadn't bid - either of us would have had the coin for $300 or so. In this case, a second strong bidder affected the price by 3x.
To answer the original question... I think early US coins in choice condition are "hot" and will continue to be so as long as the general market is healthy.
Key date Buffalo nickels remain hot. Common date Buffalos are not.
the rare varieties cost half again to two or three times as much.
you can't touch a nice draped dime or half dime for anywhere near "ask"
Draped halves are still available because there are more of them, but they're strong too,
esp any 1801 or 1802, any attractive DB in VF and up, and R5 and up marriages in any condition.
they'll sell just fine raw, and generally get even better prices certified.
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K S