Wouldn't it be great if ...

badger

in order to show increase auction sales, they got everyone to sell their collections all at once. It would set new records and show a robust market. But,,, if I haven't sold mine yet, how am I going to buy yours. Plus, I dont know your series. Do you know mine? pricing? key dates? varieties? buyers? sellers?

The only way to keep this going is to build an expanded collector base. The outreach programs and local collector clubs can help. But, the increase in collectors at the base seems to be growing slower than the pricing.

How can we expand the collector base?

Coppernicus

First, a fair amount of buying is done by "investors" not collectors. When gold & silver move up and the rare coin market is hot, it attracts a lot of non-numismatic capital. Such is the case right now, IMHO.

To expand the collector base, we need to expose more young people to the hobby. My club's YN events try to do this. Also, Boy Scout merit badges, presentations in grade schools on "career days", etc. can help in this. I also believe we will see a lagged effect from the state quarter program.

However, let's face it, look at the typical picture in any coin publication and what do you see? A bunch of old white men. The hobby will never die, but we need to encourage new interest to help it grow.

Mike

construct

Don't you think that the heating up of the common-date circulated Barber and Seated coinage might be an expansion of the statehood quarter collectors? It's remarkable to me how scarce no-problem examples of these types of coins have become over the last couple of years. I would hardly consider these to be "investor" coins.

Coppernicus

construct - Yes, in those series I agree with you. Plus, many baby boomers are getting back into collecting (like me about 5 years ago). I think the Statehood quarters will spark interest in a lot of other areas, but the big investment money only comes in in "hot" markets and/or in rising precious metals markets. We have both right now, I believe. Couple that with a so-so stock market and there's a lot of capital looking for a place to go.

Mike

construct

So that's why we've seen a doubling in price on unc. 1928 Peace dollars, for example. I see. That's the reason the key dates have become so scary in their pricing. And I guess that also supports an increase in commodity gold--Saints and Libs in 60-62. Still commodity unc. Morgans aren't up that much. I bought some BU Morgans last week for $18 a piece. Key dates and gold--I agree.

Do you suppose the current pricing on key dates is a bubble that might burst? Or do you expect them to reach a plateau and stablize?

Coppernicus

<< <i>Do you suppose the current pricing on key dates is a bubble that might burst? Or do you expect them to reach a plateau and stablize? >>



It's a bubble, but very early in the game, IMHO. The baby boomers love to try to recapture their childhood and coin collecting is one of those pursuits, especially the Lincoln Cents! I think the market will hold up at least until after 2009, the 100th anniversary of the Linc.

As far as other series go, I'm not as sure. If the stock market gets rolling like in the late '90's, coin prices will suffer, even the keys. Barring that though, I expect a strong coin market for at least 5-10 more years or so - that's when many BB's will start liquidating their collections.

The economic impact of the BB's has consistently been underestimated in all sorts of ways, e.g. social security, real estate, politics, and yes, even collectibles.

Mike

construct

That's sort of what I suspected. Though I have found some disagreement among my dealer friends. I admit I hadn't considered the Lincolns specifically, though. Thanks for your opinion. It really confirms my thoughts rather closely.

Conder101

<< <i>in order to show increase auction sales, they got everyone to sell their collections all at once. It would set new records and show a robust market. >>


But if EVERYONE is selling . ., .Who's buying? And if everyone is selling and no one is buying, rather than a robust market you'll see sharply falling prices.

jonesor

i agree with condor.... when supply rises ahead of demand, prices fall

islemangu

there's a lot of capital looking for a place to go can see your point on Lincolns.. this is a hobby and hopefully not becoming another belled market for shouters