2004 Mint Sets

TerrapinWill

We have seen the dramatic rise of the 2004 Clad Proof Sets, and who knows how far they will go. I have also heard othe rpeople say that the 2004 Silver Proof Sets may also rise in the near future, once they sell out from the mint. I find it very surprising that the mint hasnt sold out of the first 11 Coin Silver Proof Set, and that the 2004 Clad set is currently worth more than 2004 Silver Proof Set.
But the real question is what is the potential for the 2004 Mint Sets, that are supposedly the lowest mintage since 1960. I have heard that many of these sets have been broken up for indivdual coins, and as a result, the complete set is likely to continue to rise. What should I believe about all this.
Please share your opinions, I am very new to all this and find this quite confusing.

cladking

Historically most modern mint products have been purchased by those outside or on the fringes
of the mainstream hobby. These have been made in huge quantity and are usually retained by
the original purchaser for years or sold in the first year or two for profit. This has been less true
in recent years for a number of reasons.

Mintages are sufficient to satisfy the demand for the singles and sets but there is a lot of demand
for sets at the current time and not enough have been made available to the market to meet this
demand. Part of the reason they aren't available is the perception among owners that the prices
will increase so they are holding out for better prices.

Many mint sets are bought by people trying to keep their sets current and these will be disassembled
as soon as thy are bought. There are also companies which cut these sets but the total value of the
coins in these late date sets is far under the value of the intact set. It is so difficult to get a premium
for the coins that few sets will be destroyed by companies. Some might believe that the slabbing of
high grade coins will result in large numbers of sets being destroyed but look at the numbers. Only
a tiny percentage of sets will include any coins worth slabbing. Even if a company has 10,000 sets
only a handfull are more valuable slabbed. There is far more demand for the proof singles and these
are destroyed in much larger percentages for commerce.

There are a growing number of people who collect intact mint and proof sets but it is still a very small
number and their demand will be easily met. Ultimately the price of the set will be determined by the
combined value of the coins in the set. At some point it is entirely possible that there will be a premium
returning to intact sets because of demand but at the current time there is a growing discount for most
sets.