Using the Philly FED to track coins - Anxious Index

roadrunner

Here's a link to an article by the Hussman Funds concerning something called the "anxious index." Basically it is a survey performed by a group of professional economists each quarter to determine the % likelihood that GNP will fall in the following quarter.
The widely accepted definition of a recession is 2 consecutive Qtrs
of declining GNP. And over the past 35 years, coin prices have gone down during the start of recessions. So this index may have some validity in keeping one informed of where the coin market is trending. Note that when the % starts to reach 20-30% the chances of a recession are improving. At 40% or higher a recession has likely started. Another tool that may came in handy at times.
For what it's worth, the index shows a smooth start for 2005.

Anxious Index Article with Index

You can also go directly to the Philadelphia FED site to see the current index whenever you want. A link to the chart appears
at the end of the article.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Board Anxious Index


roadrunner

tradedollarnut

Ahhh, yes - but does it predict or merely report?

MrEureka

but does it predict or merely report?

Depends on whether the polled "forecasters" are better at forecasting than the general population.

roadrunner

I'd say it tends to predict or at least report the CURRENT state.
The report is issued to determine the next quarter's GNP % change, so that is forward looking. Usually reports of a recession occur far after the deed has commenced. These forecasters aren't the usual talking heads on CNBC so I'd give their reports more validity than the usual Crudlowe and Krapper stuff. I think looking at the chart's track record shows that it can be used effectively before every Tom, Dick, and Sally is aware. I would have liked to have known in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 1990 or even by the 4th qtr that the gig was essentially up in the coin market.

Andy, here's another link with an interesting paragraph a 3rd of the way down about the Rothschilds. Give them control of the nation's money and they control the nation. They were instrumental in the creation of the FED....and I would suspect still major share holders in the operation.

Money and the Rothschilds

roadrunner