<< <i>OK, well when gold dips below $400 later this month I will be bringing this thread back up again. >>
Cool, Roadrunner and I will both be waiting with anticipation.
Each to his own, but I've done very well going both short and long on precious metals. You win some, you lose some. If you are lucky, and luck is often the residue of design, and do your research you will win more often than not.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Nonsense. You can not predict when large reserves will hit the market, as has happend a couple of times this week. There are some reserves in Europe that are rumored to be getting ready to dump on the market. Playing gold long or short is just not very wise, unless it is a small part of an overall investment portfolio. For someone to invest all their money into one thing, and especially gold right now, is asking for disaster. You read it here first, I predict gold will be near $350 by spring.
Being a little guy, I cannot predict anything the big boys do. I can, however, try to catch trends and grab on to a coat tail here and there. You can look at charts over the last 20 years and see trends that replicate themselves on an annual basis.
I've done pretty well at it so far for the last few years. That much is fact.
Who said anything about investing all my money, or even a significant portion? I see this dip as a shot at a quick turn, much larger upside than down. Same with silver currently. Having a hard time even finding many 100 oz bars around town these days. I did grab 20 of them last week though. I plan on holding them for awhile.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Of course I'll respond, so will Roadrunner. I spent most of last fall wanting a drop so I could add more to the hoard, anyway.
I've already stood up on this issue many times before. When I make a big hit, I don't bring previous threads up to remind the naysayers, though.
No problem, you win some, you lose some. I'll come out ahead in the big picture. I didn't always feel that way, but over time I've come to be comfortable with it.
It's just a matter of not overstepping your limits, hedging your bets, etc. It can be done. If you are afraid of the risk, you shouldn't be doing it. But I do believe the upside is far greater then the downside. Again, you have to have your limits. Some folks don't have the personality for it, some do.
I'm fortunate in that I can afford to lose if it comes to that, I don't think it will, but I don't have ulcers over it either. I didn't step into it without a great deal of research, a great deal. Kind of like a four year degree wrapped up into 15 months of study.
BTW, if Gold fell to $350 and Silver to $5, I'd still be ahead of the game with my long term holdings.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Now come on, gold traded at well under $300 for years and at $418 you say there is no downside? There is plenty of downside, and to be exact about $100 an ounce downside. If you're playing with 20 ounces or more, that's significant.
I was referring to my long held holdings only. Of course my current holding would be a loss. I wouldn't hold them that long and as I said, I don't have all my eggs in just the one basket.
I would sell off much earlier than that sort of drop and I'd still be ahead of the game regardless.
Time will tell, as it always does. I'm not too worried, actually not worried at all. In fact, I'm quite content right now. The trends on the world financial picture don't portend the sort of things you are talking about. Certainly not in the next couple of years anyway.
No, I don't consider 20 ounces of gold to be significant. As I said, I just picked up 25 ounces and I don't consider it to be a big deal. I was just happy to find it at such a nice flat price. I'll probably turn it over in 30 days, anyway. Doesn't matter to me if I hold it 90 days, it might be such that I'll be happy to keep it alot longer, you never know. That's the way it works. People pay more than that for nice coins all the time and they don't always win there either.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Yes, Deadhorse and I will be here regardless of where gold or coins go. Long before gold came off it's $456 I stated that at any time in this bull run gold could lose half its value, just like that. It happened in the 1970's and will probably happen again. Reversals like that will shake out many weak hands and have the CNN pundits proclaiming the gold bull "dead." We could be in the first one right now. But if not, there is one coming on the way to $500 or $600 or even $1000. Unfortunately the gold bull won't be dead yet, just continuing an inevitable course to balance out the world's currency mess.
As far as stating that its irresponsible to recommend gold because it has gone up 75% in price, it is just as irresponsible, if not more so, to recommend stocks, coins, art, etc. that has doubled and quadrupled in price. Yet you don't see anyone being bashed in public forums or newspapers for recommending such "investments." All those future buyers of the Hugon Barbers better be told that they are being severely "irresponsible." I'll bet the new Brasher's owner will be just as "irresponsible." But really, the only irresponsible thing being done is continuing the love affair with paper currency backed by nothing. And bankrupting one's country buy spending well beyond one's means. That is truly irresponsible. That's where gold comes in.
Obviously one of us will be wrong. First one to either $300 gold or $500 gold gets to gloat.
Comments
<< <i>OK, well when gold dips below $400 later this month I will be bringing this thread back up again. >>
Cool, Roadrunner and I will both be waiting with anticipation.
Each to his own, but I've done very well going both short and long on precious metals. You win some, you lose some. If you are lucky, and luck is often the residue of design, and do your research you will win more often than not.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I've done pretty well at it so far for the last few years. That much is fact.
Who said anything about investing all my money, or even a significant portion? I see this dip as a shot at a quick turn, much larger upside than down. Same with silver currently. Having a hard time even finding many 100 oz bars around town these days. I did grab 20 of them last week though. I plan on holding them for awhile.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I've already stood up on this issue many times before. When I make a big hit, I don't bring previous threads up to remind the naysayers, though.
No problem, you win some, you lose some. I'll come out ahead in the big picture. I didn't always feel that way, but over time I've come to be comfortable with it.
It's just a matter of not overstepping your limits, hedging your bets, etc. It can be done. If you are afraid of the risk, you shouldn't be doing it. But I do believe the upside is far greater then the downside. Again, you have to have your limits. Some folks don't have the personality for it, some do.
I'm fortunate in that I can afford to lose if it comes to that, I don't think it will, but I don't have ulcers over it either. I didn't step into it without a great deal of research, a great deal. Kind of like a four year degree wrapped up into 15 months of study.
BTW, if Gold fell to $350 and Silver to $5, I'd still be ahead of the game with my long term holdings.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I was referring to my long held holdings only. Of course my current holding would be a loss. I wouldn't hold them that long and as I said, I don't have all my eggs in just the one basket.
I would sell off much earlier than that sort of drop and I'd still be ahead of the game regardless.
Time will tell, as it always does. I'm not too worried, actually not worried at all. In fact, I'm quite content right now. The trends on the world financial picture don't portend the sort of things you are talking about. Certainly not in the next couple of years anyway.
No, I don't consider 20 ounces of gold to be significant. As I said, I just picked up 25 ounces and I don't consider it to be a big deal. I was just happy to find it at such a nice flat price. I'll probably turn it over in 30 days, anyway. Doesn't matter to me if I hold it 90 days, it might be such that I'll be happy to keep it alot longer, you never know. That's the way it works. People pay more than that for nice coins all the time and they don't always win there either.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
As far as stating that its irresponsible to recommend gold because it has gone up 75% in price, it is just as irresponsible, if not more so, to recommend stocks, coins, art, etc. that has doubled and quadrupled in price. Yet you don't see anyone being bashed in public forums or newspapers for recommending such "investments."
All those future buyers of the Hugon Barbers better be told that they are being severely "irresponsible." I'll bet the new Brasher's owner will be just as "irresponsible." But really, the only irresponsible thing being done is continuing the love affair with paper currency backed by nothing. And bankrupting one's country buy spending well beyond one's means. That is truly irresponsible.
That's where gold comes in.
Obviously one of us will be wrong. First one to either $300 gold or $500 gold gets to gloat.
roadrunner
I do much better if I average UP and don't average down.
Magic, isn't it?