1973 OPC Schmidt question
jrdolan
Posts: 2,549 ✭✭
PSA has graded 2,216 Topps Schmidt rookies, 609 of them PSA 8. Doesn't exactly seem like a short-print, which many people call it, but that's another story.
PSA has graded 107 OPC Schmidt rookies, 33 of them PSA 8. It seems that 1973 OPC Schmidt is 20 times scarcer than Topps, which is in line with estimates that OPC's production was only about 5% of Topps in the early 1970s.
So my question is, what's the market these days for an OPC Schmidt rookie? Is the collector base 20x smaller than for the Topps version, and thus would sell for about the same? My sense tells me that just ain't right, but I guess it comes down to supply and demand.
PSA has graded 107 OPC Schmidt rookies, 33 of them PSA 8. It seems that 1973 OPC Schmidt is 20 times scarcer than Topps, which is in line with estimates that OPC's production was only about 5% of Topps in the early 1970s.
So my question is, what's the market these days for an OPC Schmidt rookie? Is the collector base 20x smaller than for the Topps version, and thus would sell for about the same? My sense tells me that just ain't right, but I guess it comes down to supply and demand.
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They were selling so cheaply at one time that I had accumulated five to six of the PSA 9s. I now own two - the two nicest of what I had had.
FWIW - in the David Hall auction, I believe the 1/1 PSA 10 sold for $600. That one, to the best of my knowledge, has not resurfaced since.
Fuzz
<< <i>I prefer OPC simply because it is scarcer. And when you come accross an OPC with clean cuts, that is something special. >>
except if the edges are razor sharp and the card is graded by Beckett
Also remember that your analysis based solely on the PSA 8 population is at least somewhat misleading. You could perform a similar analysis using PSA 9 cards - a potentially more valuable and volatile investment, and say that the OPC card is only 4-5 times rarer than the Topps counterpart.
I think a critical difference in this comparison is the issuance method and track of availability. Topps was issued in series that year, with Schmidt being in the high series, which also happened to be the toughest series of 1973. Yes, there are some all series packs - but not too many. OPC, on the other hand, was only issued in all series packs. So that leads to some differentiation as to relative scarcity. Whereas you could argue that, in general, 1973 OPC baseball is 20x scarcer than their Topps counterparts, I would suggest that that argument falls apart within series. Some of the lower series may be relatively rarer in OPC, just because the production numbers for the Topps series were that much greater. Thus, as a result, you could suggest that the Topps high series and the OPC equivalent of high series were the cloest overall in production numbers. Something to keep in mind.
Also - it seems to me that OPC packs are almost as easy to find, overall, as Topps packs from 1973. Although the odds of finding a Schmidt in an OPC pack are all the more tougher, it nonetheless offsets the fact that the vast majority of packs from Topps are low series - very few are high series or all series.
1973 was a weird year in many respects. Topps did not have any factory sets - they were issued in 1973 - and I frankly have never encountered or seen any 1973 Topps high series vending. I'm not suggesting that they did not exist - just that I have never seen or heard of such a thing. 1971, 1972 and 1974 vending I've all seen with no worries. I frankly have very rarely seen *any* vending from 1973 - from any of the series. I do think that there was the possibility of Topps factory dealer direct cutting perhaps going on (I forget the exact word - but most should know what I'm talking about) - which may be where some of the high grade Topps Schmidts are available from. Many may notice that 1973 Topps packs with Schmidt cards in them tend to yield a Schmidt rookie that has chipping along the black reverse borders of the card - something that can kill a chance for a top grade.
Finally, as a non-understood point, I would suggest that the OPC Schmidt rookie is much easier to find centered well than the Topps counterpart. Not sure how, not sure why, but it is something that I have absolutely noticed with my time spent on Schmidt cards in the hobby.
Anyway, I digress -- just thought I would allow a data dump here since it seems as some might be interested.
In the end, doesn't it come down to population? Whatever the factors feeding into it, PSA has graded 20x more Topps than OPC Schmidt rookies. I didn't break down the other grades because PSA 8 is the one I have. But counting all grades, OPC is 20x scarcer than Topps and PSA 8 is about the same.
Of course as far as market value, I guess that scarcity doesn't matter if the group looking for this card is 20x smaller than the Topps crowd.
Hopefully it's 10x smaller rather than 30x smaller.
The OPC cards are just uglier - plus, they're in French! As a Schmidt collector, though, I'd much rather have a PSA 10 OPC than a PSA 10 Topps, due to the scarcity of the card.
Collecting Bowman Chrome Phillies Rookie Cards and Mike Schmidt certified auto cards.
It seems like PSA 9 Topps Schmidts are in the $850-$950 range, but I haven't seen too many PSA 9 OPC Schmidts to make a comparison.
Is the PSA 9 OPC still 20X rarer than the Topps?
Schmidt is one of my favorite baseball players, and IMHO, underrated compared to the stars of today. I just read his bio in Wikipedia and remembered just how dominate he was as a 3B. If I recall wasn't he the first $2 million/year player?
From a demand perspective, most collectors prefer Topps. That is what they collected, and they just may not like seeing the phrase "Troisiemes-buts" on the front of the OPC card.
Also, for whatever reason, when the OPC PSA 9 rookies become available - they tend to come in clumps. You either don't see any for 5-6 months, or you see 3 or 4 of them go off in 3-4 months. The Topps goes for more money overall - although there have been some isolated situations where the OPC sells for more than the Topps. There have been, in particular, many Topps PSA 9s available over the last 6 months.
~ms
On a related note, since mikeschmidt has joined us, what do you think the top 5 (or so) rarest Schmidt cards are (not condition-based)?
'80 Pepsi
'72 Puerto Rican sticker
'85 Topps Mini
'74 Johnny Pro
'73/4 Team Issue
some of the discs (Red Barn, FBI)?
<< <i>I frankly have very rarely seen *any* vending from 1973 - from any of the series >>
Wasn't 1973 the first year Topps produced the set in one series?
<< <i>PSA has graded 2,216 Topps Schmidt rookies, 609 of them PSA 8. >>
<< <i>PSA has graded 107 OPC Schmidt rookies, 33 of them PSA 8. >>
If you look at as percentage relative to amount graded, there are more OPCs graded as 8 (30.8%) than Topps 8s (27.5%). True, 3.3% is not a huge margin of difference and it probably isn't that significant when you consider that the total number of graded OPC Schmidts relative to graded Topps Schmidts is 4.8%- nearly the long-estimated 5% OPC-to-Topps production.
Nonetheless, isn't there something more fundamental here with regard to OPC baseball? It was first produced in 1965 in Canada which at that time had no major league team. If kids were buying cards they were probably buying hockey cards. Even after the Expos and Jays started playing, hockey was still king. Topps was always king of baseball and baseball was always American. This is one of those weird things in determining value where scarcity in itself isn't the end all. It's more of a cultural thing and the relative demand that follows. After all, OPC hockey is still superior to Topps (and not ONLY because there's less of it).
<< <i>
<< <i>I frankly have very rarely seen *any* vending from 1973 - from any of the series >>
Wasn't 1973 the first year Topps produced the set in one series?
>>
No, that would be 1974.
I am going to answer your question sort of condition-based, as that is sort of how I think about Mike Schmidt collecting, and I don't have the time [right now] to think about it otherwise.
Here is my current list:
1980 Pepsi [two or three known]
1977 Venezuelan Sticker [very tough to find at all - much more so in high grade.]
1982 FBI Disc. Panel is tougher than single disc. All are tough - and I've never seen an example in better than EX condition, as I've never seen/known any examples that were not used.
1988 Tetley Tea Disc. Much tougher than many people realize.
1974 Johnny Pro. Not tough to find, but definitely tough in high grade.
1970s Team Issue postscards of Schmidt
1983 Tastykake
Red Barn Disc
1974 OPC is also very, very tough in nice shape.
<< <i>Gatorbait:
I am going to answer your question sort of condition-based, as that is sort of how I think about Mike Schmidt collecting, and I don't have the time [right now] to think about it otherwise.
Here is my current list:
1980 Pepsi [two or three known]
1977 Venezuelan Sticker [very tough to find at all - much more so in high grade.]
1982 FBI Disc. Panel is tougher than single disc. All are tough - and I've never seen an example in better than EX condition, as I've never seen/known any examples that were not used.
1988 Tetley Tea Disc. Much tougher than many people realize.
1974 Johnny Pro. Not tough to find, but definitely tough in high grade.
1970s Team Issue postscards of Schmidt
1983 Tastykake
Red Barn Disc
1974 OPC is also very, very tough in nice shape. >>
Thanks for the list.
Forgot about the Venezuelans. I've thought about purchasing one of the pretty rough copies David Levin has, but have balked so far (I can't tell if their cut properly). Don't know much about the Tetley Tea issue, but will try to track one down! As for the FBI Foods disc, I just purchased a "panel" on ebay. I put panel in quotes b/c I'm not 100% sure it is a complete panel or if it has been trimmed around the sides. Pretty cool piece, though.
<< <i>
Forgot about the Venezuelans. I've thought about purchasing one of the pretty rough copies David Levin has, but have balked so far (I can't tell if their cut properly). Don't know much about the Tetley Tea issue, but will try to track one down! As for the FBI Foods disc, I just purchased a "panel" on ebay. I put panel in quotes b/c I'm not 100% sure it is a complete panel or if it has been trimmed around the sides. Pretty cool piece, though. >>
Most of the VZ stickers that have been circulated to hobbyists have come through Levin. Most of them have graded - although I think the 'best' examples Levin had have already been sold.
Most aren't aware of how freaking tough the Tetley Tea issue is. I've been mum about it until I could secure one for myself, which I recently have. I have seen exactly two copies over the last 5-6 years. There are very few Tetley tea discs on Ebay, Beckett, etc. - but even those tend to be from 1989, 1990 and 1991. 1988 are very tough. As an example - there have never been any 1987 Tetley Tea discs graded by PSA of *any* player, nonetheless Mike Schmidt. Even the 1988 Super Stars discs are tough - but an order of magnitude easier than Tetley.
As for FBI - there is either the single disc, or the panel that was on the bottom of the box.
~ms
IMHO the value gap between the OPC and Topps is eventually going close. The scarcity difference has to kick in eventually.