Make your choice...you have $1000
mr1931S
Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭✭✭
You have $1000 to spend and you MUST choose one of these two PCGS slabbed coins for your high grade type collection:
1. Lincoln cent, 1988-D, MS69 RD
2. Lincoln cent, 1912-S, MS64 RD
Both coins are very nice for the PCGS assigned grade. Which one is for you and why?
1. Lincoln cent, 1988-D, MS69 RD
2. Lincoln cent, 1912-S, MS64 RD
Both coins are very nice for the PCGS assigned grade. Which one is for you and why?
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
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Sorry couldn't resist!!!
Glenn
1912-S 4.4 million
1988-D 5.2 Billion
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
-YN Currently Collecting & Researching Colonial World Coins, Especially Spanish Coins, With a Great Interest in WWII Militaria.
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President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
">"http://www.cashcrate.com/5663377"
Looking for PCGS AU58 Washington's, 32-63.
There were 1185 1988-D's made for every 1912-S. If a 1912-S in MS64 RD is a $1000 coin then a 1988-D in MS64 RD is, or should be, worth about $.84 as a collectible coin.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
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Maybe it would move my set up .25% in the standings.
Now 20 years down the road if numbers hold true i could see their being over a 1,000 ms67 in the 88, a 150 in ms 68, and less than 10 in ms69. The cent is no longer minted. And ms64 rd 12-s pop is 200. I am not sure I choose the best buy here. If the modern coin was a ms67 from the sixties I would be choosing the memorial. But these often sell higher making the choose yet harder.
The 88-d may be tough, but Ill bet the population increases on this coin in the next few years greater than the 12-s??
1912-S PCGS MS64RD
October 1997---61 with 24 higher at MS65RD.
October 2000---93 with 30 higher at MS65RD.
October 2003---111 with 31 higher at MS65RD.
currently---133 with 35 higher at MS65 RD.
evidentally there are quite a few more that are going to be made!!!!! i would assume this means that there are still unsearched rolls out there and i'll go out on a limb to suggest that it'll be easier to make the 1912-S at MS64RD than it will be to make the 1988-D at MS69RD. the 1988-D had four coins graded at PCGS in October of 1997, 17 coins graded in October 2000 and 169 in all grades with the MS69RD finally having been made. either PCGS loosened up on grading or the searchers got better!!
i'd still take the 1912-S right now but time may change the course of the prices for both coins. Lincolns are avidly collected so it's an absolute certainty that more of both will be submitted and made, with the 1912-S subject population rising more quickly. in the end, the price determinant will be the ever elusive demand factor.
BTW, if you minimize the grade difference for the 1988-D from MS68RD to MS69RD, how do you feel about the difference for the 1912-S in MS63RD and MS64RD, not to mention the subtle difference in RB and RD which will come into play with the 1912-S but not the 1988-D?? makes you think, doesn't it?? i'd personally take an attractive and red 1912-S in PCGS MS64RB every day of the week.
al h.
<< <i>You have $1000 to spend and you MUST choose one of these two PCGS slabbed coins for your high grade type collection:
1. Lincoln cent, 1988-D, MS69 RD
2. Lincoln cent, 1912-S, MS64 RD
Both coins are very nice for the PCGS assigned grade. Which one is for you and why? >>
This is easy. I don't collect the old Lincolns because there's too much competition. So I have no use
for it. Actually I have little use for the '88-D either since I already have a virtually perfect highly PL spec-
imen.
So my solution would be to go through lots of mint sets looking for the '88-D. I'd find one after looking
at about a thousand sets but along the way I'd also find a nice gem Philly quarter or two, a spectacular
Denver half, three rotated reverse Philly halfs, a small handful of gem dimes and, with luck, one of each
gem PL nickels. I'd also have about $800 left over for grading fees or to find more mint sets.
The '88-D cent comes in simply spectacular condition. The very best appear to be branch mint proofs and
even have square rims. Some of the others of the era also come pretty nice and some, like the '89-D, are
more common. I only recently found my first '87-D of this quality though it's not quite so PL and doesn't
have the squarish rims. The interesting thing is that some of the moderns simply don't come nice in rolls.
Most of the coins were simply put in circulation but even if collectors had checked them all first, there simply
wouldn't be any spectacular gems in the entire production. No one seems to have a clue which are unavail-
able in rolls and which are unavailable in mint sets. In some cases it doesn't really matter since either there
are no mint sets or there are no rolls. (or neither)
While the 12-S cent had a low mintage and few people looked through cents in those years looking for gems,
it was a substantially higher number than it was in 1988. Indeed, there may well have been more than there
are people looking at some of the new coins.
Rolls of '88-D cents are hardly one of the modern rarities, but my best guess is that there are no MS-69's in any
of them. Even if all 5 1/4 billion were still in existence there would possibly be not a single MS-69 in the bunch.
<< <i>#2, because as we have heard #1 is MODERN CRAP!!!
Sorry couldn't resist!!! >>
And there you have it!
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
First of all there are far fewer Mint State survivors of the 1912-S than the 1988-D. What REALLY counts is not the mintage; it's the number of survivors, and with the 1988 Mint Sets around, the 1912-S has to win that contest.
Second, chemical stability. Chances are an original red 1912-S is reasonably stable if its red color has held for that long. I can’t say the same for this modern copper plated zinc stuff. I’ve got a 1983 doubled die cent that I bought years ago. It came out of a PCGS MS-65, Red holder, and since it was cracked it has lived in a Capital Plastics holder. The darn thing is now getting about brown around the edges. So it goes, but chemical stability is just one more worry when you collect or invest in this stuff.
But anyway, between the two... $1000 is a fair price for a nice 64rd 12-s, and for an ms69 88-d I bet the right buyer would pay even more than $1000. On the other hand 88-d is a fairly easy date to find in mint sets in ms68 condition (I have one I got from a mint set). It is tough to say how hard ms69 is. I don't think I have found any raw ms69 cents yet in all my looking. It may be true that the number of surviving 88-d's in ms69 is faw fewer than the number of surviving 64rd 12-s's, but you have to consider anyone putting together a decent full red Lincoln set would probably want an ms64rd 12-s, but only a couple of people who vie for the finest Memorial set in the world would care to have an ms69 88-d as ms68's are common.
By the way, I'm basically down to 3 coins to finish my Lincoln set, 12-s,13-s,14-s! So I need the 12-s!
al h.
T
BTW, if you minimize the grade difference for the 1988-D from MS68RD to MS69RD, how do you feel about the difference for the 1912-S in MS63RD and MS64RD, not to mention the subtle difference in RB and RD which will come into play with the 1912-S but not the 1988-D?? makes you think, doesn't it?? i'd personally take an attractive and red 1912-S in PCGS MS64RB every day of the week.
ext
If the 88-d is lowered to ms68, Yes the only choice will be the 12-s
Their is still more factors to consider: without doubt the 12-s will grow very little over 20 years in ms64 I doubt it will double. Yet the 88-d has a lot room to grow. in looking at the pops one can apply a formula of sorts, by comparing the percentage of 7 to 8 to 9 and have idea of what may be around. This only works at times, because; early on in the modern market one searching rolls to slab found that a ms67 in an 88-d was profitable. At this point I would only bulk coins I felt had a good shot at 8 even if all came back as 7 , the effect of this will change the numbers. ms66 will stand still, ms68 will grow at a faster rate as in the past. But all are sending in the very best the have and
ms69's to me have a clear differance over a ms68. At ms69 this coin may never pass a pop of 10 and in 68 maybe less than 100
To add to the confusion. The rate of population growth works fine on some dates, and still is mis leading to underprice a coin in others.
Add increase demand, things get more unclear.........But one thing is for sure the amount of rolls that are unsearched are getting harder to find, faster than any one expects. and a near stop to growth of some dates may come soon. by this I mean 10% a year on the second best and none added to the pop tops. Where will price go then?