Future Value of 70s PSA 8s and 9s

balco757

Merry Christmas everyone, I've enjoyed this group and learned a lot from you as I have returned to the hobby this year .....

I am looking for views for the future (say 5, 10, 15 year) views on prices for 70's PSA 8s and 9s of mid-star (Garvey, Bench, Care, Carlton) and star player (Rose, Ryan, Schmidt, etc) cards.

It seems that you can buy these cards in PSA 8s and 9s (sans Ryan) for 40-60% of SMR on eBay.....Do you think this trend will continue? Is there a wealth of un-opened material that could saturate the market over time? You get the idea.

I am adding to my collection mostly these kind of cards (cant afford 50s and 60s cards), but worried a bit that their prices will only go lower in time.

Thanks for your views.

Steve

stevek

The only certain thing about the future is that it is certain that the future can't be accurately predicted, especially when it comes to investments. But my opinion is that 1970's PSA 8's and 9's are not a "good" investment - but will hold their current value or slightly increase. 1960's and back are a good investment. 1980's are a terrible investment. Most 1990's to the present are a terrible investment but there will be some "sleeper" sets from the 1990's and even 2000's which will be fantastic investments - I have no idea which ones.

helionaut

Looking 10-15 years down, or less, I'd have to think the market for slabbed cards will balance out again like they did for raw cards. Currently, the main thing that makes a card valuable in a particular grade is scarcity, not the player. For every $200 1973 PSA 9 card of a common player, there are surely another 50 copies out there somewhere. The populations will meet demand, and thus the lasting attraction will be for the actual player. That is, the biggest stars will be "worth" more than commons. From the 70s, Ryan 9s, Schmidt and Brett rookies, and maybe Yount and other top-tier HOF rookies will be the best cards to have. Only the bluest chips.

But if you are thinking of buying something today to hold for 10-15 years, I'd suggest instead well-developed financial instruments like stocks in giant companies like Coke or GE. Or land. Not as much fun as cards, but more secure and you get dividends.

RepublicaninMass

Maybe some of the tiffany sets? 86 Topps (it is nice though hard to believe) 89 upperdeck, some rookie's and future Hof'ers???

jrdolan

<< <i>It seems that you can buy these cards in PSA 8s and 9s (sans Ryan) for 40-60% of SMR on eBay >>


Actually, some Ryans are pretty cheap relative to SMR, which takes awhile to catch up with market trends. Example: '72 Ryan PSA 8 is $250 in SMR but sells for $150 or less ... sometimes much less.

easttexascardsandgames

I think the only 70s set that will increase dramatically is the 71s. Those black borders are killer.

However I do feel from 1970 to 74 PSA 8(especially) and 9s are underpriced somewhat. They are not badly underpriced but could see some increases in the next few years.

ctsoxfan

This is a great topic - I look forward to hearing the consensus on this from everyone. My feeling, since I largely collect 70's sets, is that there may be a bit more of a downward trend on some of the high price, low pop commons...but the star cards should hold firm. There are some cards that are just plain tough - and high grade copies of those will always be tough to find, and will hold value.

70's unopened seems to be tougher, and more expensive, than it once was. 60's and back will certainly be more scarce, but will younger collectors care as much about players they never saw play? It's an interesting debate - but I collect cards I like regardless of "investment value".

jskirwin

<< <i>but I collect cards I like regardless of "investment value". >>


Agreed. I collect '67-'78 raw but pick up cheap gradeds when I can. While I hope that the price goes up over the coming decades, I don't plan on selling them so whether it does or not is beside the point.

I collect because it is fun.

The 1970s are a great and overlooked era in my opinion. While the 50s and 60s sets get all the glory (and 5 digit evaluations), I recently looked at a list of the top 100 players in baseball and was amazed by how many 70s stars were on it. Pete Rose. Nolan Ryan. Tom Seaver. Mike Schmidt. Lou Brock. Reggie Jackson. If you ask me the 70s sucked economically, politically, and musically - but not in regards to baseball.

sagard

I think the '70s cards will continue to decline. Molitor and Murray RC's don't always hold $300 in 9. Brett and Schmidt do seem to be solid though. Commons in less then 9 will continue to sell for fractions of grading costs depending on the year.

dtkk49a

I think Helionaut hit it right on the head. The star cards will always command a premium, whether it be the 50's, 60's or 70's. Buying PSA 10's of Biff Pocoroba is not going to make you rich. Who knows how much 70's stuff is still stashed away. Alot I bet.

softparade

I just started a 78 graded set, stop bumming me out fellas

anyway, i started this set because 1978 Topps is what I remember most from my youth. I am not collecting for future re-sale value. It would still be nice to know a set like this would return at least what I put into it if I ever have to sell ...

brianwintersfan

<< <i>I am not collecting for future re-sale value >>



Then it shouldn't matter what they end up being worth.As long as you like them that is all that matters.
Truth be told I don't see those sets growing much in value.I just listed a lot of sweet raw 78's on Ebay and couldn't get a bid on them.
People always want clean raw cards and then won't even bother to bid.I realize the risk of bidding on lots like that but I'm a seller with great feedback who deals in cards and nobody gave them a second look.
Kind of tells me what the interest level is.

Xena6969

COLLECTING 70'S IS BETTER THAN SPENDING ALL YOUR MONEY IN A BAR. THOUGH BARS CAN BE FUN TOO.

jskirwin

I don't understand the pessimism about these cards.
Yes, there is a lot of raw out there, but there are also alot of guys hitting middle age (like me) who are revisiting their childhood passions - this time with money. In the 70s you have stars and you have hair-pulling sets to complete (1971 black borders) as well as eye-catching ones (1972). The only thing you don't have are the demographics - GenX is a smaller group than the Baby Boomers that preceded us.

NickM

IMO many of these cards will fluctuate greatly in price on a set-by-set basis. Supply will increase constantly, with sudden surges of supply when PSA has specials that cover these cards, while demand will fluctuate as new collectors get into a set or old collectors sell off a set.

I don't hold out much hope of PSA 8s being worth a substantial sum - it appears that in the context of most post-1971 cards, they are already being regarded as a less-than-desirable grade, and are often going for less than the grading fee even for HOFers. THis makes it fairly likely that supply will be more than adequate to fill demand in this grade.

Even PSA 9s in some sets will take a major hit. It has already happened for 1980 PSAs - many HOFers in PSA 9 can now be found for $5 or under (I've picked up a couple recently at $3.). Barring a sudden surge in demand for this set, submissions may dry up (no one wants to submit arguably vintage cards to sell where you lose money unless you get a 10), and in that case demand might again overtake supply - until the cycle repeats itself when the supply gets its next large boost.

Nick

jaxxr

Great topic, and of course no one knows for SURE what will happen in the future.

I posed a question similar a few years back, something like; what happens when ( random estimate / guess numbers ) the 3 to 6 avid set collectors, the 3 or 4 devoted team collectors, the 2 or 3 player collectors,and several other interested cardaholics get their PSA 9 Jim Rice, Dave Parker ,Richie Zisk or whomever of a comparable nature, to add to each's personal collection ?

Will anyone else pay a good price for these semi-stars, let alone a mere common ?? Would I or anyone bother to bid on an additional PSA 9 of say a 73 Ralph Garr ?

Perhaps new collectors will add to the demand and keep prices stable if not upward.

Maybe some will feel high- end 8s are such a bargain, they will produce new demand, and lessen their idea that only "mnt" will do for the 70s.

And it is a fact that cards from the 50s were not really expensive about 25 years ago, maybe 25 years from now, the cards from the 70s will show great rise in cost.

Unopened and un-submitted material is quite difficult to measure. Most of the 1974 wax may be badly water damaged or grossly mis-handled causing poor corners. Maybe there are over 100 mint-like copies of Dave Winfield and Bud Harellson too, from 74 ready to be submitted. Who really knows ??

The best focus on any collectible should be personal enjoyment. It's great if your cards go up in value but do you really enjoy them less if they do not ? I guess you would enjoy them a bit more if they did go up though.

Fabfrank

I guess what we can glean from the comments and our experiences, is that graded cards are cyclical in nature. Right now 70's 8's and 80's 9's are experiecncing a downturn. Supply exceeds demand and prices have dropped. What I have also noticed is that many of the big submitters are not grading this material as frequently as in the past. As the supply diminishes, prices should stabilize and than rise slightly as demand increases again. This doesn't happen overnight and the cycles take time to run their course.
I'm currently building sets from 71-78 (72-78 in PSA 8, 9 when affordable) in baseball. Right now I'm enjoying the low prices, but the cheap lots that used to be prevalent are starting to dry up. I'm patient and will ride out the cycles until I'm done.