What would it do to the market if PCGS were to get a lot tougher when grading moderns?

haletj

Hypothetically . So say pcgs gets so tough it's nearly impossible to get a regular business strike coin graded ms67. What would this do to the market? Might the coins already in ms67 holders get more expensive as the pop would stay steady, or would the coins already in ms67 holders seem like overgraded coins, and end up being worth less as people would prefer to buy the nicer newly graded ms66's?

This is sort of like who would win... the plastic collectors or the coin collectors?

cladking

I suspect everyone would lose. It can't be good for markets to change grading
standards. Certainly a tightening would be less destructive than loosening. There
is a natural tendency for standards to tighten as prices fall and loosen as they rise,
though.

The modern markets are sufficiently thin to handle a lot more supply. If the supply
gets ahead of the demand it would simply cause a price decrease which should slow
submissions and apparent supply. Some of the pops shouldn't have a great deal more
growth anyway. Those which do should not be artificially supported by changing the
standards.

dbldie55

Certainly would have no effect on me.

rainbowroosie

I'll state openly that PCGS "has" changed its standard on MS silver roosies; simply stated, coins which used to and SHOULD 67 come back 66. I hope a PCGS person reads this and investigates. Compare recent submissions making 67 to past submissions solely by % -- I bet you will see a difference, make that a significant difference.

haletj

Same with Lincolns. I know a collector who has lots of experience sending Lincolns (and Roosie's too) to pcgs and he had 3 78-d Lincolns as nice as many of his ms67's, a heck of a lot nicer than this 78-d with Heritage, and of course pcgs gave him 3 ms66's. If you can't see the link, the coin's description is.... "Well struck, with bright orange-copper color, and a couple of marks on Lincoln's forehead and cheek". There is NO WAY that coin would grade ms67 if cracked out and sent in today. And this is not an isolated case, as in my own experience I have bought 4 pcgs ms67 Lincolns now, and ALL 4 I returned to the seller for I don't think they would make ms67 today. I would guess maybe as many as 50% of all Lincolns from 1959 to 1981 graded ms67 would not grade that if cracked out and sent in again today.

DRG

It has always been nearly impossible to get PCGS to give a MS67 grade to a NON silver MS Ike. With that said I think they have gotten even togher as a few of the older MS67's that I hace seen would be MS66's by the current standards.

The SBA's are about the same. It has always been difficult to get MS67's (a lot easier than Ike's) but some of the older high grade coins are sliders on the low end.

I think PCGS takes grading Moderns more seriously now then they did 6 or 7 years ago when a mistake would not cost them much.

BNE

It would have limited effect if the horse is already out of the barn, and many were made earlier.

A few years ago, there weren't more than a dozen 70DCAM Jefferson nickels for most modern years. Within a year those numbers tripled, and it wasn't because a flood of beauties hit the market. What was a 69 was now a 70. Prices plunged from $400-$1000 (when you could find one) to a commodity coin at $250 a pop. No problem finding one -- just check out Teletrade most nights. What had been "untouchable" collections, like Frank's, opened up to competition from some ambitious newcomers who (as they should) saw an opportunity to put together a top-ranked set that was impossible a year or two earlier.

Those locked up in those coins saw the value of their collections drop. I don't think tightening up now would have much of an effect -- at least until a new generation of collectors wants those coins.

lloydmincy

Haletj:

I wouldnt worry about it. You sound like you are implying grading is a game. If PCGS feels a coin is a 66, it will get a 66. If it feels it is a 67, then it gets slabbed as a 67. PCGS is not getting tough, IMO. As time goes on, it is just going to be a rarer circumstance for nice moderns to show up. But they can: A woman died a year ago, and had a roll of 1916 Lincolns in her safe deposit box. The 1916 MS67's went from 12 to about 27. That's a 90-year-old coin, and PCGS had no problem handing out a grade that effected current collectors with the 1916 cent. They felt they were 67's.


If the coin is nice, it will get the good grade. The constant upgrading is what I have a problem with. To me, that is the OPPOSITE of what you are implying. (More leniant).

-----Lloyd

wondercoin

"A few years ago, there weren't more than a dozen 70DCAM Jefferson nickels for most modern years. Within a year those numbers tripled, and it wasn't because a flood of beauties hit the market. What was a 69 was now a 70."

BNE: I respectfully disagree with you. And, here is why:

1. IMHO, the fact that "a few years ago, there weren't more than a dozen 70DCAM Jefferson nickels for most modern years" had little to do with better quality than todays PR70DC and a lot to do with the coins simply not getting graded. Myriad threads have been written on this topic alone, so no need to repeat all the issues here. Anyone with a handful of old pop reports from 1997-2002 can easily see what I am talking about.

2. I believe a year or so ago PCGS adopted a "double verification" process which has ensured that the vast majority of "marginal" coins do not escape their compound, unlike years past where a coin could have graded PR70DC in the grading room, but, in the sealing room was mishandled (hence, becoming a problem coin) and then shipped out in a PR70DC holder.

Therefore, IMHO, overall, 69's have not become 70's in the past couple years, but, rather, 70's have been properly graded 70's in the past few years.

On a side note, I have numerous recently graded PCGS-PR70DCAM coins in most series that rank among the greatest PR70DC specimens I have EVER SEEN for that particular series. For example, I just started a personal collection of PCGS-PR70DCAM Kennedy Half Dollars (only after Edson sold his set, as before that all the incredible monster Kennedys I came across were offered to him). At any Long Beach show, I would be more than happy to bring my collection of recently graded PCGS-PR70DCAM Kennedys and present them, side by side, against any PCGS-PR70DCAM "green holder" or early blue holder PR70DC Kennedys of the same dates any collector has out there. I offer this not to "brag" about the overall quality of the recently graded PR70DC Kennedys, but, simply "a picture is worth a thousand words". I can write about the great quality overall of the coins I am seeing every day and someone else can write that "what was a 69 [is] now a 70" . The only way to settle this one is for collectors to compare REAL coins. Kennedys are big coins - it is real easy to see incredibly pristine surfaces and DCAM's that are so deep it looks like a foot of snow just fell on the mountaintop

Wondercoin

BNE

I have no reason to doubt you, Wondercoin, and know where you're coming from.

I guess I am just expressing what it looks like, from the collector's end of things. And the increased pops do drive down prices, whether the new ones are truly nicer coins, or not.

Peace, bruddah.

centmaster

<< <i>Haletj:

I wouldnt worry about it. You sound like you are implying grading is a game. If PCGS feels a coin is a 66, it will get a 66. If it feels it is a 67, then it gets slabbed as a 67. PCGS is not getting tough, IMO.
-----Lloyd >>



Maybe not, but I have about 50 late date wheat cents that say otherwise. The only way PCGS gives a 67 for me now is if it looks like a 68, and I only send the best of the best of the best in to them! If you don't think they're getting tough, then tell me how many wheats you've gotten to 67 in the past year, and if it's more than a handful, then please tell us your secret!

rainbowroosie

My statement is about consistency: I have sent xxxx many roosies into PCGS over the years...... I have made a LOT of 67s. .....REPEAT: What PCGS used to grade as 67 is no longer a 67....The quality of coin I send now is the same as in the past, the RESULTS ARE DIFFERENT....and, it costs me money in the marketplace as even old "overgraded" 67s are worth more than my "undergraded" 66s...and please do not lecture me about buy the coin not the holder, that doesn't cut it for Registry buyers.....all I want for Christmas from PCGS is the same grading as we used to get -- a single standard -- be consistent, which is not what we are now getting.

FullStepJeffs

Amen...

Now that the Jefferson series is finally somewhat, maybe, complete with the initial obverse/reverse design, the pop reports have finally started moving for these coins. A few years ago, there were very few coins graded in the late date series and the pop rarely changed... now, every Monday, I'm looking to see what pops have changed in the mint state coins. I've said it many times... if dealers actually looked at some of the coins they have in late date mint sets and rolls, I think they might be pleasantly suprised what some of these coins would sell for. Jeffersons are still easily cherrypicked... so much so, that my conscience is killing me when I do it these days.

Happy Hollidays!

Steve