Active Future Hall of Fame Pitchers

Gemmy10 · December 11, 2004 12:29PM

Shoe ins:
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Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Mariano Rivera

Probably:
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Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine

Maybe:
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Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling

Let the debates begin. 300 wins is a shoe in. If Mussina (211 wins) stays healthy he has a shot. I don't think Schilling (184 wins) does though. Mussina just turned 36 years old. Schilling is 38

SDSportsFan · December 11, 2004 1:32PM

I agree with your list Gemmy, but what about Smoltz?

Edited to add (I can't believe I forgot him in the first place

), Trevor Hoffman into the probable category (on a par with Rivera, but nowhere near the glamour of being a Yankee)

Steve

Gemmy10 · December 11, 2004 1:37PM

Yeah, I thought of Hoffman and maybe Smoltz also.

SDSportsFan · December 11, 2004 1:41PM

Every time I look at that list I just can't help but be shocked by the inclusion of Mussina. He's been pitching in relative obscurity for so long that most people don't realize he's as good as he is

Steve

Gemmy10 · December 11, 2004 1:45PM

One of the reasons is Mussina is very quiet, just like Bernie. He has never won 20 games but is always in the high teens. I think some day he will win 20.

Gemmy10 · December 11, 2004 1:54PM

Mike Mussina's Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com

Black Ink: Pitching - 11 (195) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 212 (31) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 45.0 (50) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 100.0 (90) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

80sToyguy · December 11, 2004 1:55PM

Martinez has to move ahead of Glavine Gemmy, maybe not a 'shoe in' but he's got a much, much better shot than Glavine even if they both hung their cleats up tomorrow. Hoffman and Rivera have been dominant for the last 10 years or so, but there have been alot of dominant closers who will never get in. I don't think there will ever be a closer who would be considered a 'shoe in' unless he had up around 500 saves in just 10 years (and what are the odds of that?)
Jay

Gemmy10 · December 11, 2004 1:57PM

When Rivera retires he will have over 400 Saves. He will be a shoe in.

SDSportsFan · December 11, 2004 2:05PM

You bring up a valid point ToyGuy, but it's also one that highlights one of the biggest problems with HOF voting these days.

Up until the 1980's, closers were lucky to reach 30 saves a season, since starters actually COMPLETED their starts

No one can tell me that closers like Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter do not belong in the Hall of Fame!

Since Bobby Thigpen saved 57 games one season, and brought along by managers who subscribed to Sparky "Captain Hook" Anderson's mindset of pulling the starter at the first hint of a problem, closers started racking up unheard numbers of saves per season (not unlike the increase in homeruns over the last several years)

Also, I do feel that the "save" statistic is overrated, since a pitcher can come into a game in the bottom of the ninth, up by three runs and get a save simply by getting the final batter out. Voters must look not only at the amount of saves on a closer's resume, but also look at how "dominant" the pitcher was.

This is why I feel that pitchers like Gossage and Sutter should DEFINITELY be in the Hall of Fame, and a pitcher like Lee Smith or Dan Quisenberry should not be, because they really weren't as DOMINANT when they pitched. It' a tremendously hard call to make on Smith, since he is the All-Time Leader in saves, but I just don't feel he was dominant.

IMO, Rivera and Hoffman are the two dominant closers of the last 10 years or so, and definitely will merit strong consideration for the HOF when they finally become eligible.

Steve

kuhlmann · December 11, 2004 2:18PM

Gemmy
Die hard Mets fan here! You know me! Smoltz is a first ballet HOF! you say maybe smoltz?? sorry man as much as i cant stand the braves!!!!! Smoltz is top 5 pitchers over last 10 years. Roger Clemens Randy Johnson Greg Maddux John Smoltz Tom Glavine! and a 6th for one more David Wells! Frome last year back to 1994 these would be 6 out of 10! for top ten pitchers of the decade!

pedro martinez curt schilling also but for a ten year run i think my top 5 are hard to beat!

Gemmy10 · December 11, 2004 2:25PM

Here's another long shot. If he had stayed with the Yankees and continued to rack up wins he would have a shot at 300 but now he has injured himself so who knows.

SDSportsFan · December 11, 2004 2:32PM

Very true about Pettitte Gemmy!

At this point, he reminds me of another pitcher who had a HOF career going until he blew out his arm.....Don Gullett of the Reds back in the 1970s.

Steve

DeutscherGeist · December 11, 2004 4:08PM

Schilling is coming up on the radar screen. Forget the 300 wins, he has been very dominant though. Look at baseball reference, and you will see that he is a formidable contender for the HOF.

Mussina and Wells are up and coming as well.

Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux have to be grouped together.

DeutscherGeist · December 11, 2004 4:22PM

One pitcher that has been ignored is Kevin Brown. I am surprised no one brought him up. I think he is closer to the HOF than David Cone, and that's saying a lot.

Skinpinch · December 11, 2004 10:43PM

Andy Pettitte? Are you kidding me? His best two finishes in ERA are fourth and eight. Thats it. Never once cracked the top ten besides those two years. Wins are the most overrated and misleading stats for a starting pitcher. There are plenty of guys who if had the same run support as Pettitte would have won more games than him.

I would love to hear the "yeah, but he KNOWS how to WIN." Which is the dumbest comment ever. It is said because people don't really understand what is at work, so they attach that attribute to explain how a guy wins 20 games, while better pitchers don't. I call that the Rick Helling phenomenom.

Please do not bring up post season 'success'. His post season ERA is 4.05, which is slightly worse than his regular season ERA. Post season players are the other most misunderstood phenomenoms. Basically, they don't exist. They are products of small sample size. I have an very nice article written on that already. That is one you do not have to wait for.

If given enough post season at bats, you will see that the post seasons stats will basically show the same thing as the regular season at bats. Just check out any current Yankee and look at the totals of both, and you will see what I mean. Guys are labled post season players because of Carlos Beltran like series. Bernie Williams once had that label, until given enough time, he also threw up some post season stinkers! In the end, Bernie in the post season wasn't any more special than Bernie in the regular season. Do that exercise for EVERY post season 'hero', including MR. October himself(HE HAD SEVEN TERRIBLE POST SEASON SERIES). Some feat for such a clutch player.

Pettitte, NO WAY!

All of those other guys have a strong case.

However, Rivera does not deserve it over Goose etc.... Those guys must go in as well.

80sToyguy · December 12, 2004 1:00AM

Skinpinch, I agree whole-heartedly about the post season guys! And Gossage--YES, he has to go in, even though Rivera and Hoffman have better numbers. The thing is, Gossage was arguably the most DOMINANT closer of his era, as are Rivera and Hoffman. But because Gossage won't get in (or at least isn't in yet), means it's going to be very hard for Rivera and Hoffman to get the consideration they deserve (and I'm saying this even though everyone knows I HATE the Yankees--Rivera is still GREAT!).
And really, the arguement about Pettitte is a joke, joke, JOKE! I've got 1 name to compare to Pettitte, and that's JACK MORRIS! Morris is the winningest pitcher of the 1980's (go ahead and check), and was known as a post season ACE! He won the World Series with 3 teams AND had a much longer string of seasons with high wins and decent (although certainly not dominating) ERA's. His numbers make Pettitte look unmentionable, yet he will almost certainly NEVER get in--how the hell is Pettitte supposed to make it?
And SD SportsFan, you are very correct with the assessment that the save category has changed dramatically over the past 25 years. It does make it difficult for the voters, simply because they are treading on new territory. As it used to be with 500 homers, the number of saves was somewhere in the 300-400 category 10 years ago, and the player was perceived to be a hall of fame shoe in. Now getting 30 saves in a year (so consequently having somewhere around 300 within 10-12 years), won't even land you in the top 5 on many occassions--how can that be considered great? So now what's the number? Do you take a player who is simply dominant over a shorter span, or is longevity the key (which I strongly disagree with). That's why to me Rivera, and Hoffman, although they will get consideration, might not get in depending on when they retire.
Jay

Gemmy10 · December 12, 2004 1:55AM

I am not saying Pettitte is a Hall of Famer. What I am saying is if he stayed with the Yankees, assuming he stayed healthy (he got hurt batting in NL) he would have a shot at 300 wins which is a lock. kuhlmann, by the way, David Wells has about 60 wins more than Pettitte but Wells is 10 years older. Wells at best is a borderline HOFer. He does have that perfect game which would help. If you look at baseball-reference Pettitte has slightly better sabrmetric stats than Wells.

I agree about Gossage. He deserves to be in the Hall and I think he eventually will get in. I would not be surprized if this is the year.

Active Future Hall of Fame Pitchers

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