collector's question for the "old timers"

duner

The debate arose, and these boards haven't been that exciting lately so I figured i'd posit a question for all of those on this board who've been collecting for decades...if not a century.

so as the discussion went, when a i was a child in the 80's prices of the stuff I look at now on mastronet, lelands etc. would be square rooted as to purchase prices. particularly in baseball. I even remember qvc or someone selling auto'd babe ruth balls for like 5,000 a piece. even the average guy could afford a mickey mantle or ted williams autograph, hell someone with an average job would even have a shot at a rookie card. fast forward 20 years and none of this stuff is touchable even for those with the deep pockets.

So here the debate begins. baseball memorabilia will continue to climb, but what's next? being biased, my pick was for football memorabilia. it seems like the contemporary following for football in america is what baseball was in the 50's and 60's. At the same time, with the poundings those poor guys took, most of them are coming down with alzheimers and all other sorts of severe health issues. add to the fact that every sport has been the red headed step child of MLB for 5 decades and there is far fewer items for people to get their hands on.

So, will baseball even in the sorry state it's now in continue to rule well into the 21st century? or will football and its memorabilia's popularity explode in the same way baseball did in the 80's? Finally, just to be fair even though basketball's true following seems to come from the urban sector it has great international appeal. so could it take over?

JERO

Baseball will continue to rule. Personally I feel that the new products are going to burn themselves out with all this 1/1, refractor, diamond cut gold plated, laser etched, diamond encrusted, etc... business. Thus the focus will shift more so to vintage material. Football is more scarce, but I feel the idea using scarcity as well as current game popularity to inflate the value of football cards is flawed. This is my thought... With baseball the players tend to play a looooong time. The fans really get to know them. 162 games, spring training, playoffs, etc... The players as individuals are pounded in our heads, month after month, year after year, sometimes decades after decades. Football on the other hand you have 16 game seasons, and in the past it was even less than that. You can't easily identify players through helmets, and among the normal chaos of the game. Sure there are a few exceptions, but overall I think this is correct. So to answer your question... Baseball will continue to be king simply due to the above. Football may be scarce, but to tell you the truth, I can name hundreds of baseball players that retired before I was born, but I couldn't name 20 football players before 1974, and likewise I couldn't name 20 hockey players before 1974 if my life depended on it. So in the end if you don't feel connected to the individuals, the collectability of the products will continue to be much less than the relative scarcity.

JERO

duner

you raise some very valid points jero. to be honest i started collecting football about two years ago, and when i started the only hall of famers i could name were grange, rockne, and walter payton, even to this day i have to go to the hall of fame website to verify who's a hof'er and who isn't.

but i look at my generation and there's not a great deal of excitement to remember for baseball. I remember the tail end of nolan ryan. After that you had clemens, mcgwire, maddux, bonds, and a few others. unfortunately a ton of them are tainted in scandals, but more importantly except for the sosa-mcgwire race, there hasn't been great excitement over particular players. on the other hand, i remember barry sanders or emmitt smith at their prime, and it just seemed un human what those guys could do. stars in the nfl just seem so much more exciting and awe inspiring, and it's that type of excitement that makes me think football players and its history will begin to stick in people's minds.

JERO

I understand your point. However excitement in popular opinion doesn't necessarily coorelate with excitement with collectability. Maybe baseball cards and such are king because baseball fans are typically more anal and stat intensive. I have no doubt football will increase in popularity, but I really doubt it will put a dent in baseballs kingdom (collectability wise). You mention barry sanders, emmitt smith, etc... but how is the demand for their RCs? Arguably among the greatest in the game during the explosion in popularity for football, and how is the demand side of the equation for their cards? Terrible. The idealism behind a little kid in the 50s with a plaid shirt in the drug store is always buying baseball cards. Not football cards, not hockey... but baseball. Baseball just has the longevity (150 years+/-) over football, and in 50 years... who knows. But i'll put my bets on baseball always being the king when it comes to collectability, sustained value and interest. Good topic, hopefully we get some more insightful input on this from others.

JERO

Skinpinch

Football's following is attributed mainly to the violent nature of the sport, and the point spreads. People don't have a true love for football like they do for baseball. Some of the best, and most important football players on the team are lineman. Most people have no idea who they even are. If you went to a football game and polled the fans, the average guy may be able to name five or six players out of the 45 on the team. They are there because the violence and gambling make it a popular thing. Since it is popular you have to be there. There is no football love affair like in baseball. You won't adore a piece of cardboard if the love affair is not true.

There are some football love affair guys, but not too many.

Golfcollector

I personally think the future profit margin is strong for the "other sports" Boxing, hockey, tennis, golf. Particularly pre war era tobacco issues. They are a tremendous bargin at current prices.

Just my $.02

jmullen

basketball ....

RepublicaninMass

some specific set from all sports will always be attractive. Namath rookie year (65 topps?), or orr rookie (even though people hate the woodgrain, or 86 fleer jordan and countless other rookies. I personally dont like football cause of the annoying fans, point spread and and degenerate gambling that goes with it. I am convinced that people dont care who wins or loses as long as they beat the spread. At least most of the chooches I know.

jmullen

basketball ...

Stone193

Vintage turn of the century non-sport cards, e.g. Churchman, Gallaher, are affordable and really cool...these could turn out to be the 'sleeper' of the century for upward movement.

19th and early 20th century baseball seems to be hotter than ever but the pieces are getting expensive.

So, based on what has happened to baseball, research the area of very early vintage basketball and football. Turn of the century golf items are already getting very expensive but still room to get in.

If you start looking around, you may find something, by accident, that may put you on the road to something exciting and rewarding to collect.

Take a visit over to the non-sport channel - if you like old movie stars e.g. or vintage TV - this may be something for you.

I'm always envious of people with vision who get into things on the ground floor before the prices explode.
E.g., I was interested in pulp art years ago and procrastinated - now I can't afford even one piece where you could have gotten them relatively cheap.

Collecting is so unbelievably rewarding and fun...you are some great people with great ideas...keep an eye out and let us know if you find anything!

your friend
Mike

edit: 3rd grade spelling

Fabfrank

I'm surprised some of the posts addressed the gambling issue of sports. The ironic part, as a reformed gambler, way more "serious" money is bet on baseball than on football. Football season and the SuperBowl are for the casual and amateur bettors. Baseball is followed and bet on by "serious" gamblers because teams tend to be streaky, and with 162 games per year per team, you have more of choice to bet on and can ride trends.

From the collecting aspect, just check Ebay. There is plenty of graded baseball before 1950. Today alone there are (in graded only) 233 cards from 30-39, 460 cards from 40-49, 740 cards before 1930. In football there are 37 graded cards offered pre-1950. Football is way undervalued when compared to baseball, and prices have doubled to tripled in the last 2 years. The good news is that it is still undervalued.
The bottom line is to collect what you like and you'll never go wrong.

Stone193

<< <i>Football is way undervalued when compared to baseball, and prices have doubled to tripled in the last 2 years. The good news is that it is still undervalued. >>


Frank
Boy do I agree! That's why I posted that vintage FB and Bkb would be good areas to research for collecting. Here is a scan of one of my favorite FB cards...a baseball card on parity with this player/card/set would be quite a bit more money IMO.



your friend
Mike

duner

that is a really nice card, i've always been partial to the 48 leaf though. kind of ironic baugh's rookie card came a decade after his rookie year.

Nosoupyou

Basketball has the biggest upside. The Jordan effect will last forever and the game is WORLDWIDE, unlike the other sports.

Stone193

<< <i>Basketball has the biggest upside. The Jordan effect will last forever and the game is WORLDWIDE, unlike the other sports. >>


nosoup
I was wondering if anyone has looked into the vintage area...I am clueless...I know that you can pick up a lot of stuff from the old ABA e.g. and in some cases the prices are fair...the uni's back then look so weird...the shorts are really short! I think you can make about 5 pairs out of one of Shaqs.LOL
I have a really cool Mikan auto litho that I paid too much on from the Coach's corner...check out ebay and you can pick up a lot of the autos of those guys psa/dna....like you say...15 years from now people may be saying on this board: Gee, I wish I had picked up vintage....

your friend
Mike