Historical Population and SMR Data

muck

A friend referred me to this board, suggesting that you guys are unstoppable. I hope he's right:

I’m looking for quarterly or monthly archives of both the population report and SMR data. A complete database would be awesome, but all I really need is the data for a few sample cards, ideally a listed semi-star or 2. I need a minimum of 35 sample periods(9 years of quarterly data), but more is better. Any format, electronic or paper.

Why, you ask? I’m working towards my masters in economics, and in my econometrics course I'm modeling the effects of different factors, including scarcity, on the SMR value of sportscards over time. Its a crude model at this point, I'm just looking for data to get me started. Can anyone help? I need to do my homework!

I've talked to PSA's customer support and they're either in the process of helping me, or they've decided to ignore the request. I'm worried that they don't want research being done on this topic, but I'm harmless, really!

Vargha

You'll probably have to get it from several people, but the problem is that most (if not all) of us who have kept old data have done so in the method of preference in the 1900's -- paper. Good luck getting digital files. You may need to select a handful of key cards or sets to do your paper anyway. If you need some limited paper data, I can help you out somewhat. Either e-mail me or PM me.

BTW -- SMR and Pop. Report have not been around for 35 quarters.

muck

Hmm, that is a problem, when did PSA start offering SMR and Population data? The SMR is monthly, is the Population report still quarterly?

Indeed all I really need is the data for a few sample cards, possibly just one. A vintage listed semi-star, non HOFer from the 50s or 60s would be perfect. Complete set data would work as well. I'd like to run multiple regressions, and possibly a cross-sectional time series, so would like as many samples as possible, but maybe I'm getting greedy.

Thanks.

Vargha

Pop. Report is updated weekly or faster now, I believe. I'm not sure when the services started . . . maybe 1998 or 1999? Someone more familiar with PSA might be able to help you out there.

muck

Thanks Vargha.

Given that data would only be available since 98 or 99, I'll have to shoot for monthly data. Has anyone tracked both the population, and price guide value of their card(s) or set(s) on a consistent basis? If you have, or have suggestions as to where I could look for such information, please let me know. It'll be much appreciated.

Vargha

Muck, between the board members here, we should easily be able to give you the SMR data. Pop. Report #'s will be more difficult. Lay out what cards you are hoping to track and let's see what the board can do for you.

muck

I'm not fixated on tracking any particular card. But there are certain characteristics I'm looking for. Preferably a player who has been out of the limelight for awhile. Someone who wasn't recently been nominated to the hall of fame, hasn't been banned by baseball, hasn't committed a murder, who hasn't recently died, etc etc. A vintage semi-star would be ideal, but I'll take what I can get, especially if you have some sort of population data.


Has anyone saved old hardcopies of population reports? I have one or 2, but that won't quite cut it.

mudflap02

I would think that your best bet would be to track the 1952 Topps Mantle. It's a very recognizable card, and I'm sure that some folks on here have been tracking it for years. There is also a complete distribution of grades from 1-10, which you might not be able to find with a lot of examples. It would also present pretty well (it seems to me) - I would be willing to bet that more than a few people in your class (or your prof) have heard of and will recognize that card, giving it a little more credibility than a Don Mossi from 1966.

muck

Good idea....If using a more popular card would allow me to access more population data it would be worth doing. The inherent problem with the 52Mantle is that it is a popular card. Mantle passed in the late 90s and that may have shocked some of the data. Being such a high ticket card in the high grades, it is subject to price corrections that may not coincide with a "typical" card, and could limit the strength of other price determinants.

BUT, I can worry about that stuff; it would be worth dealing with those issues if I could get the numbers. Has anyone been tracking the 52Mantle?

Fabfrank

Muck- Have you tried asking some of the PSA people? I'm sure it Cosetta or Gayle can't help you, someone who works on the SMR can give you the historical data, as well as "snapshots" at specific periods for analysis.

Vargha

Fall 1999 Pop. Report

1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle

1-2 -- 50
3-4 -- 72
5 -- 50
6 -- 58
7 -- 45
7Q -- 4
8 -- 21
8Q -- 8
9 -- 5
9Q -- 2
10 -- 3

helionaut

I imagine you'd be hard-pressed to find any commodity, especially a collectible, whose market isn't "shocked" for one reason or another from time to time. War, peace, economic and political changes, the invention of the Internet, etc. Part of any truly dynamic system are effects from any number of known or unknown sources. On a specific item like a Mantle, his death might've caused a spike in one direction, but the strike a year earlier might've depressed it. But neither would've had as big an effect as the widespread acceptance of slabbing, which pretty much took place in 1998. Also, keep in mind that SMR prices are an extremely rough guide and actual sale prices can and do vary wildly, especially as a lot of pricing is base don publicly visible sales on ebay and through other auctions. I think that visibility has a disproportionate effect on pricing. For instance, during one Super Bowl the 49ers were playing in, Bob Costas or whoever mentioned that Joe Montana's rookie card was worth $200. Well, at the time it really wasn't selling for anywhere near that much. But one mention on TV and all of a sudden it became a $200 card and non-collectors who wanted one felt lucky to get one at that price.

I've saved 3 52T Pop reports from various times. I don't have any SMRs, though.

12-12-02:
1-2 -- 106
3-4 -- 132
5 -- 90
6 -- 81
7 -- 57
7Q -- 5
8 -- 26
8Q -- 8
9 -- 5
9Q -- 2
10 -- 3
Total: 525

3-26-03
1-2 -- 110
3-4 -- 135
5 -- 93
6 -- 81
7 -- 57
7Q -- 5
8 -- 27
8Q -- 8
9 -- 5
9Q -- 2
10 -- 3
Total: 536

9-7-03:
1-2 -- 119
3-4 -- 147
5 -- 98
6 -- 81
7 -- 59
7Q -- 6
8 -- 27
8Q -- 8
9 -- 5
9Q -- 2
10 -- 3
Total: 565

The population increased by 40 in 8.5 months, almost all in the low end of the spectrum. I may have more reports on another computer.

muck

helionaut,

Thanks for the data. Keep it coming if you have it...

Concerning potential one-time shocks in a regression model, the best way to deal with them is to avoid them. If that can't be done, there are methods to measure their statistical relevence and then account for them if necessary, but these methods drop the precision of the results.

Factors such as the growth of the internet, and the health of the economy have readily available data that can be used in the model. The idea of econometric modelling is to identify as many known factors as possible, account for them in the model if they prove to be significant, and let the unknown factors get picked up by an error term. To date there have been models created that compare baseball card prices to stock market prices(health of economy). My plan is to expand that model, alter it a bit(I prefer the unemployment rate as an indicator of economic health), and among other things include data concerning relative scarcity(population data).

This of course is a very crude start to the problem. Ideally, an index of cards would be used and not just one card. Ideally I wouldn't just trust the SMR, and would collect auction/sale results data. But you have to start somewhere.

All that said, can anyone suggest price guide data that may be archived and available? Maybe SMR is not the best option.

Also, it would be helpful to ground the population report data in some way. Does PSA make "Total Cards Submitted" data available?

Vargha

Here's what I have for SMR data:

DATE PSA5/PSA6/PSA7/PSA8/PSA9

11/2000 $7K/9K/14K/30K/70K

09/01 $7K/9K/14.25K/31.5K/72K

11/01 $7K/9K/14.5K/32K/72K

12/01 $7K/9K/14.5K/32K/72K

01/02-09/02 $7K/9K/14.5K/32.5K/72K

02/04 $7.5K/9.75K/15K/35K/85K

12/04 $8.25K/10K/16.5K/38.5K/95K