Linked here: A new market report from John Maben. Interesting.

oreville

Interesting indeed. I have been expecting the market to peak the summer of 2005 and take a breather. But now, take a look at John's thinking:

Now Arriving: "The Boom of 04-06".

RYK

Interesting and well-written report.

It does little to change my strategy (buy nice coins for my collection), but it's good to know what the dealers and market makers are thinking.

Edited to add: If JM's prediction are true, it means that I will be paying more and/or buying fewer coins.

morgannut2

Interesting report. Some agreement with what Maurice Rosen Advisory is saying.

JohnMaben

Hmmm... I haven't read his latest report yet, but he and I are frequently "on the same page".

morgannut2

John: You were both literally in the same 12 pages in August/Sept. when you were nice enough to give Maurice an interview. Intelligent market reports are always a high point on these boards for me. Thanks!

LeeG

Nice report. Pretty much in agreement with everyone else. What I found interesting was this: "We're pleased to announce that we have added eBay to our numismatic sales repertoire". A definate "Favorite Seller" listing for me! Lee

quarterjack

John, very informative. Just hung up the phone with Dennis(Jade Coin) he's still at Balt. activity was very strong according to him also.
Looks like the train is still picking up steam.

Dave

roadrunner

John's premise is that if gold continues on an upward path a coin market explosion is a given. Depending on a deflation (recession) or inflation secenario first to come, determines what occurs in coins and gold.

I have no doubts that gold & silver are going to boom in the coming years. This seems all but assured based on the world's economic conditions and the faultering federal reserve note. I've given some thought to the idea that only true tangibles that act like cash (silver, gold, platinum, as well as "lowly" copper and the other PM's) will hold up in a coming crisis. Will rare coins flourish in this environment? I think it is becoming more likely that they will. Inflation is breeding and is not yet transparent do the amount of out dollars still hiding off-shore and that we have monkeyed interest rates for several years. The world have been duped for now to accept a 2% FED rate when in all actuality it should be 5-6% just to guarantee a decent rate of return to foreign investors. This difference has to correct and soon. The fact that we own the world's reserve currency is the only reason the FED has been able to play this game for this long. The rest of the world offers those higher rates and they do have inflation! We "don't have" inflation because our "published" numbers say we don't.

There is no doubt the transfer of wealth from paper to tangibles is occurring. Gold is leading the way and will continue for several years or more. However this won't be obvious to the average consumer until later 2005 or even into 2006.

A stat: there are $184,000 US dollars out there for every ounce of gold in existence. That doesn't even count foreign currencies nor the fact that the US only owns a small fraction of the total gold.

And I like the fact that John likes type coins. These were the bread and butter coins in the 1977-1980 and 1982-1990 markets. Most have been left behind in the dust with the Registry sets. Collectors have been heard and have driven this first phase of the market with the REG set phenomena. First quarter of the game goes to the collector hands down.
Silently, over the past few years, investors/speculators/and even a few collectors have been pulling all the nice type off the market. Notice that monster registry sets have been coming to the market in droves. Yet how many such "type" sets have you seen come to market in the past 3 years? Type is still sleeping while Lincolns, Buffs, and gold gather the excitement. But for how long?

roadrunner

coppercoins

Interesting report...I like it.