A suggestion/possible hedge for those of you who wish to buy gold type coins...
coinguy1
Posts: 13,484 ✭✭✭
Please note, I am not suggesting that anyone should or should not be buying gold type coins - that is NOT the purpose of this thread.
However, for those of you who are contemplating doing so, I would suggest that you consider buying some of the scarcer/better dates, a number of which can be obtained at fairly modest premiums over the (far more) common date issues.
As just one example:
Currently PCGS MS65 common date With Motto Saint Gaudens $20 pieces (the most common date being a 1924 with a PCGS MS65 population of more than 13,000 pieces) have a high sight-unseen bid of $1150, a high sight-seen bid of $1330 and a low ask price of $1390 on CCE (the electronic trading exchange).
The 1914-S, on the other hand, currently has a high sight-unseen bid of $1410 (22% over that of the sight-unseen type bid mentioned above) and a high sight-seen bid of $1600 (20% above the sight-seen bid noted above). But, its PCGS MS65 population is only 474, making it more than 27 times scarcer/tougher than the 1924!!!
Thus far, a number of the better date Saints (such as the 1914-S) have not participated in the current run-up to the extent that the type coins have. However, if the common type coins continue to rise in price, it is a near-given that a number of the other better/tougher issues will rise too. And, if/when the common type coins decline in price, the better dates, with their significantly lower populations might very well hold their own and thus offer some downside protection.
So, if you are going to jump into this segment of the market, my unsolicited advice is to look for those better/tougher issues which can be bought for small premiums over the price of the far more common/type issues. Happy hunting. But remember, as the saying goes, "it's a jungle out there."
However, for those of you who are contemplating doing so, I would suggest that you consider buying some of the scarcer/better dates, a number of which can be obtained at fairly modest premiums over the (far more) common date issues.
As just one example:
Currently PCGS MS65 common date With Motto Saint Gaudens $20 pieces (the most common date being a 1924 with a PCGS MS65 population of more than 13,000 pieces) have a high sight-unseen bid of $1150, a high sight-seen bid of $1330 and a low ask price of $1390 on CCE (the electronic trading exchange).
The 1914-S, on the other hand, currently has a high sight-unseen bid of $1410 (22% over that of the sight-unseen type bid mentioned above) and a high sight-seen bid of $1600 (20% above the sight-seen bid noted above). But, its PCGS MS65 population is only 474, making it more than 27 times scarcer/tougher than the 1924!!!
Thus far, a number of the better date Saints (such as the 1914-S) have not participated in the current run-up to the extent that the type coins have. However, if the common type coins continue to rise in price, it is a near-given that a number of the other better/tougher issues will rise too. And, if/when the common type coins decline in price, the better dates, with their significantly lower populations might very well hold their own and thus offer some downside protection.
So, if you are going to jump into this segment of the market, my unsolicited advice is to look for those better/tougher issues which can be bought for small premiums over the price of the far more common/type issues. Happy hunting. But remember, as the saying goes, "it's a jungle out there."
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Thus far, a number of the better date Saints (such as the 1914-S) have not participated in the current run-up to the extent that the type coins have.
Mark:
Regarding your quote above, do you have any views on why the better date Saints have not participated in the current run-up in prices? I would think that because the pure metal content in the better date Saints is the same as the metal content in a common date Saint, the prices would move fairly in tandem. But maybe I'm wrong. Is the demand for common date Saints so much greater than better date Saints that the prices of the common coins run up faster (even taking into account the incredible amounts of common Saints in existance to theoretically meet that demand)? Thanks!
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>Is the demand for common date Saints so much greater than better date Saints that the prices of the common coins run up faster (even taking into account the incredible amounts of common Saints in existance to theoretically meet that demand)? >>
Longacre, I believe your theory/possible explanation is correct.
Additionally, I would guess that many of the current (non-dealer) "retail" buyers of large quantities of gold type coins probably know little about what they're buying, including the fact that there are better dates, etc.
I would like to change my answer.
From an intellectual/collector standpoint, it is more fulfilling to own an MS-65 Saint that is pop 475 than one that is pop 13,000 (to use your example). The reality is, however, that date collectors will always be able to easily find the 14-S in MS-65, and I would expect that any premium would be modest and would stay modest. At any one particular point in time, yes, the price differential may vary, but I am not so sure that it varies enough such that when you sell the coin you will likely realize the difference. From a pure financial standpoint, it might always be best to stay with the generic date. If I were going to buy one nice Saint, as a collector, I would buy one with exceptional eye appeal regardless of the date. (In fact, I recently bought one like that from some coinguy
roadrunner
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
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<< <i>For all it's worth, in anything less than the very long term, the differential in values between dirt common and semi-common dates has little to do with the way these coins are collected and everything to do with the way the coins are marketed. >>
I agree!
MS-65 Saints are a popular item to market, and go over well with those investors new to the coin market. It takes much more marketing (or more new investors with a saint's patience) to produce 500 or 1,000 collectors working on a high grade date/mint set of a series.
Many will pay the premium over gold spot for common date circulated Saints. Quite a few of these will also agree to an additional premium for the better grade coins from this series. But how many will collect (as oppose to invest) and pay an additional premium for the better dates? Many dealers know that they will have a tough time selling slightly better dates for a big premium above the price of the common dates in a given grade, unless the coin is almost a pop top or a very tough date.
In my area of interest, I have found very different results. I collect Barber Dimes, which I chose becuse these small - some say boring -- coins are not well suited to marketing. There are, however enough Barber Dime collectors to keep the price of the key dates and semi-key dates rising in a good market. We all seem to have the same dates on our want lists, and have many duplicates of the common dates.
As a result, the most common date Barber Dimes are tough to sell at close to CDN bid, but there is much interest in better examples of the semi-key and key date coins. Bullion prices have very little to do with this market (which strays from the thread's title), when we're talking coins with a melt value of 50 to 55 cents. Still, I find very few people buying low grade common Barber Dimes for 2X melt. Uncleaned VF-XF dimes often bring only half of CDN bid if they are the most common dates, while the key dates bring well above ask in these grades, Heck, even the key dates in AG bring G-4 CDN prices, despite these coins being marketed much at all.
I must disagree that "the differential in values between dirt common and semi-common dates has little to do with the way these coins are collected and everything to do with the way the coins are marketed". Collector supply and demand still does make a difference in some series.
<< <i>For all it's worth, in anything less than the very long term, the differential in values between dirt common and semi-common dates has little to do with the way these coins are collected and everything to do with the way the coins are marketed. >>
Shhhhhhhhhhh!
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Coinguy; As a Morgan collector primarily, I find the modest premium for a lower pop gold coin to a common one to be astonishing (ie. stupid low). The only thing that has held be back from gold is the horror stories of counterfits, lasering, AU's in MS holders, etc. etc. And some coins I see in auction previews look overgraded to say the least. It's not like Morgans are without problems, but I am wondering why so many others shy away from later gold as a collector coin. Is there a good video like Bob Campbells one on altered Morgans (primarily), or a book with great pictures that might lead some of us to collect these attractive coins with some confidence? >>
Morgannut2, I don't think that collectors do shy away from gold coins, though certainly Morgans are more popular, in terms of the number of collectors.
To my knowledge, the lasering problem you mentioned pertains only to the Proof gold coins, not business strikes. And, over-grading certainly isn't confined to the gold coin segment of the market. The counterfeit problem can be avoided by buying pieces certified by the major/highly respected grading companies. Sorry, I don't have an answer to your video question.
The other collector is the set. This individual has to have SERIOUSLY deep pockets as there are so many super high ticket coins needed to complete the series. This collector would be looking for 66s, not 65s if they have sufficient funds to contemplate the entire series.
Thus we have those who can afford the very best along with those who have no motive to pay anything beyond the least common. IMHO this is what depresses (and will continue to depress) the margin between better date Saints and common Saints. I foresee no change to how things presently stand.