Maybe the mint sets are already gone.
cladking
Posts: 28,636 ✭✭✭✭✭
I've been figuring for a couple decades now that the day would come that the mint
sets are effectively "used up". These are virtually the sole source of most clad dimes
and quarters so if it occurs it will be a momentous event. Obviously these were made
in sufficient quantities that the intact sets will not be scarce or rare in the foreseeable
future but the attrition to natural destruction and to intentional destruction has been
extremely high due to their low prices and lack of favor. The fact that most have long
been worth more as singles or as pocket change has hardly helped their survival.
Most of these sets enter the market at the wholesale level and originate in estate sales
or are simply taken to a coin shop when the original purchaser passes on. Few people
save or collect the sets since they have long proven to be poor "investments" and are
considered uncollectible by the mainstream hobby.
There has been a rapidly growing trend in the last couple years which seems to have
passed mostly unheralded; choice attractive and gem sets are getting decidedly tough
to find of many dates. It used to be that one 1969 mint set out of eight had a nice chBU
(MS-63) or better Philly quarter in it. By 2000 this had dropped a little and the set was
getting a little harder to find but these were still readily available, but in the last year I
don't believe I seen a single choice coin of this date except in one large batch of original
sets. Dealers rarely have this date any more and it does not show up in estates with the
sort of regularity it used to.
Is it possible that this process has already started with the '69 and '70 sets (when was
the last time you saw a choice '70-D half?) and we're too close to it to see?
sets are effectively "used up". These are virtually the sole source of most clad dimes
and quarters so if it occurs it will be a momentous event. Obviously these were made
in sufficient quantities that the intact sets will not be scarce or rare in the foreseeable
future but the attrition to natural destruction and to intentional destruction has been
extremely high due to their low prices and lack of favor. The fact that most have long
been worth more as singles or as pocket change has hardly helped their survival.
Most of these sets enter the market at the wholesale level and originate in estate sales
or are simply taken to a coin shop when the original purchaser passes on. Few people
save or collect the sets since they have long proven to be poor "investments" and are
considered uncollectible by the mainstream hobby.
There has been a rapidly growing trend in the last couple years which seems to have
passed mostly unheralded; choice attractive and gem sets are getting decidedly tough
to find of many dates. It used to be that one 1969 mint set out of eight had a nice chBU
(MS-63) or better Philly quarter in it. By 2000 this had dropped a little and the set was
getting a little harder to find but these were still readily available, but in the last year I
don't believe I seen a single choice coin of this date except in one large batch of original
sets. Dealers rarely have this date any more and it does not show up in estates with the
sort of regularity it used to.
Is it possible that this process has already started with the '69 and '70 sets (when was
the last time you saw a choice '70-D half?) and we're too close to it to see?
Tempus fugit.
0
Comments
<< <i>... And while you are at it start the CladKing store so I can buy some of the zillions of rarities you have tucked away
I might have a couple dozen coins that I'd consider modern rarities in my collections
or set aside. There are a few hundred condition rarities and many hundreds of
nice ordinary gems. If I had it to do again I'd put more effort into finding the rarities
and varieties and less into quantity. I'd have just paid the price for the rare coins
when they appeared rather than searched for them.
Selling these coins should be almost as much fun as buying them was. Perhaps it
won't be too much longer now.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
The Lincoln cent store:
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<< <i>PM me when.
Me too!
the only hole in your line of thinking is that you're looking in a very limited market area, that being a small radius of where you live. to be able to really make an accurate prediction would require a much, much wider search area, in fact it would require searching and noting trends across the country. now, perhaps that might be attained to a dgree from asking members here what their search experience tells them, but all the same, these sets are really more plentiful than we can know, due largely to the numbers which are hoarded by collectors/speculators/ordinary citizens who aren't tipping their hand. many collectors bought the sets, put them away and forgot about them with no reason to pull them out. they're still there as evidenced by what i see as a steady flow at small shows and club meeting auctions in my little search area. of course they may be the same sets going 'round and 'round but i doubt it.
there are simply too many for the bottom to have been reached so soon, just my opinion of course.
al h.
Thanks guys.
<< <i>
the only hole in your line of thinking is that you're looking in a very limited market area, that being a small radius of where you live. to be able to really make an accurate prediction would require a much, much wider search area, in fact it would require searching and noting trends across the country. now, perhaps that might be attained to a dgree from asking members here what their search experience tells them, but all the same, these sets are really more plentiful than we can know, due largely to the numbers which are hoarded by collectors/speculators/ordinary citizens who aren't tipping their hand. many collectors bought the sets, put them away and forgot about them with no reason to pull them out. they're still there as evidenced by what i see as a steady flow at small shows and club meeting auctions in my little search area. of course they may be the same sets going 'round and 'round but i doubt it.
there are simply too many for the bottom to have been reached so soon, just my opinion of course.
al h.
Keets (Al):
There have been a few geographical differences in the past and it's quite possible
there is now. I haven't gotten out to see if there are differences which is part of
the reason I'm asking. Most of the differences I've seen in the past seemed to be
related to how actively the sets in an area were being pursued by collectors and
by other buyers. Some areas would have mostly nice original sets and some would
be a little more picked over. Some of these differences could also be the result of
chance or the propensity of dealers to ship coins more quickly. Moderns also seem
to be a little more popular in the Western part of the country.
It's difficult to believe that any geographical difference in availability or supply can
be anything other than temporary because these sets are shipped from areas with
excesses to areas with deficits. Certainly this area may be experiencing a deficit at
this time.
There are sets which have been put away by collectors, speculators, general public,
and Shop At Home customers but I'm betting that the aggregate number has been
pretty small because the sets have long been unpopular. The TV people have placed
about 30,000 of each date over the last few years but it's difficult to believe that these
sets would qualify as "original". The general public has been indifferent to coins and
speculators for the main part believe these sets have little potential. This leaves the
original purchasers as one of the largest holders of these sets. The '69 set is thirty
five years old so the demographic which purchased the bulk of the sets in those days
are mostly gone. These sets were purchased by middle aged (and older)men in and
out of the hobby.
There are also holdings by long time and shorter time collectors and speculators. Over
the years there have been people who suggested the clads were scarce and might
someday have some value and this would get people interested in setting aside coins
and sets. I'm thinking that when you consider that it was not generally known that
mint sets coins tend to be superior to the coins in BU rolls that most investors would
simply set aside bags and rolls of coins, but these simply are not seen. If people didn't
bother setting aside coins at face value then how many people would pay the sometimes
substantial premiums to set aside mint sets? This leads me to believe that the coins sim-
ply were not saved in any meaningful way.
RS Yeoman, John J Pittman and others were recommending the coins or collecting them,
but for the main part their voices went unheeded. There are at least a handfull of peo-
ple who have "taken a position" in the coins but it seems difficult to believe that anyone
had the courage and storage room to set aside substantial numbers of coins. The ef-
fort and time to do this is very substantial and the cost is not inconsequential.
So where are the sets and why are the prices now a little softer than they were a year ago
if supplies are drying up? I'm wondering if the price isn't a refection of the fact that the
sets are tending to get a little picked over. But as for supplies, I'm still of the belief that
what you see is what you get. There are no significant numbers of the original sets and
that there are few sets set aside as speculation. It's obvious that the demand is still
growing so we should see in fairly short order if there's any validity to this line of thought.
For the night crew...
<< <i>
there are simply too many for the bottom to have been reached so soon, just my opinion of course.
al h.
The real bottom may never really be reached if for no other reason that there are
a lot of people who collect mint products in their original form. My guess is that at
some point in the near future (or recent past) that the number of sets enterring the
market will be smaller than the number of sets bing collected intact.