Question about NGC weighting systems vs PCGS

segoja

As I look through the NGC weighting system for set registry's, it dawned on me that NCG has a better system for getting at the real rarity weighting based on two factors: Date rarity AND Grade rarity.

I think this is a better mouse trap than the one created by PCGS, and here's are my reason's why!

1) Condition census coins like a 73-S Ike in MS69 are given a very high weighting at NGC, vs a more common 73-S in MS68. The MS69 is pop 2 (really 1) and the MS68 is pop around 600, so makes sense one would get a significant amount more points for the pop 1 coin.

2) Tough coins are weighted higher than easier coins to find...same in both systems

3) Superlatives are weighted according to how tough they are by date, not by series, making the real tough coins in high grade a higher weighting. This gives a better picture of true rarity.

4) In the PCGS registry, a lesser coin actually weights greater than a tougher coin. eg a 77-D Ike in 66 vs a 72-S in MS69. moving from a MS65 77-D to a MS66 77-D is worth more points in the PCGS system than moving from a 73-S in MS68 to a 73-S in MS69. The toguh move is the 73-S, so why should it be worth less points?

Overall, I like the PCGS registry, but it seems they could learn a littel from the NGC weighting systems.

My question is...Which system is the best and why???

fcloud

It seems PCGS uses a simple system that doesn't weigh the coins as well as NGC, but hey you can list your PCGS sets at both sites.

NGC does weight much more accurately.

Cameonut

Segoja
I agree with you - I have had exactly the same thoughts - especially with cameos. NGC has a far more realistic system than PCGS.

One example (of many, many) a proof 68 '57 Lincoln is worth the same number of points as a proof 66 dcam '57 Lincoln at PCGS. Is this a true indicator of rarity >> points?

I think not.

The problem is (IMHO) that many of the Registry sets play the game of the 'most points' regardless of what they truly want to collect. Proof vs. cameo vs. Deep Cameo - the more points the better for some. Not to say that it is wrong - PCGS just does not reward rarity in the same way that NGC does.

For my money - and this is MY opinion. I like deep cameo contrast over brilliant proofs because of its overall superior eye appeal. Put a brilliant proof next to a deep cameo proof in a case at a major show and see what coin gets the most activity.

JMHO
Cameonut

saintguru

I have advocated the NCG system as a better one since I started. It does recognze the value of grades as they become much rarer. But PCGS is not going to adopt the NGC system anytime soon. But it IS better and rewards the "fine" coins more fairly.

COINDOG

Yes it's true- the NGC system is far more accurate.
However, this applies mainly to the modern coins. The truely great morgans , mercuries, walking liberties are not listed in the registry of either service. For the most part they are collected as type coins.

saintguru

?????? I'd revisit your last comment. ?????? They sure ARE in the Registries!!

Typetone

Jim:

PCGS is more weighted to date/mintmark rarity, and less to condition rarity. Your example is a good example. I like the PCGS system. As you have pointed out many times, there is often little or no difference between a pop 1 of some common date like the 73-S and a superior example with one lower grade. It is nice to have a registry where one isn't overly rewarded for spending a fortune for little if any quality upgrade. Having said that, the best sets still get the rewards. The top sets in most series already have most of theeasy upgrades. The competition usually boils down to who can get a pop 1 in some common date. Even if you only get a small reward, it is enough to pull ahead. Again, your example makes it clear. There is no set competing with you in IKEs that is looking to move a 77-D from 65 to 66. Any set seriously competing with you already has the 77-D in 66, and very likely in 67. To compete with you or JC, one would need to consider a pop 1 purchase, and that one extra point is probably going to be the difference. Or, to put it another way, it is inconceivable to me that a serious IKE collector who is buying the 73-S in 69, doesn't already have the 77-D in 66 or 67.

Greg

COINDOG

<< <i>?????? I'd revisit your last comment. ?????? They sure ARE in the Registries!! >>



A few- very few . Most of the best coins are collected as type, or have been donated. There are some good sets, but none that would compete with Eliasberg, or norweb. I collect mostly type, and can state from experience that most of the better coins are held as type coins !

tradedollarnut

There are some good sets, but none that would compete with Eliasberg, or norweb.

Not many people collect the way that Eliasberg or Norweb collected - medium to fairly high grade examples of as many coins as they could get with proofs allowed for Philadelphia issues. Coin collecting has evolved toward high grade individual sets or series - and few, if any, mix circ strikes with proofs any more.

The Richmond Collection was about as close as anyone will come to Eliasberg for a good while.

COINDOG

<< <i>There are some good sets, but none that would compete with Eliasberg, or norweb.

Not many people collect the way that Eliasberg or Norweb collected - medium to fairly high grade examples of as many coins as they could get with proofs allowed for Philadelphia issues. Coin collecting has evolved toward high grade individual sets or series - and few, if any, mix circ strikes with proofs any more.

The Richmond Collection was about as close as anyone will come to Eliasberg for a good while. >>



I Agree ! Good Point !!

Typetone

TDN:

I would suspect that many type collectors mix proof and cs coins. That is how I collect. I usually try for the best proof example I can find. However, I will buy a cs coin when a proof doesn't exist for the type (eg SLQs), when a proof example is just to rare and expensive (eg drapped bust dollars), or when I just happen to find a great cs example, and don't see the point of swapping. For example, my MS66 RD IHC is as nice an example as I have seen. I have looked at some PR66s and a few 67s, but so far have not found an obvious improvment. Of course, I realize that series collectors rarely mix proof and cs pieces.

Greg

tradedollarnut

Many more type collectors mix proof and circ strikes than series collectors - absolutely. My comment was in context of Eliasberg and Norweb - they weren't type collectors!

monsterman

>>>As I look through the NGC weighting system for set registry's, it dawned on me that NCG has a better system for getting at the real rarity weighting based on two factors: Date rarity AND Grade rarity.
>>>>

personally i couldnt agree more...ngc has a much better system

case in point...when this whole registry thing started pcgs asked me for my imput and ideas......i have to tell you nobody thought the registry system would impact the market like it has so the guy handling it at pcgs ( in the begining ) was very low level..infact he was close to a runner......my system i came up had to be universally used throught out all sets and it basically broke a set down into 5 parts ( 20% each ) where as you got 5 fold the grade for the rarest 1/5th of the set....4 fold the grade for the second all the way down to the last 1/5th where you got 1 fold

the fact is that the highest ranked sets are also the most expensive that being said when i made my system my goal was to make a system that was fair....pcgs`s system they began with ( and still used today was flawed ) and here is how...in my morgan set there was guy who had my set by a few points as i had some generic coins in 67 and not 68 like he did...there were about 5 coins..the fact was i had the keys that were higher graded than his and one example was the 92-s in 67 i had...he had a 66...the fact was i could sell my 92-s in 67 and buy a 66 like his....upgrade 6 of my coins to 68s and pass him.....and put 100,000 into my pocket while doing it....well there is proof positive something was and still is wrong with the system.....thus i am at ngc now....where they mathematically calculate all the sets rankings...PLUS THEY HAVE THE STAR* which connotes even a better coin from an eye apeal factor

food for thought

there are some who come into the market with a large checkbook then buy all the grades and register at pcgs and then get rated as the #1 set....NOT........i am refering to joe schieszler`s commem set..problem is that if it is marketed right then most believe it....the fact is the jfs set while it had some great coins leaves something to be desired over all...he bought some very nice coins i can assure you...but he also had some coins that were not even close ....in commems ( and many other sets as well ) there are coins in 67 that can cost you 1,000 and monsters can cost you 6,000....thus one can conclude with the pcgs system you can get buy the #1 for a lot less money than a compeditor who`s set was worth more....which just cant be....ngc however has the STAR* and it gives a point reward for great eye appeal.....therefore its a better system

btw...for the record all of those 6 generic coins of mine upgraded to 68 coins....and had they had the STAR* like ngc awards to superior coins ...which they were... i wouldnt of had to consider selling my 92-s in 67....and puting 100,000 into my pocket just to be correctly ranked

Typetone

Monsterman:

Good points. However, at NGC you do not get a bonus for a PCGS coin. It gets the same consideration as an NGC coin of the same grade. Now, while some NGC coins are equal to or better than a PCGS coin, in general a PCGS coin is a little better quality, and of course more expensive. So, the problem with the NGC registry is that it may rank a set too low that has all or most PCGS coins. There might not be an answer short of an actual judging. However, I normally consider the #1 PCGS set to be the best, or close to it.

Greg

monsterman

Now, while some NGC coins are equal to or better than a PCGS coin, in general a PCGS coin is a little better quality,>>>>

sorry to disagree but there are dozens of examples ( actually hundreds make that thousands ) .....not to be contraversial here but you need to understand the market...the 2 services play off each other making themselves millions and the only 3 people who win in this game are the servies....the dealers ( dealers who stay are smart or they would be dealers anymore..the bad ones go do something else and arent dealers anymore ) and the smart collector who stays in the market for a long time and buys great coins....all others will pay the freight for the party

case in point

1) there is grade inflation where as all the services are doing is ranking coins and annointing the best of the best in an order ( aka a grade )....over a long period of time ( as in decades since 1986 and still going strong )...if anyone does not agree than they dont know the market ....GRADEFLATION IS A FACT...PERIOD

2) ngc coins go to pcgs and pcgs coins go to ngc all the time seeking a higher grade...and there are more dummies out there than smart ones and the dummies buy only one service`s coins..the smart ones buy ...ngc....annacs....icg...segs...pcgs..or any other slab that warrants a purchase according to the coin`s merits....and it is those dummies who buy one slab be it ngc ..pcgs..or any other slab.... that pay for the party

ngc coins go to pcgs and pcgs coins go to ngc all the time seeking a higher grade...is called breaking the cement ceiling ..aka pop 1....upgraders spend hundreds of thousands of dollars per show to do just that....and the fact is if pcgs is ready then the ceiling will be broken....imho...( which i believe is fact and you all can decide what you believe )...pcgs is too hard on coins and undergrades a lot....ngc is more acurate and will put the right grade on the coin more often than not...so if the upgrader fails enough at pcgs sending the coin in numerous times...it goes to ngc for the right grade...then ...i get to buy it at a discount.....in time it goes back to pcgs for cross...and in time it will cross...i can assure you.....if you think im wrong...THINK AGAIN....then in time its ready for the upgrade again....if pcgs doesnt do it and the upgrader gives up...off it goes to ngc who will put the right grade on it AGAIN...ONLY THIS TIME A HIGHER GRADE..AS IT IS A NEW ERA IN THE GRADEFLATION THEORY....in time it ( the same coin ) will go back to pcgs for cross....which in time it will.....imagine jim halprin worked for you in 1988 and only bought you very high end coins regardless of the slab....i can assure you by 1994 all would be in new holders with higher grades.....ok ...hows this...you didnt higher jim until 1994....again i can assure you all would be in new holders with higher grades by 2000...ok...hows this...you didnt higher jim unitl 2004...what do you expect in 2009 your coins to grade at.....HELLO...btw jim halprin won the pcgs grading contest of all the pros who entered

now if you believe in my theory then you can see why dealers salivate over fresh deals ( the ones that have been in the safe for 15 years )....in those deals they quote the price as per the grade on the coin and strong sheet money to the seller.....problem is that 66 coin is now a 68 and that 600 sheet price just increased to 20,000 for a 2 point upgrade...happens everyday...and who lost ...the uninformed seller .....

3) here is another dumb thing that just happened....i had a coin in baltimore and i was offered 7,000 for it in an ngc holder...i said no....i want 14,000....they said go fish..i said why....my guy only buys pcgs...i said what???..look at this puppy....he said cross it...so i did...that afternoon i was offered 20,000 for it by another dealer and the first guy lost out on a monster...and the second guy paid too much....go figure....things like that happen all the time....heck i only bought the coin in an ngc holder in 2000 and it was a moose then and obviously still is.....and i paid 4,800 for it to boot so it was a 4 bagger

you see everyone who knows the market can win....even one of lesser ilk such as me....BUT I KNOW THE GAME!! AND HOW ITS PLAYED

THUS THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS ARE TRUE

1) if you spend a long time i the market and buy quality coins...you will profit

2) if your a good numismatist all your coins will cross....because you bought quality in the first place

3) buy the coin not the plastic



and of course more expensive.>>>>

the reasons for this is simple and they are 2 fold

1) there are more undergraded coins in pcgs holders thus more shots for dealers to pick your box off...so they bid higher...fact is upgraders buy more and own more ngc coins than pcgs coins.....why is that????....they buy them cheaper...why is that....demand....as there are more dummies than smart ones

2) there are more market makers because of #1 thus a bigger market.....all trying to find scores



So, the problem with the NGC registry is that it may rank a set too low that has all or most PCGS coins.>>>

not so as its not up to ngc to say grace over pcgs`s coins..only theirs



However, I normally consider the #1 PCGS set to be the best, or close to it.>>>

key word here is close to it... some pcgs sets are the best in the world...and some ngc sets are the best in the world....and it varies....my goal is simple...i wanna make knowledgeable collectors and dealers drool when they see my coins...thats all iu ever wanted to do!!


personally i have put all my coins into ngc holders because they look better in white.....i have spent 2 decades searching...waiting....lobbying.. negotiating ....and everything else to get the best i could....and i can assure you if i ever sell them they will be appreciated ...dollar wise...and it will be up to the next owner to put them into which ever holder he/she chooses.....but also you can assure you that i bought the coin...not the plastic and everyone of them is a moose




monsterman

IrishMike

Great advice, I think you just smoked the "PCGS" only mentality with a bid dose of reality.

Typetone

Monsterman:

I agree with everything you said. However, you made the point that NGC tends to grade accurately while PCGS tends to undergrade. If that is true, then it follows that PCGS coins are on average better quality for a specific grade on the holder.

Do you think that the grade inflation you see will ultimately destroy the market?

Greg

monsterman

I agree with everything you said. However, you made the point that NGC tends to grade accurately while PCGS tends to undergrade. If that is true, then it follows that PCGS coins are on average better quality for a specific grade on the holder.>>>>>>your right..however when i call an appraiser to appraise my house i want it done accurately..i dont want some shister coming at me with some lowball figure because of a lowball appraisal......the only people who get hurt are the clones when they pay too much

Do you think that the grade inflation you see will ultimately destroy the market? >>>>>not at all....its great for those who have time in the market...and even better for those smart ones with time in the market

monsterman