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What's Your Age? Will The Hobby Ever Die Out?
frankhardy
Posts: 8,046 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was just thinking - I wonder what everybody's age is?
I just don't see kids or young people collecting very much. All I see is kids buying that Pokeman crap at Wal-Mart. When I was a kid, I couldn't wait to buy a pack of 1985 Topps or 1986 Donruss to see what I could get out of it. I remember asking for cards for Christmas. I remember one year my dad bought me a 1985 Fleer Dwight Gooden RC. That was a hot card for a couple of years. I still cherish that card to this day. I wouldn't sell it for a million bucks (well, I might consider that!) I still have every card my dad and mother ever bought me for Christmas! I am now getting my little four year old boy into it a little. I let him open a couple of packs this morning.
By the way, I am 29 yrs. old.
I just don't see kids or young people collecting very much. All I see is kids buying that Pokeman crap at Wal-Mart. When I was a kid, I couldn't wait to buy a pack of 1985 Topps or 1986 Donruss to see what I could get out of it. I remember asking for cards for Christmas. I remember one year my dad bought me a 1985 Fleer Dwight Gooden RC. That was a hot card for a couple of years. I still cherish that card to this day. I wouldn't sell it for a million bucks (well, I might consider that!) I still have every card my dad and mother ever bought me for Christmas! I am now getting my little four year old boy into it a little. I let him open a couple of packs this morning.
By the way, I am 29 yrs. old.
Shane
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And when I was young and collecting (around 1990), we were just starting to see the chaos of card companies. Topps, O Pee Chee, Upper Deck, Pro Set, Score, Bowman, Fleer, Skybox, Hoops, Parkhurst. No wonder I lost touch for about 10 years- I couldn't figure out what was going on.
People who were collecting in the 50's/60's/70's had far less choice then they do now and in my opinion it made it much more attractive.
The market is burnt out.
mb
1963T Dodgers in 8s
Pre-war Brooklyn 5s or higher
1963T Dodgers in 8s
Pre-war Brooklyn 5s or higher
stuff 30 years from now. I just don't see the benefit to the hobby if cards are SO scarce that only the top of the food chain economicaly
can afford them.
I am 35
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
The future of baseball card collectors, in my opinion, will see more collectors entering the market at later ages than they used to (mid-late 20's instead of early teen's). There are not many 13 year old kids today buying packs of cards to read the cards, learn the players, build a set, or any of the other fun things that we did with the cards when we were 11, 12 & 13. I think this is the reason that vintage cards will flourish in the future. The people aren't going to want to collect cards that are easily had, as there's no fun to that. To me personally, one of the most exciting parts of collecting the cards are finding them, at least, finding the ones you want in the condition you want, and only vintage cards can provide this. The new stuff will not be able to hold it's value, all the subsets will water-down the demand, as people are not going to want to take the time to become experts on every single subset and limited edition, or jersey or autographed card issued. What little value these new cards may have (I personally think it's all worthless, including the autographs because a living person can sign an unlimited number of autographs) will eventually become significantly less.
just my opinion; that and 3 cents will get you a nickle cigar....
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
I am 30, and l too made an exit out of the hobby in the early 90s; I actually hung around until 1993. I put so much effort into getting the stars from that time: Clemens, Boggs, Gwynn, Mattingly, Canseco (gasp), and the tail end of Ryan, Rose, Schmidt, Seaver, Jackson, etc. I also jumped all over the Griffey JR, Frank Thomas and Juan Gonzalez trains, what a difference 10 yrs makes. I didn't even think about cards from the late 60's/early 70s, let alone vintage then. Why would I pay $10, $100 or more for something that never moved in the price guide, were in conditions that obviously couldn't rival the new issues, were not something that my friends liked or collected, and at a card show, were banished to the 1/2 off case of only a select few dealers? All those things were important to me... then. Now I look back and I can't believe that the majority of it is "worthless", sans my Mattingly's, being that he is my favorite player those cards will always have a special place. Like many of you I have shifted my collecting focus to "vintage", definitions of which will vary, and it would have been nice to have been able to use some of what I have to help strengthen that effort. Who knows, maybe some of it will.
As for the hobby, I don't think it will ever die out, it will just evolve. Over production, brand saturation, pack price increases, inserts overload, the resurrection of vintage, EBay, and the advent of grading have all had their effects, good or bad, on the hobby, but its here to stay.
Here's to one day the hope of an overwhelming desire for 1988 Donruss, in NM condition.
We'd all be rich!!!
Chris
that I am not making a mistake starting a 1978 Topps PSA 9 or better set. Wil I at least break even in 15 years ???
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I think my kids (at least my boys) will learn to appreciate my collection if I take the Ken Burns approach to sharing the cards with them in about 2 to 3 years. It is also funny how kids like things more when they learn they are worth real dinero.
mb
1963T Dodgers in 8s
Pre-war Brooklyn 5s or higher
<< <i> It is also funny how kids like things more when they learn they are worth real dinero.
mb >>
ain't that the truth
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I think a complete PSA 9 1978 set will always be a marketable asset. There will always be someone who will want a set like that. Whether it appreciates or depreciates will depend on your approach and how long it takes you build the set. I think the real question that needs to be answered is what is motivating you to build the set. If it is for the fun of remembering those cards and players from when you were a kid, then I say take the plunge!
mb
1963T Dodgers in 8s
Pre-war Brooklyn 5s or higher
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
-CU references- andersonscards, masterzzz1, seth2720, BrawnyMan, VezinaKid
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
The caveman probably collected dinosaur teeth.
In light of Ron Artest - I have clarity on my position: Love the Game, not the players.
In the material world: nothing gives me more pleasure than collecting.
Same as Morrellman and what he said.
your friend
Mike
<< <i>softparade,
I think a complete PSA 9 1978 set will always be a marketable asset. There will always be someone who will want a set like that. Whether it appreciates or depreciates will depend on your approach and how long it takes you build the set. I think the real question that needs to be answered is what is motivating you to build the set. If it is for the fun of remembering those cards and players from when you were a kid, then I say take the plunge!
mb >>
I was 9 when my father bought me packs of these every Sunday. Then I flipped them with friends and put them in the spokes of
my bikes tires. Same old sorry story LOL. Yes, I am fond of all the mid 70's sets for this reason
Edited to say that I plan on 18 -24 months before I am done. May be optomistic, but thats the beginning plan!
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
After I got married in '91, I rediscovered my collectiton and started buying new cards again. I collected mostly new issues until about 1993. It only took two years for me to get sick of a million different issues, "chase" cards, and "premium" cards. I was disgusted by the dealers hoarding Candy Moldonado cards by the hundreds out of "speculation", while vintage cards sat gathering dust. For a while in '94 and '95, I attended the weekly card show in a nearby town with $25 or $30 and scarfed down every non-Mantle I could find, picking up nice Banks, Killebrew, Musial, Aaron, and others for a song from dealers who were willing to take my $25 and invest it in opening another box of Upper Deck.
I picked them up again this summer, trying to replace some vintage items I had sold off when I first got married. I've found a niche as a buyer, looking for sharp condition raw cards - I've found that a lot of high-end collectors will now only buy graded cards, while budget collectors will only buy off-grade cards, leaving a slightly depressed market for people willing to look at sharp, ungraded cards.
Unfortunately, I see the market for all but the top-graded cards taking a downturn. I also see the Set Registry having a monsterous effect on collecting, as collectors begin looking for high-end commons, slabbing them, and selling them for hundreds of dollars while off-grade Mantles go for a fraction of their book value. "Book Value" means close to nothing anymore, as the Set Registry will cause someone to lay out ungodly sums to complete their high-grade set, throwing "book value" out the window.
I think that as long as there are sports, there will be sports cards. As long as sports events are on TV, kids will watch. As long as kids watch sports, they will buy sports cards. And as long as people get older and wax nostalgic for their childhood, adults will collect expensive vintage cards. Whether it takes the form it takes today - with grading services inflating prices for high-end cards to ridiculous levels and DEFLATING prices for perfectly nice PSA-6 range cards, or whether it takes the form it USED to take, where a dealer and a buyer would sit in front of table and argue over whether a card was "mint" - remains to be seen.
I tend to think that sooner or later, people will stop spending $6 to get their $1 1960 Tex Clevenger card graded, and the set registry will go away for all but the most scarce and valuable sets. People will stop sending in their mid-grade 1950s Mantle and Mays cards because the market for graded cards will be limited to high-end collectors looking for 8s through 10s. You can see it already in the bigger auctions, where seeing a PSA 7 is unheard of with the exception of the oldest or most scarce cards.
I also think there will ALWAYS be a market for anything 1950s or earlier, in all grades, and so I've always recommended that people who collect any sports cards make sure that a decent percentage of their collection comes from those years. No matter what happens to Albert Pujols, Don Mattingly, Kevin Seitzer, or Ken Griffey, Willie Mays hit 660 home runs.
-Al
<< <i>Unfortunately, I see the market for all but the top-graded cards taking a downturn.
-Al >>
Maybe this is natures way of making these over printed recent cards have "vintage" type population in the future ......
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
As for the hobby dying out- as long as sports are played, there will be collectors. I notice that each time I want to quit, there's always something that keeps me in hobby- grading, ebay, autographed rc's, Mcfarlanes, autograph collecting, recently I'm trying to buy replica jerseys of various players I like to watch.
<< <i>Maybe this is natures way of making these over printed recent cards have "vintage" type population in the future ...... >>
These modern cards will never have the same vintage asspect as 1910-1950's have.. young and old who collect the new stuff now adays don't put their cards in their bikes spokes and store them in a shoe box with elastics wrapped around them etc.. They go straight into protective products or are already in a slab straight from a pack. All these 1/1 cards and such I don't think will be so special when there's already a thousand different 1/1's of Gretzky. Just like when they first started putting signed cards into packs, the first BAP Gretzky signed card was going for 1-2k but now that there's tons of other signed Gretzky cards to be had that one's not so special anymore and you can pick it up for around $200 or even less on eBay. I kind of drifted off topic..
Shane
No one forces a collector to buy every product. Collect what YOU LIKE.
Choices are good. The variety of products available today can appeal to set collectors, autograph/memoribilia collectors, and are available at varying price points for most budgets. Again, Collect what YOU LIKE.
There have been many threads on these boards discussing the pros/cons of modern card collecting. If you like vintage, try a few packs of Upper Deck Legends. Be positive about the hobby and enjoy the variety. Your right to choose is like your right to vote. You won't appreciate it until it's gone.
Again, Collect what YOU LIKE.
<< <i>When these guys are gone, I think that will be the end of the hobby. >>
Koby
I worry about that too, but as long as we keep the kids coming and give them something to see and do...
and there is sports to watch, and guys that sign, and cards to collect..."if you build it, they will come"
your friend
Mike
As long as there are sportcards, there will be collectors,
As long as there are collectors, there will be money to be made,
As long as there is money to be made, there will be a business errrrrrrr....ebay.....errrrrrrr......hobby.
I am 34
Collector of Vintage Golf cards! Let me know what you might have.
Chris
Josh
Unfocused, impulsive collector of everything ...
If you want to make real money in collectibles over the next few decades though, I'm guessing vintage video game systems will be the way to go. Video games are bigger now than ever, and those of us who grew up in the infancy of coin-op games are just starting to enter our prime earning years. Systems (both coin-op and console) are subject to degradation if not stored properly and maintained. I'm 30, BTW, and will never stop collecting. If prices go down or stagnate, I can just afford more of them
Joe
What's funny, is that last month I submitted an article to beckett basketball entirely about this subject. I'll try and get a copy of it when it hits the stores in mid-december. It talks about the 90 crash and that I think a similar crash in modern cards is currently starting to happen.
As for will the hoby die ... never. For basketball cards, all you need is about 5-10 serious collectors to have a hobby. Things are different with baseball, but with basketball ... you don't need many more collectors. Most collectors with big wallets usually don't even start till their mid-thirties ...
http://www.sportscards.info
<< <i>As for will the hoby die ... never. For basketball cards, all you need is about 5-10 serious collectors to have a hobby. Things are different with baseball, but with basketball ... you don't need many more collectors. Most collectors with big wallets usually don't even start till their mid-thirties ...
>>
Baseball needs at least twice as many serious collectors to have a hobby.
That is the sad thing about this hobby. It has deteriorated to the point of rich middle-age men trading cards back and forth amongst a small number of rich middle-age men.
This is true with basketball as well as baseball. "Big wallets" carry the day rather than a combination time, effort, passion for sports and knowledge. This hobby has become all about the 'big wallets" and the hobby freezes out most people under their mid-thirties as well as people of modest means.
"All you need is 5-10 serious collectors to have a hobby"?????
Sure.....keep believing this hobby is going to survive.
I agree with CandyFactory that the "Cambrian explosion" of cards in the 1990s has made it much more difficult to collect. In fact, I think we need a "Cambrian extinction" to weed out some of the sets. I especially dislike the sets that contain super-rare artifacts or cards. To me that's gambling - that's not collecting. I don't know what contemporary cards to collect myself. There is simply too much choice.
No one has mentioned the problem with sports. Sure basketball is doing fine, but both hockey and baseball aren't drawing like they used to. If you don't like a sport, you sure aren't going to collect stuff. IMO baseball is a dying sport - the American equivalent of cricket. Most kids prefer playing soccer and basketball - at least the ones I see.
Don't underestimate the "damage" to the hobby posed by Yu-gi-oh and Pokemon. My kid is into both and expects to spend his allowance on cards that run upward of $150 (I limit him to $15 BTW) on a card that was printed this year. Yet I swallow hard when I spend $20 on a raw card from the 1970s.
These cards are nothing like sports cards. For one thing, my kid doesn't like them because "they don't do anything" aka My Pete Rose attacks your Nolan Ryan with his special fireball attack! He doesn't understand that the people on my cards are living, breathing human beings with careers that you can follow and indeed, idolize.
He's missing something, and I haven't given up getting him interested in the hobby.
<< <i>Don't underestimate the "damage" to the hobby posed by Yu-gi-oh and Pokemon. My kid is into both and expects to spend his allowance on cards that run upward of $150 (I limit him to $15 BTW) on a card that was printed this year. Yet I swallow hard when I spend $20 on a raw card from the 1970s. >>
Maybe I'm being naive (I don't know any kids that age), but is the Pokemon/YGO thing not just another fad that will go the way of Cabbage Patch Dolls and hula hoops in a few years' time? The thing about sports cards is that they portray the athletes we idolize. Gaming cards aren't based in that kind of reality, and without that basis I can't see any long-term future for them.
That is true. I just can't see a 35 year old man paying mega bucks (or even any money at all) to collect those stupid cards. Maybe to make a buck, but not to truly collect. Just my thoughts.
Shane
<< <i>38
No one has mentioned the problem with sports. Sure basketball is doing fine, but both hockey and baseball aren't drawing like they used to. If you don't like a sport, you sure aren't going to collect stuff. IMO baseball is a dying sport - the American equivalent of cricket. Most kids prefer playing soccer and basketball - at least the ones I see.
>>
Basketball doing fine?
Baseball a dying sport?
Basketball WAS doing fine when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan roamed the courts.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
<< <i>Maybe I'm being naive (I don't know any kids that age), but is the Pokemon/YGO thing not just another fad that will go the way of Cabbage Patch Dolls and hula hoops in a few years' time? >>
The jury's out on that question. I hope so. Right now my kid carries around a stack of cards in his little hands that is worth more than my boxes of early 70's sports cards. It just doesn't feel right to me, but that's the way it is for kids in the 4-12 bracket right now.
As for my sports comments, I don't have any data to back them up - and much depends on the town (in Philly the Sixers and Eagles rule but the Flyers and Phillies don't). And in towns like St. Louis, baseball remains almost a religion (and rightly so, IMO, given the performance of the Cards this year).
My first set was the 1974 Topps set with the San Diego "Nationals" cards. My birthday falls in October and the local drugstore was clearing out its summer stock. Pops probably got a great deal on those wax boxes! Collected baseball, football, and some hockey through the early- to mid-eighties. Was taught to collect sets, although I now enjoy collecting sheer bulk!
Last year a kid I coached in American Legion baseball signed with the Bengals, so naturally I had to begin collecting the Donruss Elite football cards. It's been lunacy ever since. You name it, I've been buying it. My wife is wondering where this will ever end.
no