QUESTION FOR SEASONED SPRTSCARD DEALERS

Warman

In genereal, when is the best time to sell Rookie sportscards. When the rookie is hottest in their first year or afterwards? For example, I see Eli Manning cards selling for a premium now, will that continue or will his Rookie go up even further in the next couple of years? Thanks in advance.

slvnumber2

IMO you need to hit them quick and get out. Players like Manning and Roethlisberger are already selling at a premium, and the only realistic movement for them is down. Look at their SPx cards from this year, and they are in the $300-1200 range now. Much like the Vick cards and Lebron rookies they went down after starting out very high. I sold my SPx Lebron for close to $600 raw, and today you can't get that for it graded.

OTOH the best way to go is to go after rookies that start out in the $20-60 range and have some upside with less risk. A couple of years ago in 2001 the rookies like LT, Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson were going for $20-30 initially, but today they are all close to or over $60-100. Hope this helps.

joestalin

thats good advice above. You have to sell football when the guy is hot for the first time, after that no one will
care...Moss and Edgerrin are good examples, they had stellar rookie seasons and are still great after that
but people have moved on.

For baseball, right before the season when guys are getting called up. The baseball window is open
longer than football is.

Basketball is dead so don't worry about it

Kevin

Warman

Thank you so much. I really appreciate your advice. I'm an old newbie to the sportscard/memorabilia arena and have been thoroughly enjoying it. Thanks again!!!

helionaut

Two main things affect rookie pricing: performance and starting value. When a rookie is hyped up before he actually plays, card prices start out high. For #1 Draft Picks and other players who have some sort of reputation before reaching the top level, this is usually an indication to sell ASAP. When they do start playing, barring the miracle of exceeding expectations, the market will soften on them sooner or later. You might leave some money on the table, but better to get out while you can. But there are lots of other players who come in with low prices because they aren't part of the hype machine. No one knew how to pronounce "Roethlisberger" 3 months ago. Lots of people spent a lot of money on Manning and Rivers only. But for people who speculate on a range of rookie QBs, there was a bonanza brewing. In baseball, everyone was gaga over Jered Weaver, the assumed #1 pick. His name disappeared from a lot of wantlists on the day of the draft. Same with b-ball. While a disproportional number of dollars were spent chasing Lebron and Carmelo, other guys were picking up guys like Bosh and Wade early on. There's a lot more money to be made in buying low to sell high than in buying high hoping to sell higher.

There is also a "tidal" effect in price fluctuations over the long term for young players. Lots of people were clamoring for Pujols cards in 1991, and they were very hot when they hit. Then in 2002 prices softened even though he maintained his performance (almost identically). They started picking up last year, and this year exceeded even his 2001 prices, not only on top cards like Bowman Chrome, but overall. But I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of hangover during the winter and prices open soft next year. The market demands constant improvement, which, of course, is impossible. Maybe hitting 20 homers in April or something would give him a boost. But while the case of Pujols is rare in it's magnitude, it's not uncommon in the market in general. I thought JD Drew would break out on the field and in the hobby this year. I picked up a few rookies when he was tearing up spring training because I thought he'd finally reach his potential and become a bona fide star, but thankfully I didn't go nuts. I was not really wrong about him, but he didn't do as well as I hoped. But I did OK on Corey Dillon commons, so it evened out.

Warman

Thanks for all of the great insite! You guys are awesome! It's nice to know that there are such knowledgeable and helpful people out there. You are a credit to the hobby. I just hope that I can give back as well after I get more experience in the hobby. Thanks again!

SDavid

One thing to remember is that, in general, cards will sell for the most when the product is new and hot. Obviously, if a little known player gets hot, his prices will rise, but all other things being equal, the best time to sell is right after the product is released.