Down 3-0 Comeback Redux

Gemmy10

I was watching a special on ESPN Classics on the Red Sox beating the Yankees, the Curse, etc. with former Red Sox players, Bill Lee and Dwight Evans. They are showing it over and over and over again today. One of the points that someone made is that in order for the Yankees to choke they had to be there, and since they are constantly in the ALCS, that increases the odds of it happening.

I have another take. In MLB’s history there have been only 26 teams in World Series and the LCS combined that have gone down 3-0 in a best of 7 series. Out of those 26 teams, the Yankees are the first team (1/26=3.8%) which have done this. My point is some people might think the odds of this happening are higher than winning the lottery but being down 3-0 is a rare occurrence in itself.

Think about this…..usually when a team goes down 3-0 it is because the team that has lost 3 games is far inferior to the other team and doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell to pull a come back and win 4 in a row. In the case of the Red Sox they should have never gotten down 3-0 in the first place, but they were great enough to come back. Sure the Yankees choked by not being able to close them out, but I also think it’s a case of the Red Sox (they were favored) getting the job done.

zsz70

Gemmy,

Here's how I saw what happened.

Game 1- The Yankees caught a break with Curt Schilling hurt. However, Mike Mussina
was perfect through 6. The Yankees were punishing the Red Sox and almost
choked game 1 too.

Game 2- John Leiber was awesome. He pitched like vintage Greg Maddux. Hitting corners
and causing players to swing at balls, not strikes. The Yankees played great
and beat their nemisis Pedro.

Game 3- The Yankee bats were incredible. They pound Red Sox pitching again.
Just like they did in game 1. The Red Sox fans realize now that the Yankees
are just destroying a very good team.


So my point is that the Yankees were playing great baseball. They were
the 1927 Yankees through the first 3 games. They were dominating
a very good Red Sox team.

That's why this was the greatest choke of all time.

Gemmy10

<<That's why this was the greatest choke of all time.>>

I actually think a bigger choke is when the Red Sox were 1 strike away from winning the World Series in 1986. Even an MVP on the Sox had been named. You can't get closer than that. The Yankees with their high payroll makes this more embarrassing.

Gemmy10

My wife is more upset about the Yankees losing to Arizona in Game 7 but I don't agree with her because this was the Yankees archrival.

iamthegreatcornholio

“choke” is a very relative term. Series-wise, the Red Sox were slightly favored. If you locked yourself in a closet for that week, you’d come out to find the Red Sox won the series and you wouldn’t be surprised as they were favored. If you found out the Yankees won, you wouldn’t be too surprised as they were only a slight underdog.

After each game of the series, the series odds are evaluated. For example, after the Yankees won game 1, they became a slight favorite. After game 3, they became a very heavy favorite. I believe the exact odds for the Yankees after game 3 was 1-18 and 13-1 for the Red Sox.

So after game 3, the Yankees “choked” the next 4 games and lost the series. However, if the Red Sox had won game 3 and lost game 6, the Yankees wouldn’t have “choked” since they never had big lead in the series.

The irony of the series was that 6 games the favorite “choked”!

The Red Sox were favored to win game 1 - they lost

The Red Sox were favored to win game 2 - they lost

The Red Sox were favored to win game 3 - they lost

The Yankees were favored to win game 4 - they lost

The Red Sox were favored to win game 5 - they won

The Yankees were favored to win game 6 - they lost

The Yankees were favored to win game 7 - they lost

Brian

Gemmy10

Brian, interesting analysis.

DirtyHarry

Sox = greatest comeback.... Not total surprise in line with reg season % versus 2004 Yankees.

Choke = 86 Sox belly up performance versus AL after huge lead in July.