New Pinnacle article: What's Been Left Behind: 2001-2004

RYK

Link to article

Interesting article on what coins have not seen much price appreciation over the last four years.

Shamika

Flying Eagle MS67/PCGS? WOW!

Longacre

They beat my stock portfolio returns...

OnlyBuffalos

While impossible to track, coins with great eye-appeal have soared in value for the 2001-2004 period.

coltgus

You can't buy Flying Eagle cents in PR65 PCGS for $12,000. They are more like $20,000. The last 5 at Heritage auction went for :
1856 $21,275 and $23,000
1857 $25,300
1858 SL $17,825
1858 LL $16,675

TomB

The fatal flaw for this article, that really washes away some meaningful analysis, is that many of these prices are based on Bluesheet bids. Therefore, even though they state in the article that they assume the coins are average for the grade or better, they are using the pricing source for overgraded, problem, no eye appeal, bottoom of the barrel coins. What they say they want in a coin and the pricing source they are using have very little in common.

keets

some salient points off the top of my head:

1. we should always remember that these types of article are generally some kind of a marketing vehicle.
2. read what TomB said.
3. i doubt that all but a few of those coins are within the reach of the average collector, most would be in an advanced collection.
4. i always, always, always interpret undervalued to mean low demand. i guess that gets back to point #3.

al h.

bullseye

Their using Bluesheet desn't surprise me. I have been told by several people they are bluesheet buyers. So that is what they are accustomed to.


Mike

coinguy1

While a number of you have apparently found fault with the source of the price study/comparisons, it is important to keep in mind that there was/is no better alternative (that I'm aware of, at least).

As opposed to the CCDN which was utilized, the CDN does not list grades above 65 for mint state and Proof type coins. To have omitted coins above 65 in grade would have been equally, if not more imperfect, and certainly less informative.

Additionally, the same pricing source was used for the starting and ending dates of the price analysis, so any flaws in the listed values would be consistent within the study.

Finally, it's not like the author(s) failed to note the imperfections in listing and comparing such prices.



<< <i>Their using Bluesheet desn't surprise me. I have been told by several people they are bluesheetbuyers. So that is what they are accustomed to >>

Bullseye, I believe your sources are off base. Pinnacle is generally acknowledged as being a strong/sight-seen buyer of quality material.

I'm glad I don't work for Pinnacle at this moment, for if I did, I wouldn't feel so free to defend an article which I feel has gotten somewhat of an unfair reception.

EVillageProwler

I see they have a PCGS No Motto Seated dollar in MS 64 listed at $3,700. Isn't the going price for this coin more like $7,000 plus?

The 3 most common N/M dates in 64 are 42, 60 and 60-O. Good luck buying even a "market acceptable" NGC-slabbed specimen in 64 for $3,700. If you can buy one, you either got a rip or bought one that isn't even worth that much!

EVP

TomB

My take on the value that can be derived from this article is somewhat different than Mark's take on it, and I think that this might be due, at least partially, from my background in science. There is an acronym that we use, which I am sure that others are familiar with, that goes by GIGO. This stands for Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Please understand that I do not think the Pinnacle effort is garbage, nor do I believe that the work was sloppy. I simply think that one cannot extrapolate the relative value of superior coins using data mined from the very worst examples. Therefore, if your best source of information is so severely lacking then a real possibility is not only to not make any conclusions at all, but more likely to not even publish the analysis.

tradedollarnut

Using sheet bid to track the performance of groups of coins is not realistic. I can show quite a few bonafide examples of coins that have drastically increased in value with little or no change in bid.

Using that chart, one would think there was no increase in MS trade dollars. Yet I know first hand that there has been. For instance, in 1999 or so I paid $8750 for an MS65 1873. I know that a similar coin sold this year for around $13,000. That's almost a 50% increase, yet no change in bid?

commemguy

Thank you for your comments on this article. Although the analysis is not mine, I think that the gist of the article is what is important. Pinnacle is not making representations that coins can be bought or sold at these levels, nor that we or anyone trades coins at these levels. Prices changes in bluesheet do reflect overall trends in the market in many ways. The coins included in this analysis provide an overall cross-section of the market that have not substantially increased in value, despite the general consensus that the market is “Hot! Hot! Hot!” Bluesheet is a wholly acceptable tool for this type of analysis, albeit imperfect.

Bear

With all of its inherent faults, I believe that the charts are one piece in a complex puzzle.

I found it interesting and helpful. Then again, Im just a simple bear.

EagleEye

I think a much more useful pricing guide for this type of analysis is the Numismedia Fair market price guide which reports lowest prices advertised. The bullsheet is worthless in reporting coins that don't trade. Heck there is only 1 MS67 non-1856 Flying Eagle graded by PCGS, and it sold for $40K two years ago.

roadrunner

Using that chart, one would think there was no increase in MS trade dollars. Yet I know first hand that there has been. For instance, in 1999 or so I paid $8750 for an MS65 1873. I know that a similar coin sold this year for around $13,000. That's almost a 50% increase, yet no change in bid?

Yup, and you can make a list of hundreds or thousands of coins with the same issue. It took CDN 2 years to finally raise the price of MS63 and 64 No drapery halves, despite the fact that during those 2 years several traded for 50-70% over CDN. Following the Jung sale, they finally had to buckle under and essentially double the price of the coin in both grades. There are a handful of seated dates on the CDN that bring 2 to 3X the listed value yet the prices don't get adjusted. It doesn't mean they haven't been rising in price though.

roadrunner

roadrunner

Part of the problem with showing advancing prices is the number of dogs that both PCGS and NGC have turned over the past 3-4 years.
The 1837 nd half dime in MS67 went down for reasons like that. You can find very iffy NGC coins for as low as $8-10K vs a bid of $15K.
Even at $22,000 several years ago, that type seems overpriced. Part of it was the 12 NGC coins dragging down the value of the 2 PCGS coins. This is all part of the equation. The pretenders drag down the listed or quoted "prices" of the real ones.

roadrunner

puff

<< <i>Their using Bluesheet desn't surprise me. I have been told by several people they are bluesheet buyers. So that is what they are accustomed to.


Mike >>



Bullseye.... I don't know who the "several" people were that told you the above, but I can tell you from someone that has bought from Pinnacle for close to 10 years that whoever it was has their heads where the sun doesn't shine, and it is false information.....

In the last 3 years I worked on, and built this 40 coin late date set of Walkers which is currently the # 4 all time finest.....

About 2/3rds of those coins were purchased from Pinnacle Rarities over this 3 year period. I paid anywhere from 3X's blue sheet, to about 6X's blue sheet for all of the Walkers I bought from Pinnacle. A couple of months ago I sold this same complete set to Pinnacle and actually made a small profit from "ALL" of the coins I purchased from Pinnacle except for 3, which I broke even on... The remaining 1/3rd of the coins I didn't buy from Pinnacle I made a "smaller" profit on them.

So my point is whoever told you that Pinnacle pays blue sheet prices for coins might have had a less than honorable motive if it came from another dealer, or if it was a disgruntled collector, etcetera...... But I think anyone here that has ever bought from Pinnacle will tell you that you would be hard pressed finding another dealer that would treat you more fair when buying or selling coins from Pinnacle Rarities. Not to mention the service which I can assure you is unsurpassed by anyone.

BTW.... I did this same thing Pinnacle about 7 years ago with a complete set of PCGS Buffalo's with an average grade of ms65.... But at that time I just sold about half of those to Pinnacle and the other half to another dealer that I had purchased Buffalo's from.... I made an overall profit from Pinnacle, and broke about even from the other dealer.

Ronyahski

<< <i>"Prices changes in bluesheet do reflect overall trends in the market in many ways. The coins included in this analysis provide an overall cross-section of the market that have not substantially increased in value, despite the general consensus that the market is “Hot! Hot! Hot!” Bluesheet is a wholly acceptable tool for this type of analysis, albeit imperfect. " >>



Are you trying to extrapolate Bluesheet movements in price to to price movements of coins of better quality - query based on statement in the Pinnace article...




<< <i>"There are a few other assumptions that we made that you should be aware of: the coins are average to slightly above-average for the grade and that "real world" trading levels are anywhere from 10% to 30% above these prices (which are taken from the 9/21/01 and 9/17/04 issues of the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter, respectively)." >>



In the real world, if you are implying that better quality coins track at levels 10% to 30% higher than bluesheet, well that is just not accurate. And in the real world, you may retail bluesheet quality coins at 10% to 30% above bluesheet, but that says little for prices of better quality coins. When quality coins rise in price, that does not necessarily mean that blueshet prices rise with them.

If your point is simply that some sight unseen coins aren't hot, I can buy that. But "an overall cross section", I can't buy that.